The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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Who is Gavin Baker and what is his role in the podcast?
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one state sponsor. I'm sorry. All in podcast in the world. The number one podcast. Oh, sorry. Stray bullets. Here we go. Back on the program. Our guy, Gavin Baker, is here. You know him from a treaties management does private and public four billion under management. And lots to talk about with you. GB1. Good to have you here. GB1 is here.
What are the financial challenges faced by Nvidia and CoreWeave?
Solo, dolo. CoreWeave IPO happening soon by the time you get this. And NVIDIA, you were there at NVIDIA. You are the one analyst, Gavin, that Jensen pulled up. You're loved by Jensen. What's it like to be loved by Jensen? Tell us everything.
Well, so first thing he did, there was Alfred was from Sequoia.
Mm-hmm.
And then they had a nice sell-side guy whose name is escaping me at the moment. But it is technically true. I was the only public equity investor on the buy side that Jensen asked. I've known Jensen for 25 years. He's kind of the same guy he ever was, just maybe slightly calmer.
Gavin, can I ask you, all this stuff where they talk about the... balance sheet questions that some folks have about NVIDIA, some of the accounts receivable issues and stuff. Is there any legitimacy to those issues, the round tripping? What's the real story of someone that peers into that P&L and understands it?
Yeah, so I guess maybe take them in reverse order. I really don't think, like if NVIDIA had not put any money into CoreWeave, not put any money into kind of other of these neoclouds, I don't think it would have impacted their revenues at all. At all.
They would have sold... More to Meta and more to Tesla.
Yeah, more to Meta, more to Amazon, more to Microsoft. So the reason they did it is even three years ago, it was a very stable three-player oligopoly from the cloud computing players in Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. And if you're NVIDIA, that's not great to have just three big customers. Those big clouds, particularly in 2023, when there was such a rush to get GPUs, they each kind of want to do their own kind of custom version of an NVIDIA server. And NVIDIA, by giving kind of like a standard reference design, which someone like CoreWeave bought to CoreWeave, you got GPUs in the market a lot faster. And when you use NVIDIA's reference design, it's generally smoother and easier to stand them up. And so the big three kind of cloud computing hyperscalers, their incremental share of revenue went down and that was nothing but good for Nvidia because they now have kind of a more fragmented base of buyers who have less power over them.
But what does it mean, Gavin, when like the accounts receivable jumps from a billion five or so to like five and a half billion year over year? Is that concerning or that's just business?
So look, it's never good. But if you think NVIDIA has gone through the biggest product transition in history in terms of Hopper, you know, this is a business doing tens of billions of dollars at scale. There's never been a product transition like this in the history of semiconductors going from Hopper to Blackwell.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Who is Gavin Baker and what is his role in the podcast?
1:15–1:43
2
What are the financial challenges faced by Nvidia and CoreWeave?
1:43–5:43
3
How is the US-China AI conflict evolving?
5:43–16:44
4
What are the implications of the CoreWeave IPO?
16:44–52:39
5
How is the US handling the AI Cold War with China?
52:39–1:23:00
6
What caused 'Signalgate' and why is it significant?
1:23:00–1:25:00
7
What is the controversy surrounding El Salvador deportations?
1:25:00–1:27:39
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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