Lots More on the Coming 20-Year Storm with Viktor Shvets
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news. Joe, it started. It started. It's what, like two, three weeks later?
Yeah, so he had yeah, three weeks basically since the election and the trade war, at least to some extent, maybe a trade skirmish. We don't really know it's gonna happen. It's kinda begun. It started last night.
Yeah, so Trump uh he didn't tweet, he said on Truth Social, is that what it's called?
And by the way, I respect that he still uses Truth Social.
Yeah, kind of a slap in the face to Elon Musk, I guess.
I did a deadlift. One, two, three. Gemini.
Okay, good. What's uh barges.
This is an after school special, except
I've decided I'm gonna base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US.
Where's the best squid ink pasta?
These are the the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world? No, I No,
I think that like in a couple of years the AI will do a really good job of making the Odlaunch podcast. And people say, I don't really need to listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. We do have Cha Ching? Perfect guest? Welcome to Lots More where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now.
Because even when odd lots is over, there's always lots more.
And we really do have the perfect guest.
But he said he's thinking about or he's going to impose ten percent tariffs on goods from China and twenty five percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada for some reason.
By the way, we're recording this November twenty sixth, Tuesday. And he specifically tied those tariff threats to Mexico and Canada to which various conditions that theoretically can be met related to immigration crackdowns and the flow of drugs across the border.
Yeah, so this is the thing that's being debated in markets right now. To what extent is this a negotiating tactic?
What macro uncertainties are triggered by Trump’s tariff and immigration policies?
You know, you come in with a big threat and you start from there and you sort of whittle it down, or again, how serious is Trump actually about this?
Well, I think it's both domestic and international, in a sense that if you think what drives it and why the likes of Bernie Sanders and the likes of Donald Trump red the mood of American people much more than institutionalized people like Biden or Harris, i is really to do what I I I describe, actually Danny Roderick of Harvard University described as a political trilogy. Of global economy. You cannot have globalization and economic integration, nation states, and democracy all at the same time. You can pick up two out of the three, but you can't have all three, and you can't have all at the same time. So if you think of domestic and international pressures, I think Trump is reflecting both of them.
If you go back in time, it's really Paul Walker deregulating global. Global financial system, followed by Bill Clinton in 1994 NAFTA, followed by China entering WTO in 2001, have created an environment where people feel justifiably or not, but they feel that their jobs, their livelihoods somehow were stolen by other people. And so this is a response to that to say to people, I am I am looking after you. I am trying to protect it. But at the same time, there is also an inflationary element that I think Trump fully understands, or he must fully understand, that the principal reason why Biden lost was the inflation. And so the question is: when you start imposing those tariffs, you have to remember that up to half of all US imports are intermediate.
Goods. So if you actually impose tariffs, you're taxing your own manufacturers and your own exporters. So there is an element of domestic and international.
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