Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Episodes
2023 Prediction Contest
20 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has ...
Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs
14 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/perhaps-it-is-a-bad-thing-that-the I. The Game Is Afoot Last month I wrote about Redwood Research's fanf...
Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
12 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-bobos Table of contents: 1. Comments Doubting The Book's Thesis 2. Comments Fro...
Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
11 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-im-less-than-infinitely-hostile Go anywhere in Silicon Valley these days and start saying the word "cryp - ...
Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits
11 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/know-your-gaba-a-receptor-subunits Many psychiatric drugs and supplements affect GABA, the brain's main inhibit...
Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise
02 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-first-sixth-of-bobos I. David Brooks' Bobos In Paradise is an uneven book. The first sixth is a ...
Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide
01 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-semaglutide Table of contents: 1. Top Comments 2. More Tips On Getting Cheap Se...
Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?
30 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
We're showcasing a hot new totally bopping, popping musical track called "bromancer era? bromancer era?? bromancer era???" His subtle sublime thoughts...
Semaglutidonomics
25 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
140 million obese Americans x $15,000/year for obesity drugs = . . . uh oh, that can't be right. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomi...
"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine
23 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
I wrote an article on whether wine is fake. It's not here, it's at asteriskmag.com, the new rationalist / effective altruist magazine. Congratulations...
Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
22 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Plus FTX charges, scandal markets - and oh yeah, wasn't there some kind of midterm recently? https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twit...
The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash
18 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-psychopharmacology-of-the-ftx Must not blog about FTX . . . must not blog about . . . ah, $#@% it ...
Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States
13 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-resident-contrarian-on-unfalsifiable I. Contra Resident Contrarian . . . Resident Contrarian writes On U...
Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?
10 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/can-people-be-honestly-wrong-about A tangent of the jhana discussion: I asserted that people can't be wrong abo...
Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves
09 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-brain [original post here] On What Kind Of Thing Brain Waves Are: Loweren wri...
Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot
06 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-my [Original post here] I know I don't usually publish on Saturdays, but I want...
ACX Grants: Project Updates
06 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-project-updates Thanks to everyone who got ACX Grants (see original grants...
My California Ballot 2022
06 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-california-ballot-2022 Previously: 2018, 2020 General Philosophy Of Voting This is California, so the ...
Moderation Is Different From Censorship
03 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/moderation-is-different-from-censorship This is a point I keep seeing people miss in the debate about social me...
Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas
02 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-jhanas "I think it's the first time half the commenters accused the other half ...
Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum
29 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-malleus-maleficarum I. To The Republic, For Witches Stand Did you know you can just buy the Malleus...
Nick Cammarata On Jhana
29 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana Buddhists say that if you meditate enough, you can learn to enter a state of extreme bli...
Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling
27 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-supplement [Original post here: How Trustworthy Are Supplements?] 1: AvalancheG...
From The Mailbag
26 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Answers to the questions I get most often at meetup Q&As https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/from-the-mailbag DEAR SCOTT: When are you going to pub...
Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain
23 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-rhythms-of-the-brain Brain waves have always felt like a mystery. You learn some psychology, some n...
Another Bay Area House Party
21 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/another-bay-area-house-party [Previously: Every Bay Area House Party] Blaise Pascal said all human evil comes f...
Mantic Monday 10/17/22
20 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
What do Sam Altman, Matt Bruenig, and the Sacramento Kings have in common? -- Are the polls wrong? -- CFTC vs. Everybody https://astralcodexten.substa...
Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
16 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-3b1 Original post: Why Is The Central Valley So Bad? 1: Several Valley r...
Links For October 2022
13 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-october-397 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up ...
Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
11 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-columbus [Original post: A Columbian Exchange] 1: The most popular comments wer...
A Columbian Exchange
10 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-columbian-exchange Adraste: Happy Indigenous People's Day! Beroe: Happy Columbus Day! Adraste: …okay, surely...
[Classic] You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today
09 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Due to an oversight by the ancient Greeks, there is no Muse of blogging. Denied the ability to begin with a proper Invocation To The Muse, I will com...
LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend
08 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Also Austin, Seattle, Tokyo, Rome, Mumbai, etc. We have two Southern California meetups this weekend: Los Angeles at 6:30 PM Saturday October 8 at...
How Trustworthy Are Supplements?
06 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-trustworthy-are-supplements [EDIT: LabDoor responds here] [Epistemic status: not totally sure of any of thi...
CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
05 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 10/3/22 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/chai-assistance-games-and-fully-updated I. This Machine Alig...
Universe-Hopping Through Substack
02 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/universe-hopping-through-substack RandomTweet is a service that will show you exactly that - a randomly sele...
Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
01 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-unpredictable [Original post: Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness] 1: O...
From Nostradamus To Fukuyama
29 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/from-nostradamus-to-fukuyama I. Nostradamus was a 16th century French physician who claimed to be able to see t...
Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
23 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-billionaire [original post: Billionaires, Surplus, and Replaceability] 1: Lar...
Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
22 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-is-the-central-valley-so-bad I. Here's a topographic map of California (source): You might notice it has a ...
Janus' GPT Wrangling
20 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/janus-gpt-wrangling Janus (pseudonym by request) works at AI alignment startup Conjecture. Their hobby, which...
Bay Area Meetups This Weekend (September 17-18 2022)
17 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bay-area-meetups-this-weekend We have three Bay Area meetups this weekend: Berkeley, at 1 PM on Sunday 9/18...
Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness
15 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/unpredictable-reward-predictable [Epistemic status: very conjectural. I am not a neuroscientist and they should...
I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months
13 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet I. DALL-E2 is bad at "compositionality", ie combining different pieces acc...
Links For September 2022
08 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-september-2022 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end ...
