Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle

23 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-society-of-the [This is one of the finalists in th...

Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism

20 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/criticism-of-criticism-of-criticism I. The voters wanted Anti-Politics Machine to be a Book Review Contest Fina...

Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind

18 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-righteous-mind [This is one of the finalists in th...

Impact Markets: The Annoying Details

17 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-markets-the-annoying-details I said last year that I'd like to try running this year's ACX Grants throug...

Book Review: The Man From The Future

14 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-man-from-the-future John von Neumann invented the digital computer. The fields of game theory a...

Mantic Monday 7/11/22

13 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

New star forecasting team -- Musk vs. Twitter -- Donald Trump wriggling his way out of things https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-7112...

Your Book Review: The Outlier

10 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-outlier [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it...

Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike

08 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-bb9         Thanks to the 750 of you who commented on th...

Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nobody-knows-how-well-homework-works Yesterday I wrote about bottlenecks to learning. I wanted to discuss the e...

Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/study-ritalin-works-but-school-isnt Recent study, Pelham et al: The Effect Of Stimulant Medication On The Learn...

Your Book Review: The Internationalists

04 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #8 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-internationalists         [This ...

Links For June

03 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-june-1e7         [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average,...

Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko

02 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-san [Original post here] 1: Nifty775 writes: This doesn't address allegations ...

What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?

02 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike In my review of San Fransicko, I mentioned that it was hard to separate the...

Model City Monday 6/27/22

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

ZEDE update, Afropolitan, and we're going to Disney World! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722 Goodbye, ZEDE Law The story ...

Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy

29 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-public-choice-theory Finalist #7 In The Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in t...

Book Review: San Fransicko

28 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko Last month I discussed the platforms of twenty-six candidates for California governor....

Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy

18 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not b...

Peer Review: Nightmares

16 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/peer-review-nightmares I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, Lorien ...

Mantic Monday 6/13/22

14 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-61422 Mantic Monday 6/13/22 It's been a while since we've done one of these, hopefully no major...

Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything

12 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-dawn-of-everything         [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 bo...

Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling

11 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling I. Previously: I predicted that DALL-E's many flaws would be fixed quickly...

Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"

10 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-there-are-two-x-wing-parties One of my least favorite political tropes is the claim that "America has t...

Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?

09 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/which-party-has-gotten-more-extreme Matt Yglesias has written a couple of posts (1, 2) on the subject of thi...

My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs

08 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-bet-ai-size-solves-flubs?s=r On A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows, I described how DA...

Your Book Review: The Castrato

06 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-castrato [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - i...

Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture

01 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/birth-order-effects-nature-vs-nurture Introduction Thanks to everyone who waited two years for me to get around...

A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows

31 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-asking-robots-to-design I love stained glass. Not so much your usual suburban house stained glass wi...

Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine

28 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-anti-politics [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by m...

In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement

26 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/in-partial-grudging-defense-of-the 1: The New York Times has an article out on the Hearing Voices Movement - ie...

California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z

25 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/california-gubernatorial-candidates California is the home of Alphabet Inc, so it's symbolically appropriate th...

Willpower, Human and Machine

24 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/willpower-human-and-machine Two paragraphs from the mesa-optimizers post, which I quoted again in the adaptatio...

Your Book Review: Making Nature

22 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-making-nature [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - ...

Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety

19 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety 1: What is silexan? There are dozens of natural supplements that purport to ...

Link: Troof On Nootropics

18 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/link-troof-on-nootropics Should have signal-boosted this earlier, forgot, sorry. The author of the blog Troof so...

Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws

18 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-dynomight-on-sexy-in-laws I. From the Dynomight blog: You, Your Parents, And The Hotness Of Who You Marr...

Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain

14 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-consciousness-and Finalist #1 of the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the ...

Book Review: The Gervais Principle

11 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-gervais-principle I. The Gervais Principle, by postrationalist heresiarch Venkatesh Rao, claims...

Mantic Monday 5/9/22

10 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-5922 The future of abortion, plus a valiant attempt at market manipulation Warcasting Changes in U...

Berkeley Meetup This Saturday

06 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/berkeley-meetup-this-saturday-26e Why: Because we're having spring meetups in 70 cities, and Berkeley is one ...

Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's?

06 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-people-prefer-my-old-blogs This keeps coming up. When I was first considering moving to Substack, I aske...

Every Bay Area House Party

04 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/every-bay-area-house-party You walk in. The wall decorations vaguely suggest psychedelia. The music is pounding,...

Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping

29 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-xi I: Xi's Rise To Power II: Censorship III: Anti-Corruption And Centralization...

Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis

27 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-a-clinical-introduction [epistemic status: I didn't understand this book. Think of this review as d...

Initial Conditions

23 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/initial-conditions Consider people who go by their first and middle initials, eg John Q Smith introduces himse...

Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing

22 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoffman-on-vitamin-d-dosing [epistemic status: pretty uncertain about each individual fact, moderate con...

Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-sadly I. The Duality Of Man Kalimac: If you write more stuff like this, I thin...

Mantic Monday 4/18/22

19 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-41822 Nuclear risk, AI risk, Musk-acquiring-Twitter risk Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction ...

Irvine Meetup This Monday

16 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/irvine-meetup-this-monday I'll be in Irvine this week visiting family. I know the local meetup group already c...

Links For April

15 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-april-644 1: History of the belief that garlic and magnets are natural enemies. 2: Jacob Wood's Graph ...

Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

13 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/obscure-pregnancy-interventions-much This is intended as a sequel to my old Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting...

Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/men-will-literally-have-completely People are debating "therapy: good or bad?" again: There are dozens of kinds...

Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/deceptively-aligned-mesa-optimizers A Machine Alignment Monday post, 4/11/22 I. Our goal here is to popularize ...

Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/spring-meetups-in-seventy-cities   Lots of people only want to go to meetups a few times a year. And they all ...

Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-xi-jinping [Previous entries: Erdogan, Modi, Orban] The Third Revolution, by Elizabeth Econo...

Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-self 1: Rosemary (writes Parallel Republic) says: I think a preference for the...

Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds

05 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/yudkowsky-contra-christiano-on-ai Previously in series: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents, Yudkowsky Contra Cotra ...

The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions

02 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-low-hanging-fruit-argument-models A followup to Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring: Imagine scientists ve...

Idol Words

01 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/idol-words The woman was wearing sunglasses, a visor, a little too much lipstick, and a camera around her neck. ...

Who Gets Self-Determination?

30 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-gets-self-determination I. LSE: Fact-Checking The Kremlin's Version Of Russian History: The notion that Uk...

Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets

29 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/information-markets-decision-markets [thumbnail image credit: excellent nature photographer Eco Suparman, which...

Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep

25 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-justice A lot of comments on Justice Creep fell into three categories: First, p...

Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring

23 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoel-on-aristocratic-tutoring I. Erik Hoel has an interesting new essay, Why We Stopped Making Einsteins...

Mantic Monday 3/21/22

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-32122 Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post March 14: Will Kiev fa...

Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso

18 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-zulresso Thanks to everyone who commented on Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolo...

Justice Creep

17 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/justice-creep Freddie deBoer says we're a planet of cops. Maybe that's why justice is eating the world. Helping ...

Mantic Monday 3/14/22

15 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422 Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post February 28: Will Kiev fall to Ru...

Ukraine Thoughts And Links

12 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-thoughts-and-links?s=r Disclaimer: I am not an expert in international relations or military strategy, ...

Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute

11 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/progesterone-megadoses-might-be-a Earlier this week we talked about Zulresso, a new medication for post-partum ...

Advice For Unwoke Academic?

11 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/advice-for-unwoke-academic An academic recently asked me for advice. A lucky career development has now made him...

Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!

09 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone How excited should we be about the latest class of antidepressants? 1: What ...

What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?

04 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-are-we-arguing-about-when-we The backstory: Steven Pinker wrote a book about rationality. The book conclud...

Microaddictions

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/microaddictions Everyone always says you should "eat mindfully". I tried this once and it was weird. For example...

Ukraine Warcasting

01 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting Yeah, I know you're saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate the...

Austin Meetup Correction

26 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-correction?utm_source=url   Austin meetup is still this Sunday, 2/27, 12-3. But the location h...

Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_source=url Introduction I've been trying to review and summarize Elie...

Links For February

23 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-february?utm_source=url [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters...

Play Money And Reputation Systems

22 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems?utm_source=url For now, US-based prediction markets can't use real money with...

Austin Meetup Next Sunday

19 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-next-sunday?utm_source=url   I'll be in Austin on Sunday, 2/27, and the meetup group there has...

The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them

18 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-gods-only-have-power-because?utm_source=url [with apologies to Terry Pratchett and TVTropes] "Is it true," ...

Book Review: Sadly, Porn

18 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn I. Freshman English class says all books need a conflict. Man vs. Man, Man vs. Self, wha...

Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold

15 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold?r=fm577 Ukraine Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me: These run...

Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning

13 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-motivated I. Comments From People Who Actually Know What They're Talking About ...

ACX Grants ++: The Second Half

11 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-second-half This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn't fully fund myself we...

So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/so-you-want-to-run-a-microgrants I. Medical training is a wild ride. You do four years of undergrad in some bio...

Heuristics That Almost Always Work

09 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-always-work The Security Guard He works in a very boring building. It basically never ge...

Two Small Corrections And Updates

09 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/two-small-corrections-and-updates 1: I titled part of my post yesterday "RIP Polymarket", which was a mistake...

The Passage Of Polymarket

08 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket RIP Polymarket, Long Live Polymarket Polymarket got fined $1.4 million by the Commodit...

Book Review Contest Rules 2022

05 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022 Okay, we're officially doing this again. Write a review of a book. There's no o...

ACX Grants ++: The First Half

04 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-first-half   This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn't fully fund myself ...

Why Do I Suck?

03 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck I recently ran a subscriber-only AMA, and one of the most frequent questions was some version of "...

Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning

02 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/motivated-reasoning-as-mis-applied Here's something else I got from the first Yudkowsky-Ngo dialogue: Suppose y...

Predictions For 2022

01 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest - Read the contest description/rules here - Give feedback on the contest here - An...

Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems

28 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-health I'm experimenting with making this more structured this time, so: Sectio...

Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-that-poverty-and-infant-eegs A recent paper claims to have found an Impact Of A Poverty Reduction Inter...

Bounded Distrust

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust   I. Suppose you're a liberal who doesn't trust FOX News. One day you're at the airport, waiti...

Grading My 2021 Predictions

26 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions   At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I ...

Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++

22 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/resubmit-and-summarize-your-proposals https://forms.gle/xhVTebsZgSEQ7BpeA I promised you all that once I was do...

Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?

20 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-which-country-has-the   I. If you're like me, all you've heard about international health care sys...

Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents

19 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/practically-a-book-review-yudkowsky   I. The story thus far: AI safety, which started as the hobbyhorse of a f...