Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Episodes
Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping
29 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-xi I: Xi's Rise To Power II: Censorship III: Anti-Corruption And Centralization...
Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis
27 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-a-clinical-introduction [epistemic status: I didn't understand this book. Think of this review as d...
Initial Conditions
23 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/initial-conditions Consider people who go by their first and middle initials, eg John Q Smith introduces himse...
Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing
22 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoffman-on-vitamin-d-dosing [epistemic status: pretty uncertain about each individual fact, moderate con...
Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
20 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-sadly I. The Duality Of Man Kalimac: If you write more stuff like this, I thin...
Mantic Monday 4/18/22
19 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-41822 Nuclear risk, AI risk, Musk-acquiring-Twitter risk Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction ...
Irvine Meetup This Monday
16 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/irvine-meetup-this-monday I'll be in Irvine this week visiting family. I know the local meetup group already c...
Links For April
15 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-april-644 1: History of the belief that garlic and magnets are natural enemies. 2: Jacob Wood's Graph ...
Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
13 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/obscure-pregnancy-interventions-much This is intended as a sequel to my old Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting...
Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/men-will-literally-have-completely People are debating "therapy: good or bad?" again: There are dozens of kinds...
Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/deceptively-aligned-mesa-optimizers A Machine Alignment Monday post, 4/11/22 I. Our goal here is to popularize ...
Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/spring-meetups-in-seventy-cities Lots of people only want to go to meetups a few times a year. And they all ...
Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-xi-jinping [Previous entries: Erdogan, Modi, Orban] The Third Revolution, by Elizabeth Econo...
Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination
12 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-self 1: Rosemary (writes Parallel Republic) says: I think a preference for the...
Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
05 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/yudkowsky-contra-christiano-on-ai Previously in series: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents, Yudkowsky Contra Cotra ...
The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions
02 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-low-hanging-fruit-argument-models A followup to Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring: Imagine scientists ve...
Idol Words
01 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/idol-words The woman was wearing sunglasses, a visor, a little too much lipstick, and a camera around her neck. ...
Who Gets Self-Determination?
30 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-gets-self-determination I. LSE: Fact-Checking The Kremlin's Version Of Russian History: The notion that Uk...
Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
29 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/information-markets-decision-markets [thumbnail image credit: excellent nature photographer Eco Suparman, which...
Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep
25 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-justice A lot of comments on Justice Creep fell into three categories: First, p...
Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
23 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoel-on-aristocratic-tutoring I. Erik Hoel has an interesting new essay, Why We Stopped Making Einsteins...
Mantic Monday 3/21/22
22 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-32122 Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post March 14: Will Kiev fa...
Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso
18 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-zulresso Thanks to everyone who commented on Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolo...
Justice Creep
17 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/justice-creep Freddie deBoer says we're a planet of cops. Maybe that's why justice is eating the world. Helping ...
Mantic Monday 3/14/22
15 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422 Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post February 28: Will Kiev fall to Ru...
Ukraine Thoughts And Links
12 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-thoughts-and-links?s=r Disclaimer: I am not an expert in international relations or military strategy, ...
Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute
11 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/progesterone-megadoses-might-be-a Earlier this week we talked about Zulresso, a new medication for post-partum ...
Advice For Unwoke Academic?
11 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/advice-for-unwoke-academic An academic recently asked me for advice. A lucky career development has now made him...
Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!
09 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone How excited should we be about the latest class of antidepressants? 1: What ...
What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
04 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-are-we-arguing-about-when-we The backstory: Steven Pinker wrote a book about rationality. The book conclud...
Microaddictions
03 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/microaddictions Everyone always says you should "eat mindfully". I tried this once and it was weird. For example...
Ukraine Warcasting
01 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting Yeah, I know you're saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate the...
Austin Meetup Correction
26 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-correction?utm_source=url Austin meetup is still this Sunday, 2/27, 12-3. But the location h...
Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
24 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_source=url Introduction I've been trying to review and summarize Elie...
Links For February
23 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-february?utm_source=url [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters...
Play Money And Reputation Systems
22 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems?utm_source=url For now, US-based prediction markets can't use real money with...
Austin Meetup Next Sunday
19 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-next-sunday?utm_source=url I'll be in Austin on Sunday, 2/27, and the meetup group there has...
The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them
18 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-gods-only-have-power-because?utm_source=url [with apologies to Terry Pratchett and TVTropes] "Is it true," ...
Book Review: Sadly, Porn
18 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn I. Freshman English class says all books need a conflict. Man vs. Man, Man vs. Self, wha...
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
15 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold?r=fm577 Ukraine Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me: These run...
Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning
13 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-motivated I. Comments From People Who Actually Know What They're Talking About ...
ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
11 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-second-half This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn't fully fund myself we...
So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
10 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/so-you-want-to-run-a-microgrants I. Medical training is a wild ride. You do four years of undergrad in some bio...
Heuristics That Almost Always Work
09 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-always-work The Security Guard He works in a very boring building. It basically never ge...
Two Small Corrections And Updates
09 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/two-small-corrections-and-updates 1: I titled part of my post yesterday "RIP Polymarket", which was a mistake...
The Passage Of Polymarket
08 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket RIP Polymarket, Long Live Polymarket Polymarket got fined $1.4 million by the Commodit...
Book Review Contest Rules 2022
05 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022 Okay, we're officially doing this again. Write a review of a book. There's no o...
ACX Grants ++: The First Half
04 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-first-half This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn't fully fund myself ...
Why Do I Suck?
03 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck I recently ran a subscriber-only AMA, and one of the most frequent questions was some version of "...
Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning
02 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/motivated-reasoning-as-mis-applied Here's something else I got from the first Yudkowsky-Ngo dialogue: Suppose y...
Predictions For 2022
01 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest - Read the contest description/rules here - Give feedback on the contest here - An...
Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems
28 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-health I'm experimenting with making this more structured this time, so: Sectio...
Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
27 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-that-poverty-and-infant-eegs A recent paper claims to have found an Impact Of A Poverty Reduction Inter...
Bounded Distrust
27 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust I. Suppose you're a liberal who doesn't trust FOX News. One day you're at the airport, waiti...
Grading My 2021 Predictions
26 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I ...
Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++
22 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/resubmit-and-summarize-your-proposals https://forms.gle/xhVTebsZgSEQ7BpeA I promised you all that once I was do...
Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?
20 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-which-country-has-the I. If you're like me, all you've heard about international health care sys...
Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
19 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/practically-a-book-review-yudkowsky I. The story thus far: AI safety, which started as the hobbyhorse of a f...
There's A Time For Everyone
13 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/theres-a-time-for-everyone Last week I got married. I met her two years ago, at one of (our mutual friend) Aella...
Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up"
07 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-dont Lots of people thought I was being unfair to the movie. G. Retriever write...
Movie Review: Don't Look Up
05 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/movie-review-dont-look-up I. Don't Look Up is primarily a movie about existential risk, and many great people ha...
Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894
04 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lewis-carroll-invented-retroactive Retroactive public goods funding is one of those ideas that's so great peopl...
Links For December
31 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-december [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up ...
ACX Grants Results
29 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or ...
Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
28 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-dogs-in-wizard-hats I found this YouTube explainer about prediction markets on the subreddit. ...
Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality
24 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-diseasonality The main highlight was an email I got from a reader who prefer...
Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
23 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/addendum-to-no-evidence-post The day after I wrote The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Commu...
Addendum To Luvox Post
23 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/addendum-to-luvox-post In my post yesterday, I quoted a Vox article describing work by Dr. Ed Mills and other...
The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul
23 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-fda-has-punted-decisions-about I. Here's my pitch for fluvoxamine (Luvox) for COVID. In the midst of all...
Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-let-me-google-that Let Me Google That For You New from Google this month: Creating A Prediction M...
The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
18 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-...
Ancient Plagues
15 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ancient-plagues During our recent discussion of climate change, someone linked me to this New York Magazine p...
Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
12 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-part-3-can-unimproved [Lars Doucet won this year's Book Review Contest with his review of...
Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants?
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-part-2-can-landlords [Lars Doucet won this year's Book Review Contest with his review of ...
Does Georgism Work? Is Land Really A Big Deal?
09 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-is-land-really [Lars Doucet won this year's Book Review Contest with his review of Henry ...
Diseasonality
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/diseasonality [epistemic status: conjecture and speculation in something that isn't really my field] I. It's sti...
Model City Monday 12/6/21
07 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-12621 Tegucigalpa, Honduras The socialist opposition has won Honduras' election and pledges t...
Book Review: Lifespan
03 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-lifespan [epistemic status: non-expert review of a book on a highly technical subject, sorry. If ...
MM: Omicron Variant
30 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mm-omicron-variant Noah Smith has a good summary of the Omicron evidence here, including a lot of quotes from ex...
[Classic] The Virtue of Silence
28 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/14/the-virtue-of-silence/ Leah Libresco writes a couple of essays (1, 2) on an ethical dilemma reported in the ...
Links For November
26 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-november [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up ...
Pascalian Medicine
25 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/pascalian-medicine I. When I reviewed Vitamin D, I said I was about 75% sure it didn't work against COVID. When ...
Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
24 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/higlights-from-the-comments-on-ivermectin Thanks to everyone who commented on my recent post Ivermectin: Muc...
Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid
24 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the Andrew writes: One word I don't see mentioned anywhere is "manufacturin...
When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?
23 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve-paxlovid https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve-paxlovid...
Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
19 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-great Thanks to everyone who commented on last week's post Secrets Of The Gr...
Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
18 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted I know I'm two months late here. Everyone's already made up their mind and...
Mantic Monday 11/15
16 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-1115 Reciprocal Scoring, Part II I talked about this last week as a potential solution to the p...
Apply For An ACX Grant
12 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/apply-for-an-acx-grant What is ACX Grants? I want to give grants to good research and good projects with a mi...
Highlights From The Comments On Orban
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-orban Lyman Stone on Twitter: Twitter avatar for @lymanstonekyLyman Stone 石來...
Secrets Of The Great Families
10 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families I. Let's talk impressive families. Aldous Huxley was an author most famous for...
Model City Monday 11/8/21
09 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-11821 Telosa, USA Bloomberg: The Diapers.com Guy Wants To Build A Utopian Megalopolis Marc Lo...
Dictator Book Club: Orban
05 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-orban (previously: Erdogan, Modi) I. Some are born great. Some achieve greatness. And some...
Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/non-cognitive-skills-for-educational Suppose you want to study the genetics of intelligence. You probably want ...
Mantic Monday 11/1/21
02 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-11121 Keynesian Beauty Contests I have no source for this, someone told me about it at a meetup. ...
Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem
29 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/jhanas-and-the-dark-room-problem The Dark Room Problem in neuroscience goes something like this: suppose the...
Epistemic Minor Leagues
26 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/epistemic-minor-leagues [I'm traveling this week - here is an older essay I never previously got around to post...
Chilling Effects
20 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/chilling-effects [Epistemic status: Extremely confused! Low confidence in all of this] I. On the recent global w...
Links For October
15 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-october [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spot...
Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change
14 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-kids Ramparen writes: No one really does it because of climate change imo, ...