The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
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Who are the guests and hosts in The Great Tariff Debate?
He's got a new book with Derek Thompson, Abundance, and he co-founded Vox in 2014. And he's our guest here today before Trump ships him to El Salvador. Please welcome Ezra Klein.
How are you, sir? Glad to be here in my final hours of freedom.
Okay, great. Good to be here. Sorry, sex. And with us, of course, Larry Summers, economist, former Treasury Secretary under Clinton, former Director of the National Economic Council under Obama, and the President of Harvard from 2001 to 2006. Thanks for coming, Larry. Good to be with you. Okay, we have a lot to get to here. So we might as well talk about the big news of tariffs.
What recent tariff changes did Trump announce and what was the market reaction?
It's day 80 of the Trump presidency, a second presidency, his second term. And Trump tweeted that he paused tariffs for everyone but China on Wednesday. Basically, let me just queue up the details, Larry, and then we'll get your take on all of this. Just one week after Liberation Day, Trump announced on Truth Social that, in effect, he was raising tariffs against China 125% based on their lack of respect, quote unquote, instead of negotiating, and that he was pausing reciprocal tariffs on all other countries for 90 days. And markets ripped 10% after he posted this. And today, Thursday, when we taped, There's been a massive sell-off on Wall Street, so the rollercoaster ride continues. What it will be on Friday when you consume this podcast is anyone's guess. S&P is down 5% today. For context, the S&P was at 5,700 pre-liberation day, so about a 9% drop after these wild swings. And in fact, this has been historic volatility. Here are the top
Sell-offs in history, as you can see, three of them came during Black Monday in 1987. Three of them came during the financial crisis. Three of them came during COVID. And coming in 11th is Trump's tariffs. Also, in the gainers, you have these big rebounds. Wednesday's 9.5% recovery was number three. The administration says this was all part of a master plan. We'll hear more about that later. And that they laid a trap for China. They laid a trap. Besant has been the spokesperson during this retreat or... whatever we're going to call the pause, and quote, this was driven by the president's strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along. I don't think we need to play the clip. That's the gist of it.
The White House account then tweeted in all caps, my favorite way to tweet, do not retaliate and you will be rewarded. Wall Street Journal, on the other side, posted a story about why Trump blinked. They chronicled the decision as being affected by Jamie Dimon, who went on Fox to express fears of recession while saying the tariffs were valid and that he knew that Trump and cabinet would be watching him on Fox. Other banking executives who felt they didn't have a lot of influence in this administration, according to the Wall Street Journal, started lobbying Republican lawmakers.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Who are the guests and hosts in The Great Tariff Debate?
1:24–2:03
2
What recent tariff changes did Trump announce and what was the market reaction?
2:03–9:42
3
How do experts evaluate the economic impact of Trump's tariffs?
9:42–21:02
4
What are the arguments for and against bringing China into the WTO?
21:02–29:45
5
What should be the measure of success for US trade policy in the next two years?
29:45–39:40
6
How do supply chain dependencies affect US economic and national security?
39:40–59:30
7
Is the Trump administration's tariff strategy chaotic or strategically sound?
59:30–1:14:39
8
What are the recession risks and future outlook related to tariff policies?
1:14:39–2:01:42
Speakers
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