William Bengen
speaker
108 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 25 Jul
William Bengen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Probably still not what some would consider a well-diversified portfolio, but it's getting there.
Probably means my research still understates the true withdrawal rate by a little bit.
I suspect the number 4.7 could eventually become 5 if you throw in gold and commodities and emerging markets and alternative investments and Bitcoin, digital currency, who knows what can go on the portfolio today.
Sure.
Across 100 years of retirees, the average has been a little bit over 7%, which surprises people a lot because they're stuck on a 4% rule, and all of a sudden 7% is an average, and there are people who are able to take out double digits.
Of course, if you retire in July of 1932 and the stock market goes off 100% the next quarter, you're off to a very good start with your retirement plan.
And that's what happened.
That's where people got 15, 16% withdrawal rates.
Not realistic to expect anything like that today, but I think we can do a lot better than 4.7% in this environment.
Yeah, Michael's a good friend and a brilliant guy.
And back in 2008, he published in his newsletter a chart which tracked the valuation of the stock market using the Shiller-Cape cyclically adjusted P-E ratio against...
withdrawal rate on the other end of it.
And when you take a look at those two charts, they seem like when one's going up, the other goes down, one goes up, down, the other goes up.
It appears to be a very strong correlation between stock market valuation and eventual withdrawal rate.
As a good example of that, the person retired at the bottom of the market after the great financial crisis back in April of 2009.
My calculations indicate they could have taken out 8% because the stocks were so cheap at that time.
And that's the cheapest they've been over the last 30 years.
We haven't approached that since.
Well, I knew from the beginning that inflation had a role to play because
The worst case scenario, the 4.7% was generated by the person who retired in October of 1968.
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