Is this what a forever war looks like?
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ABC Listen. Podcasts, radio, news, music and more. Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis, the host of Politics Now. And sometimes it can be hard to cut through all the noise from the Canberra bubble. But on the Politics Now podcast, bursting it wide open is our core business. I'm joined by the brightest minds at the ABC to break down the polyspeak and have a chat about what's actually going on behind the scenes. It's called Politics Now and you can find it on ABC Listener.
Donald Trump's MOU with Iran was meant to stop and then end the war, but now it's barely worth the paper it's written on. Bombing has resumed, the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and now the conflict is expanding with the blockade of the Red Sea. So, is this what a forever war looks like? Today, Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator with the US State Department, on the limited options Donald Trump has left. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.
There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. As far as I'm concerned, it's over. Donald Trump ordered strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night. This video appears to show the Iranian missile strike that killed at least two American soldiers over the weekend. The unidentified remains of a third person have also been found in the area, while another American was killed in northern Iraq.
Aaron, let's start back on June the 14th, which happened, of course, to be Donald Trump's 80th birthday. This is when the United States and Iran came up with this MOU, which has not stood the test of time.
Yeah, it was signed virtually. I think the date was June 17. I'm sure the president wanted it to be on his birthday. Yes.
I'm very happy to say the deal's all signed. and the strain is already partially open, because you never know what happens. But I think it's going to be open, and I think it's going to be freesailing.
Look, this was a hastily, badly negotiated document. It's more a memorandum of misunderstanding than it is a memorandum of understanding. The Iranians clearly had better negotiators and lawyers. than the American team. Paragraph 5 all but conceded the notion that Iran and Oman will have joint administration over the Straits of Hormuz. It basically gave the Iranians a lifting of the naval blockade, a cessation of hostilities, and an unsanctioning of Iranian oil in exchange for no concessions from the Iranians. It was only a matter of time before this thing cratered
Yeah, Clause 5 of that MOU, as you note, about the Strait of Hormuz, that really has caused a problem, hasn't it? Because it was so open to interpretation. The language was so imprecise in that clause.
Yeah, I mean, it's true. The Iranians weaponized geography. They have made proximity a vulnerability. And the straits are now, in their view, the key to maintaining deterrence, leverage, and and maybe even a cash cow, I think they may be overplaying their hand. It is a strategy ultimately over time that will backfire because the ore producers and the exporters will find alternative means of delivery to bypass the straits. The Saudis and the Emiratis already have alternative pipelines, but it may take four or five years.
Yeah.
to deal with these pipelines.
What happened after Donald Trump’s MOU with Iran and why did it fail?
That's the downside of what the Iranians are doing.
But just noting as well, Aaron, that after this MOU was signed, it was a great opportunity for Iran to get its oil out, and it did that, didn't it? It took the opportunity to make a lot of money in a short period of time.
Yep, over the course of the last month. And they also have now more storage capacity, which is now built up, which will see them through if this lasts one month, two months, three months, four months. Eventually, it will undermine the Iranian economy. But what is eventually? I mean, we're now July 28th, I think it's the beginning of the fifth month of this war. It could easily go on. This new normal could easily last several more months. There is this notion, and I don't know, I understand the logic, I just don't think that, I think the Iranians are mistaken.
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