Show notes
Senior housing is posting record absorption while new supply sits at Great Financial Crisis lows. Michael Bull, CCIM talks with Arick Morton, Chief Executive Officer of NIC MAP, about what that gap means for owners, investors, and developers.
Arick walks through the numbers behind the demand story: median occupancy back near 93%, more than 30 of the top 100 metros running a 95% median, transaction volume touching all-time highs, and price per unit up meaningfully. Cap rates have compressed into the 6 handles for stabilized Class A and B product in good markets, with 5 handles trading in some cases.
The supply side is the harder half. Labor costs climbed 30% to 35% between 2021 and early 2023, and because buildings sat around 80% full, almost none of it was passed through to rents. Occupancy has healed, margins have not fully caught up, and the unlevered yield on cost math still comes up short in many markets. Arick lays out what has to change before a sustained construction cycle starts.
Then the opportunity set. The 80 plus population grows roughly 35% by 2030 and 65% to 70% by 2035, which means the industry needs to deliver about twice as many units as it has ever built, every year, for the next 20 years. Arick makes the case that expanding existing communities is the fastest pressure relief valve available, since roughly two thirds of the stock is 20 to 25 years old and much of it sits on land bought before land got expensive. He also covers third party management, regional density in portfolio construction, and where AI actually helps an operator.
In this episode:
00:00 Senior Housing Market Outlook 2026
01:46 Meet Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP
02:14 Record Absorption and Capital Rotating In
03:45 Why Passive Capital Needs an Operating Partner
04:24 New Supply at Great Financial Crisis Lows
06:33 Labor Costs Up 30% to 35% and the Margin Gap
07:57 Occupancy: 93% Median, 95% in 30 Plus Metros
08:42 Active Adult, IL, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing
10:45 Cap Rates: 6 Handles, and 5s for the Best Product
12:17 Transaction Volume at All-Time Highs and the NCREIF Index
13:46 Owner or Operator: The Third Party Management Question
15:42 Twice as Many Units, Every Year, for 20 Years
17:56 The Expansion Play: Building on Land You Already Own
20:02 AI, Data, and Regional Density for Operators
22:13 Where to Find NIC MAP Research
23:32 Final Takeaway
Connect with Arick Morton:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/arickmorton/
NIC MAP Website: https://www.nicmap.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
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