Astral Codex Ten Podcast

2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-subscription-drive-free-unlocked Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50...

Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/conspiracies-of-cognition-conspiracies I. Some conspiracy theories center on finding anomalies in a narrative. ...

Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying

17 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-061 Originally: The Media Very Rarely Lies and Sorry, I Still Think I Am Ri...

Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to the 3295 of you who participated in Stage 1 of the 2023 Prediction Contest ("Blind Mode"). This is now closed. You can keep submitting Bli...

Even More Bay Area House Party

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/even-more-bay-area-house-party [Previously: Every Bay Area House Party, Another Bay Area House Party] People ta...

How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Future Matrioshka brains will be pro-immigration Buddhist gun nuts. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-do-ais-political-opinions-change I. Tec...

Take The 2022 ACX Survey!

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Each year, I post a reader survey. This helps me learn who's reading this blog. But it also helps me try to replicate a bunch of psych findings, and...

Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Answers to your proposed counterexamples https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/sorry-i-still-think-i-am-right-about         Last w...

Links For December 2022

02 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...

Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys

02 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/selection-bias-is-a-fact-of-life Sometimes people do amateur research through online surveys. Then they find in...

[Classic] Abraham Lincoln, Ape-Man

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/02/12/abraham-lincoln-ape-man/ Posted on February 12, 2013 Away with LiveJournal, and in with a new, sleeker-looking b...

Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/fact-check-do-all-healthy-people I saw this on Twitter the other day… …and realized I had the data to...

The Media Very Rarely Lies

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

"With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies Rela...

Prediction Market FAQ

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq This is a FAQ about prediction markets. I am a big proponent of them but have tried my ...

2023 Prediction Contest

20 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has ...

Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/perhaps-it-is-a-bad-thing-that-the I. The Game Is Afoot   Last month I wrote about Redwood Research's fanf...

Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-bobos Table of contents: 1. Comments Doubting The Book's Thesis 2. Comments Fro...

Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency

11 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-im-less-than-infinitely-hostile Go anywhere in Silicon Valley these days and start saying the word "cryp - ...

Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits

11 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/know-your-gaba-a-receptor-subunits Many psychiatric drugs and supplements affect GABA, the brain's main inhibit...

Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-first-sixth-of-bobos I. David Brooks' Bobos In Paradise is an uneven book. The first sixth is a ...

Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-semaglutide Table of contents: 1. Top Comments 2. More Tips On Getting Cheap Se...

Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We're showcasing a hot new totally bopping, popping musical track called "bromancer era? bromancer era?? bromancer era???" His subtle sublime thoughts...

Semaglutidonomics

25 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

140 million obese Americans x $15,000/year for obesity drugs = . . . uh oh, that can't be right. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomi...

"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

I wrote an article on whether wine is fake. It's not here, it's at asteriskmag.com, the new rationalist / effective altruist magazine. Congratulations...

Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition

22 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Plus FTX charges, scandal markets - and oh yeah, wasn't there some kind of midterm recently? https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twit...

The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-psychopharmacology-of-the-ftx Must not blog about FTX . . . must not blog about . . . ah, $#@% it    ...

Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States

13 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-resident-contrarian-on-unfalsifiable I. Contra Resident Contrarian . . . Resident Contrarian writes On U...

Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/can-people-be-honestly-wrong-about A tangent of the jhana discussion: I asserted that people can't be wrong abo...

Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves

09 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-brain [original post here] On What Kind Of Thing Brain Waves Are: Loweren wri...

Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot

06 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-my [Original post here] I know I don't usually publish on Saturdays, but I want...

ACX Grants: Project Updates

06 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-project-updates         Thanks to everyone who got ACX Grants (see original grants...

My California Ballot 2022

06 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-california-ballot-2022 Previously: 2018, 2020 General Philosophy Of Voting   This is California, so the ...

Moderation Is Different From Censorship

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/moderation-is-different-from-censorship This is a point I keep seeing people miss in the debate about social me...

Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas

02 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-jhanas "I think it's the first time half the commenters accused the other half ...

Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum

29 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-malleus-maleficarum I. To The Republic, For Witches Stand Did you know you can just buy the Malleus...

Nick Cammarata On Jhana

29 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana Buddhists say that if you meditate enough, you can learn to enter a state of extreme bli...

Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-supplement [Original post here: How Trustworthy Are Supplements?] 1: AvalancheG...

From The Mailbag

26 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Answers to the questions I get most often at meetup Q&As https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/from-the-mailbag DEAR SCOTT: When are you going to pub...

Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain

23 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-rhythms-of-the-brain Brain waves have always felt like a mystery. You learn some psychology, some n...

Another Bay Area House Party

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/another-bay-area-house-party [Previously: Every Bay Area House Party] Blaise Pascal said all human evil comes f...

Mantic Monday 10/17/22

20 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

What do Sam Altman, Matt Bruenig, and the Sacramento Kings have in common? -- Are the polls wrong? -- CFTC vs. Everybody https://astralcodexten.substa...

Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley

16 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-3b1 Original post: Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?   1: Several Valley r...

Links For October 2022

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-october-397 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up ...

Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day

11 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-columbus [Original post: A Columbian Exchange] 1: The most popular comments wer...

A Columbian Exchange

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-columbian-exchange Adraste: Happy Indigenous People's Day! Beroe: Happy Columbus Day! Adraste: …okay, surely...

[Classic] You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today

09 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Due to an oversight by the ancient Greeks, there is no Muse of blogging. Denied the ability to begin with a proper Invocation To The Muse, I will com...

LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend

08 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Also Austin, Seattle, Tokyo, Rome, Mumbai, etc. We have two Southern California meetups this weekend: Los Angeles at 6:30 PM Saturday October 8 at...

How Trustworthy Are Supplements?

06 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-trustworthy-are-supplements [EDIT: LabDoor responds here] [Epistemic status: not totally sure of any of thi...

CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference

05 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 10/3/22 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/chai-assistance-games-and-fully-updated       I. This Machine Alig...

Universe-Hopping Through Substack

02 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/universe-hopping-through-substack RandomTweet is a service that will show you exactly that - a randomly sele...

Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward

01 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-unpredictable [Original post: Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness] 1: O...

From Nostradamus To Fukuyama

29 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/from-nostradamus-to-fukuyama I. Nostradamus was a 16th century French physician who claimed to be able to see t...

Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability

23 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-billionaire [original post: Billionaires, Surplus, and Replaceability] 1: Lar...

Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?

22 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-is-the-central-valley-so-bad I. Here's a topographic map of California (source): You might notice it has a ...

Janus' GPT Wrangling

20 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/janus-gpt-wrangling Janus (pseudonym by request) works at AI alignment startup Conjecture. Their hobby, which...

Bay Area Meetups This Weekend (September 17-18 2022)

17 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bay-area-meetups-this-weekend We have three Bay Area meetups this weekend: Berkeley, at 1 PM on Sunday 9/18...

Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness

15 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/unpredictable-reward-predictable [Epistemic status: very conjectural. I am not a neuroscientist and they should...

I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months

13 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet I. DALL-E2 is bad at "compositionality", ie combining different pieces acc...

Links For September 2022

08 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-september-2022 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end ...

Book Review Contest 2022 Winners

04 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-2022-winners       Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review c...

The Prophet And Caesar's Wife

04 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-prophet-and-caesars-wife I. The Prophet in his wanderings came to Cragmacnois, and found the Bishop living ...

Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability

31 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/billionaires-surplus-and-replaceability The typical neoliberal defense of self-made billionaires goes: entrepre...

Your Book Review: Kora In Hell

28 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-kora-in-hell [This is one of the finalists in the 2022...

Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places

27 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/meetups-everywhere-2022-times-and Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Vol...

Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF

27 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-909 (Original post here) 1: Petey writes: When I think of happiness 0.01, ...

Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions

24 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/effective-altruism-as-a-tower-of I have an essay that my friends won't let me post because it's too spicy. It w...

Book Review: What We Owe The Future

23 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-what-we-owe-the-future I. An academic once asked me if I was writing a book. I said no, I was able ...

Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance

22 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-1587-a-year-of-no Finalist #15 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the...

Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures

19 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-subcultures 1: Maximum Limelihood Estimator writes: I firmly believe that cycl...

Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference

18 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/skills-plateau-because-of-decay-and Followup to: Why Do Test Scores Plateau; Ritalin Works But School Isn't Wor...

Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers

18 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Please volunteer to host a meetup in your city! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/meetups-everywhere-2022-call-for There are ACX-affiliated meetu...

Mantic Monday 8/15/22

16 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-81522 RIP PredictIt -- Hedgehog Markets -- Salem/CSPI Fellowship The Passing Of PredictIt   In ...

Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune

14 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-god-emperor-of-dune Finalist #14 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in t...

Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?

12 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/will-nonbelievers-really-believe There's a popular saying among religious apologists: Once people stop believi...

A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures

12 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures David Chapman's Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths In Subculture Evolution is rightf...

Why Not Slow AI Progress?

09 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 8/8/22 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-not-slow-ai-progress The Broader Fossil Fuel Community Imagine if oil compa...

Your Book Review: Exhaustion

07 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #13 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-exhaustion [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 b...

Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition

05 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/absurdity-bias-neom-edition Alexandros M expresses concern about my post on Neom. My post mostly just makes fun...

Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries

05 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/slightly-against-underpopulation So I hear there's an underpopulation crisis now. I think the strong version of...

Model City Monday 8/1/22

03 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-8122 Neom Neom Neom Suppose you are an oil-rich country. You drill the oil and get very rich,...

Your Book Review: Viral

30 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-viral Finalist #12 in the Book Review Contest       [This is one of the finalists i...

Links For July '22

30 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-july-095 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spo...

Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism

29 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-criticism 1: I said in the original post that I wrote this because I knew someo...

Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations

27 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/forer-statements-as-updates-and-affirmations The Forer Effect is a trick used by astrologers, psychics, and soc...

ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI

27 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/elk-and-the-problem-of-truthful-ai Machine Alignment Monday 7/25/22 I. There Is No Shining Mirror I met a re...

Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle

23 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-society-of-the [This is one of the finalists in th...

Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism

20 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/criticism-of-criticism-of-criticism I. The voters wanted Anti-Politics Machine to be a Book Review Contest Fina...

Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind

18 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-righteous-mind [This is one of the finalists in th...

Impact Markets: The Annoying Details

17 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-markets-the-annoying-details I said last year that I'd like to try running this year's ACX Grants throug...

Book Review: The Man From The Future

14 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-man-from-the-future John von Neumann invented the digital computer. The fields of game theory a...

Mantic Monday 7/11/22

13 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

New star forecasting team -- Musk vs. Twitter -- Donald Trump wriggling his way out of things https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-7112...

Your Book Review: The Outlier

10 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-outlier [This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It's not by me - it...

Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike

08 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-bb9         Thanks to the 750 of you who commented on th...

Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nobody-knows-how-well-homework-works Yesterday I wrote about bottlenecks to learning. I wanted to discuss the e...

Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/study-ritalin-works-but-school-isnt Recent study, Pelham et al: The Effect Of Stimulant Medication On The Learn...

Your Book Review: The Internationalists

04 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #8 in the Book Review Contest https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-internationalists         [This ...

Links For June

03 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-june-1e7         [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average,...

Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko

02 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-san [Original post here] 1: Nifty775 writes: This doesn't address allegations ...

What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?

02 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike In my review of San Fransicko, I mentioned that it was hard to separate the...

Model City Monday 6/27/22

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

ZEDE update, Afropolitan, and we're going to Disney World! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722 Goodbye, ZEDE Law The story ...