Tom Orlik

speaker

158 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard Apr 2025

Tom Orlik’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Lots More on a Massive, Historical, Stagflationary Shock · 4 Apr 2025 podcast

And thirdly, we had

retailers absorbing some of the shock in lower margins rather than passing them on to consumers.

So all of these things meant

Tariffs on China went up twenty five percent.

But the US consumer didn't really feel the shock.

And I think that's maybe how the Trump administration are thinking about it this time around.

This time around, though, I think there's gonna be some pretty significant differences.

So the first difference is, well, the economic textbooks tell us when you apply tariffs, the dollar should appreciate.

Yeah.

But guess what?

This time round it's depreciating.

So that isn't gonna offset the tariff shock on inflation.

Yeah.

It's gonna amplify the tariff shock on inflation.

Secondly, this time round it's not just China, it's everybody.

Everybody's hit being hit with the shock at the same time.

And that means that that transshipment strategy, sending goods via Mexico or Vietnam, that's not gonna work.

You're still gonna get hit with tariffs.

And then thirdly, well if you're hitting everybody at the same time

Can a Walmart or a Target really absorb all of that in narrower margins, or is it just gonna have to start passing it on to the consumer?

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