Toby Howell

I do think that part of the reason the market has had this run up is optimism about the Iran war, even though the straightforward moves is still closed.

Trump has floated that a deal was very close over.

The ceasefire has held, albeit delicately, for about a week now.

So investors have expected that pace of the war to de-escalate rather than escalate.

That seems to be the trajectory that they are

betting on.

So that's number one.

Number two, strong corporate earnings.

I mean, we floated it at the beginning of the week, but JP Morgan, Goldman, Citibank of America, all the big banks absolutely crushed it.

They reported not only strong earnings and profits for their own businesses, but also reported that the consumer was still busting out the plastic.

They're still swiping their credit cards, spending at a robust rate.

And finally, the third thing, AI optimism.

I mean, the market goes as AI goes still up until this point.

TSMC reported blowout earnings.

They are the biggest chip maker in the world.

Tesla's been teasing a new chip.

It seems like the software, you know, trade, AI trade that has been powering much of the stock market came roaring back these past couple of days.

So that three-headed monster is why we're seeing markets just rallying to the moon.

Not to rain on your parade with a little bit of a nuance, Neil, but two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies are actually still lower than they were before the war began.

So we are maybe seeing some of that concentration, some of that top heaviness, you know, the stalwarts of the market, NVIDIA, American Eagle.