Book Review Contest 2022 Winners
04 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-2022-winners Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review c...
The Prophet And Caesar's Wife
04 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-prophet-and-caesars-wife I. The Prophet in his wanderings came to Cragmacnois, and found the Bishop living ...
Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability
31 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/billionaires-surplus-and-replaceability The typical neoliberal defense of self-made billionaires goes: entrepre...
Your Book Review: Kora In Hell
28 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-kora-in-hell [This is one of the finalists in the 2022...
Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places
27 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/meetups-everywhere-2022-times-and Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Vol...
Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF
27 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-909 (Original post here) 1: Petey writes: When I think of happiness 0.01, ...
Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions
24 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/effective-altruism-as-a-tower-of I have an essay that my friends won't let me post because it's too spicy. It w...
Book Review: What We Owe The Future
23 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-what-we-owe-the-future I. An academic once asked me if I was writing a book. I said no, I was able ...
Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance
22 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-1587-a-year-of-no Finalist #15 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the...
Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
19 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-subcultures 1: Maximum Limelihood Estimator writes: I firmly believe that cycl...
Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference
18 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/skills-plateau-because-of-decay-and Followup to: Why Do Test Scores Plateau; Ritalin Works But School Isn't Wor...
Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers
18 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Please volunteer to host a meetup in your city! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/meetups-everywhere-2022-call-for There are ACX-affiliated meetu...
Mantic Monday 8/15/22
16 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-81522 RIP PredictIt -- Hedgehog Markets -- Salem/CSPI Fellowship The Passing Of PredictIt In ...
Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune
14 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-god-emperor-of-dune Finalist #14 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in t...
Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?
12 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/will-nonbelievers-really-believe There's a popular saying among religious apologists: Once people stop believi...
A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures
12 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures David Chapman's Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths In Subculture Evolution is rightf...
Why Not Slow AI Progress?
09 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 8/8/22 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-not-slow-ai-progress The Broader Fossil Fuel Community Imagine if oil compa...
Your Book Review: Exhaustion
07 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #13 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-exhaustion [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 b...
Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition
05 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/absurdity-bias-neom-edition Alexandros M expresses concern about my post on Neom. My post mostly just makes fun...
Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries
05 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/slightly-against-underpopulation So I hear there's an underpopulation crisis now. I think the strong version of...
Model City Monday 8/1/22
03 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-8122 Neom Neom Neom Suppose you are an oil-rich country. You drill the oil and get very rich,...
Your Book Review: Viral
30 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-viral Finalist #12 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists i...
Links For July '22
30 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-july-095 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spo...
Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
29 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-criticism 1: I said in the original post that I wrote this because I knew someo...
Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations
27 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/forer-statements-as-updates-and-affirmations The Forer Effect is a trick used by astrologers, psychics, and soc...
ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI
27 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/elk-and-the-problem-of-truthful-ai Machine Alignment Monday 7/25/22 I. There Is No Shining Mirror I met a re...
Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle
23 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-society-of-the [This is one of the finalists in th...
Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
20 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/criticism-of-criticism-of-criticism I. The voters wanted Anti-Politics Machine to be a Book Review Contest Fina...
Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind
18 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-righteous-mind [This is one of the finalists in th...
Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
17 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-markets-the-annoying-details I said last year that I'd like to try running this year's ACX Grants throug...
Book Review: The Man From The Future
14 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-man-from-the-future John von Neumann invented the digital computer. The fields of game theory a...
Mantic Monday 7/11/22
13 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
New star forecasting team -- Musk vs. Twitter -- Donald Trump wriggling his way out of things https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-7112...
Your Book Review: The Outlier
10 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-outlier [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it...
Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike
08 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-bb9 Thanks to the 750 of you who commented on th...
Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works
07 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nobody-knows-how-well-homework-works Yesterday I wrote about bottlenecks to learning. I wanted to discuss the e...
Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To
07 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/study-ritalin-works-but-school-isnt Recent study, Pelham et al: The Effect Of Stimulant Medication On The Learn...
Your Book Review: The Internationalists
04 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #8 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-internationalists [This ...
Links For June
03 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-june-1e7 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average,...
Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
02 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-san [Original post here] 1: Nifty775 writes: This doesn't address allegations ...
What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?
02 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike In my review of San Fransicko, I mentioned that it was hard to separate the...
Model City Monday 6/27/22
01 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
ZEDE update, Afropolitan, and we're going to Disney World! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722 Goodbye, ZEDE Law The story ...
Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
29 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-public-choice-theory Finalist #7 In The Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in t...
Book Review: San Fransicko
28 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko Last month I discussed the platforms of twenty-six candidates for California governor....
Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy
18 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not b...
Peer Review: Nightmares
16 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/peer-review-nightmares I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, Lorien ...
Mantic Monday 6/13/22
14 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-61422 Mantic Monday 6/13/22 It's been a while since we've done one of these, hopefully no major...
Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything
12 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-dawn-of-everything [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 bo...
Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling
11 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling I. Previously: I predicted that DALL-E's many flaws would be fixed quickly...
Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
10 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-there-are-two-x-wing-parties One of my least favorite political tropes is the claim that "America has t...
Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
09 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/which-party-has-gotten-more-extreme Matt Yglesias has written a couple of posts (1, 2) on the subject of thi...
My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs
08 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-bet-ai-size-solves-flubs?s=r On A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows, I described how DA...
Your Book Review: The Castrato
06 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-castrato [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - i...
Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture
01 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/birth-order-effects-nature-vs-nurture Introduction Thanks to everyone who waited two years for me to get around...
A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows
31 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-asking-robots-to-design I love stained glass. Not so much your usual suburban house stained glass wi...
Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine
28 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-anti-politics [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by m...