Viktor Shvets

speaker

213 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Nov 2024

Viktor Shvets’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Lots More on the Coming 20-Year Storm with Viktor Shvets · 29 Nov 2024 podcast

I mean, they just carry on all the time.

Carry on all the time.

So if you think of inauguration in January, within 12 months, everybody will be in a midterm mode.

Everybody will be discussing what's going to happen to midterm.

So if you're not careful and you're causing significant frictions in the labor market, significant tightening, some inflation coming back, you have to roll back your policies.

But there are other areas.

Capital markets is a classic example.

That's why you get your Treasury Secretary, a hedge fund manager, because at the end of the day, markets are bigger than individuals and they're bigger even than the underlying economies.

So any distress that you're going to see in risk premia, in mortgage rates, in interest rates, or anything like that, they will have to pedal back a lot.

So what that basically implies, there is a friction here between political objectives, what you're trying to do, what you

You genuinely believe, and I think Trump probably does believe it's a good idea to expel those people out of the country, an economic reality, inflationary reality that you're gonna face.

Don't also forget commercial and corporate interests, like he's talking about getting rid of Chips Act or IRA Act.

Over 80% of the money in those acts went into the red districts.

Uh, which are represented in Congress, which has a tiny majority, you really are looking at only four or five seats they're going to have in a majority in the Congress.

So there is constant tension.

Now, that tension will create volatilities inevitably.

They're going to create currency volatilities, they're going to create equity volatilities, interest rate volatilities.

So that's inevitable.

But the hope is that the gun rails between electoral, cycle,

Tiny majority in a Congress between corporate interest, the capital markets, stickiness of institutions.

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