Tom Orlik

speaker

158 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard Apr 2025

Tom Orlik’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Lots More on a Massive, Historical, Stagflationary Shock · 4 Apr 2025 podcast

Additional bonus if we trade with China, that's gonna be a force for market reform in China, and maybe even, whisper it quietly, uh a force for democratic reform in China.

That's not how things played out over the years that followed.

China developed really quickly, up to the point where it became a rival to the United States for that biggest economy in the world, biggest geopolitical power spot.

And China didn't reform its economy.

It didn't become more market-based, and it certainly didn't reform its political system.

And the US had a huge trade deficit.

And a lot of that trade deficit was with China.

So jobs were being lost, opportunities were being lost, and even worse, they were being lost to America's biggest geopolitical rival.

And that just doesn't make a huge amount of sense.

And I think the Trump team and Trump himself deserve a bunch of credit for calling that out back in 2016 and saying.

This isn't the deal we signed up for in the nineteen nineties.

This isn't the deal we signed up for when we invited China into the WTO.

Something has to change.

The big question is, well, now we've got these sweeping tariffs.

Is this gonna deliver the realignment which Trump wants or

Could there be

A sort of significant adverse consequence for the United States.

Could the United States end up just cutting itself off from the rest of the world and actually accelerating its own decline, its own fading as a global power, rather than restoring American greatness as President Trump intends?

So it's a difficult question to answer because we just haven't seen such big tariffs introduced in recent history.

So we don't have much data we can use to estimate the impact.

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