Tyler Gardner
speaker
4,362 appearances
10 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 7 Sep
Tyler Gardner’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 10 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 5.
Appearances
The order in which your investment returns happen matters enormously in retirement in a way it really doesn't matter that much during accumulation.
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During accumulation, when you're earning, saving, and not withdrawing, the order of your annual returns doesn't really matter.
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A portfolio that returns plus 20%, plus 20%, negative 10%, plus 10, plus 10, over five years, ends up in the exact same place as one that returns negative 10%, positive 10%, positive 10%, positive 20%, positive 20%.
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Same compound average, same ending balance.
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But in retirement, when you're withdrawing the same dollar amount every year, regardless of what the market did, the order of those returns, unfortunately, changes everything.
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Here's why.
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If the market drops 30% in your first year of retirement and you withdraw $80,000 anyway, you've withdrawn $80,000 from a portfolio that's already shrunk to $700,000 from a million.
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You've reduced your remaining portfolio not just by the drop and not just by the withdrawal, but by the interaction of the two.
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That $80,000 you withdrew is now 11.4% of the remaining portfolio instead of 8%.
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You've effectively raised your withdrawal rate by selling assets at the worst possible price.
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Now, if in contrast, the market drops 30% in your 10th year, same withdrawal pattern, same average returns over the full retirement, the damage is dramatically less.
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Because by year 10, your portfolio has had nine more years to compound.
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The 30% drop hits a much larger base.
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The forced withdrawal during the drop is a much smaller percentage of the remaining portfolio.
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The portfolio recovers and continues to fund your life.
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Same returns, same withdrawals, different outcomes.
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The only variable is when the drop happens.
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Now, here's the part that almost nobody draws out properly.
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The real danger window is actually quite short.
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The vast majority of sequence of returns risk in a 30-year retirement is concentrated in the first 5 to 10 years.
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Showing 1781–1800 of 4,362 · page 90 of 219
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