Tom Orlik
speaker
158 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard Apr 2025
Tom Orlik’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
That said
We're making best efforts.
What we've done is we've taken a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy.
It's the same model which some of the economists at the World Trade Organization use, and we've used it to estimate the impact of this tariff shock.
And if we focus for a moment on the China piece of it, well, if you put sixty percent US China tariffs into the model.
It tells you that that pretty much wipes out US-China trade.
And that's pretty consequential, right?
The world's two biggest economies.
A Chinese economy which is the home to major US supply chains for Apple and others.
If those two economies just stop trading with each other, that's a huge, huge shock to the system.
Thinking about the rest of the world, well, most places haven't been hit by such high tariffs, but still a pretty significant shock.
Europe, for example, now facing twenty percent tariffs when they sell to the United States for
If you plug that into the big model, well, that tells you Europe exports to the United States dropped by around fifty percent.
Um so these are huge consequential negative shocks to the global trade system.
Yeah, I think it's a huge uncertainty.
So if we think about Trump won and the trade war with China back then, a couple of things happened.
So firstly, we had dollar appreciation, and that offset some of the impact of the tariffs.
Secondly, we had transshipment.
So China carried on selling to the United States, but the goods went through Vietnam or they went through Mexico.
and that meant they dodged the tariffs.
Showing 41–60 of 158 · page 3 of 8
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