Warren Hogan
speaker
104 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 29 Jul
Warren Hogan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But, look, the RBA aren't going to do that because that's just not their disposition.
I mean, the last board appointment that came in earlier this year was an academic who –
His whole career is based on central banks doing less, not more.
And there's just all this funky new age thinking and academic economics in the last decade that basically points to less, not more.
So they're going to certainly sit back in August and the market's gone that way very quickly.
The question is what's next.
So if these cost pressures do not dissipate but demand in the economy gets weaker, then
then I think that's sort of the recession scenario for early next year and that we may be talking about rate cuts by the middle of next year.
And I think a few prominent economists have that view.
I don't think we get that rate cut unless it's a recession.
I think the Reserve Bank, while it's not keen to be aggressive or early on rate hikes, the lesson from last year is they're not going to be early on rate cuts.
The only thing that will get them cutting rates is the economy literally coming off a cliff.
What's the most likely outcome?
I actually see plenty of signs of resilience because the work I've done that I think new, as opposed to how to conduct monetary policy and various other fantasies, is about the shift in the demographics and what that does to the balance of supply and demand for labor.
This is getting more traction in certain macro circles in the Northern Hemisphere.
In fact, the original idea came from a book written by Charles Goodhart in 2019 called The Great Demographic Reversal.
He's done the follow-up book that's released in the last six weeks, which I would recommend.
And essentially, the idea here is that what's different now to what we've known for the last 30 years is that we have shortages of labor, not excess supply of labor.
And of course, we're seeing that every day where we're getting employment growth, whereas the kind of slowdowns we've seen either at the start of this year or in 2021.
3, 24 after those rate hikes, we would have seen net job losses at some stage and unemployment rising a lot more.
Showing 81–100 of 104 · page 5 of 6
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