William Bengen
speaker
108 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 25 Jul
William Bengen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And they hit two bear markets back to back, deep ones, and then got hit with very high levels of inflation for over a decade, which forced them to increase their withdrawals.
You would think, though, that 1929 through 32, where the stock market dropped twice as much, would have been worse, but it wasn't because it was a deflationary period.
Actually, you were able to reduce withdrawal by 10% a year, and that offset the huge losses in the stock market and made 68 the worst case, not 32.
Yeah, it could be.
I think in today's environment, I'd probably be recommending something around 5.5%, which is low historically compared to the average, but it's a lot better than 4.7%.
It's about 15% to 20% higher, which ain't chicken feed.
Yeah.
And of course, if the inflation rate were to take off and we enter a period like the 70s, that would reduce the withdrawal rate significantly.
Don't know what's going to happen in that picture.
It looks like for the time being, inflation is at a reasonable level, but who knows?
Sure.
Well, if you encounter a stock bear market early in retirement and your portfolio drops 30% compared to another portfolio, which might have been making gains, you're behind the eight ball and you never really catch up.
So that early stock market declines reduce withdrawal rate very significantly.
Yeah, usually by the first 10 to 12 years, the die is cast as far as your withdrawal plan goes.
The success withdrawal plan all is owed primarily to events occurring in the first 10 to 12 years.
There are exceptions.
People who retired in the late 50s into a low inflation environment,
And within a decade, they were facing very high inflation and had to scramble to get back to plan.
So events mid-retirement, if they're severe enough, can affect the withdrawal rate, but not as much usually as the early ones.
You know, you can do those kinds of adjustments.
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