Zvi Mowshowitz
speaker
128 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Zvi Mowshowitz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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I want to be clear.
Like when I say like who knows which one is wrong, I I very strongly believe that the polymarket uh line is the one that is biased in the situation due to the access issues.
Whereas I think that the line at the other markets is much more effective of what the line kind of should in some air quote sense be
No, not fifty percent this year.
No, but no in the com like you what's your give us the uh give
I think that the skeptical line on productivity growth is we're talking about, you know, percents per year every year over the course of ten to twenty years.
And I think that's sort of the the ultimate bear case for AI just doesn't do what we want it or expect it or hope it would do.
In the bull case.
Singularity, super intelligence, world completely transformed.
Great.
Uh
So it's gonna vary a lot from trader to trader, from house to house.
And you know, a remarkably large number of people just don't do this.
And that's clear by because you look at the financial markets over time.
I mean, I haven't followed the most recent lecture like 2022 that carefully in terms of the reactions, but you you definitely see these delays, and like if there was a lot of participants in the market who were keeping close eyes and incorporating that money, that information instantly, that wouldn't happen.
So
The right ways to do it involve things like setting up automatic interfaces with these websites to just pull things into your spreadsheets, right?
So you have your Excel spreadsheets that contain all of the county by county data from all of the returns.
And then ideally you want to figure out what that implies about the results.
And the technically correct way to do that is a Bayesian calculation.
Showing 101–120 of 128 · page 6 of 7
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