Tony Barry

You know, we need one nation now.

six months' time, you know, that that might all change.

But at the moment, you know, we're seeing at least half of their vote are totally locked in.

That would mean the floor, One Nation floor, is around 15% thereabouts, which is a lot, lot higher than it's been nationally.

Yeah, I think when you go back to those factors, 55% say Australia's heading in the wrong direction, 56% say the next generation will have a worse future than their parents, and then that other item about, you know, burn it all down 15%, I think, you know,

There's a bedrock there for One Nation and the Liberal and National brand is very, very damaged at the moment.

Voters have not forgiven them for their past performance much recently and there's no expectation from the polling I see that that's going to improve.

Farrah is obviously a regional seat where you'd expect the coalition to perform better.

But you go to those urban seats, I think, you know, they're going to start eating to a bit of a Labor vote

most of their vote is coming off the Liberal National Poll, the absolute majority of it.

But we're finding about 15% of One Nation's vote is actually off Labor voters who likewise feel they're being let down.

So I think both parties have got a rocky road ahead.

But certainly, you know, the coalition are fighting for their survival at the moment.

And there's absolutely no guarantee.

I don't believe it's cyclical.

I think it's deeper than that.

And it's bordering on existential.