Thomas Small

But maybe that's more theatrics than we think.

And what's actually happening is that having mistakenly

at the time that the ceasefire deal was being negotiated, kind of connected Lebanon and Hezbollah to an Iranian deal, which the Israelis immediately said, look, we haven't agreed to this.

Hezbollah is a separate issue and it's between us and them.

This has nothing to do with Iran.

There should not be an Iranian backed proxy in Lebanon on our border.

We do not need the permission of the government in Tehran to attack the people who are attacking us, et cetera.

So when the ceasefire deal that came into effect in early April was being negotiated, it seems from what I understand, almost like accidentally, inadvertently, incompetently, the two issues were connected and Iran could say,

Look, no progress on the Hezbollah front or any outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah is a de facto violation of any ceasefire on our part.

So we can start the war again on that side.

So they're trying to disconnect those two files.

So it's not that they have to be both solved at the same time.

That is the Iranian position.

They have to be solved at the same time.

That is not the Israeli position, and it is really not the American position either.

Not really.

Everyone would love those two sort of situations to be disconnected.

The question is, can Iran be compelled to agree to that disconnection?

I think Israel's attack over the weekend on Iran, to which Iran waved the white flag, you know, it basically was like, okay, okay, okay, we won't fight back.

They pretended that it was a great victory for themselves, of course, but it definitely was not.