Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Your Book Review: Safe Enough?

06 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Is There An Illusion Of Moral Decline?

06 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Epistemic status: very uncertain about Part II; more convinced about Part III] I. This is the big question in the paper du jour, The Illusion Of Mora...

Sure, Whatever, Let's Try Another Contra Caplan On Mental Illness

02 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

I. Bryan Caplan thinks he's debating me about mental illness. He's not. Sometimes he posts some thoughts he has been having about mental illness, with...

Every Flashing Element On Your Site Alienates And Enrages Users

01 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Warning: This post might give vulnerable people new sensory sensitivities Everyone hates flashing banner ads, but maybe they're a necessary evil. C...

"Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine

01 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

(Includes full article narration.) I have an article summarizing attempts to forecast AI progress, including a five year check-in on the predictions i...

Your Book Review: Public Citizens

30 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Davidson On Takeoff Speeds

25 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 6/19/23 The face of Mt. Everest is gradual and continuous; for each point on the mountain, the points 1 mm away aren't too mu...

Your Book Review: Njal's Saga

23 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #5 in the Book Review Contest   [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will re...

Your Incentives Are Not The Same As Media Companies'

18 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Unfortunately I hate many of you. Only the ones with Twitter accounts. If you don't have one of those, you're fine. But if you do have one, there's a ...

The Canal Papers

18 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

You know all the stuff we've been talking about here the past few years - mental mountains, trapped priors, relaxed beliefs under psychedelics? The n...

Your Book Review: Man's Search for Meaning

14 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #4 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymo...

Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context

09 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Sometimes people do a study and find that a particular correlation is r = 0.2, or a particular effect size is d = 1.1. Then an article tries to "put t...

Highlights From The Comments On The Academic Job Market

09 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Original post: Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird? Table Of Contents Comments With More Information On Academic Hiring 2. Comments About How Thi...

Your Book Review: Why Machines Will Never Rule the World

04 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #3 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymo...

Links For May 2023

04 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-may-2023 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spo...

All Medications Are Insignificant In The Eyes Of God And Traditional Effect Size Criteria

04 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In this post, the author suggests that the standard metrics for assessing the efficacy of medications, especially antidepressants, may be flawed and r...

Are Woo Non-Responders Defective?

04 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

This post explores the differing responses to alternative wellness practices, suggesting various explanations, and highlights the challenge of discern...

Your Book Review: Lying for Money

02 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

27 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

"Female hypergamy" (from now on, just "hypergamy") is a supposed tendency for women to seek husbands who are higher-status than themselves. Arguing ab...

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

25 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-52223 Whales v. Minnows // US v. Itself // EPJ v. The Veil Of Time // Balaji v. Medlock Manifold i...

Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism

21 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird?

19 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Bret Devereaux writes here about the oddities of the academic job market. His piece is comprehensive, and you should read it, but short version: profe...

Galton, Ehrlich, Buck - An exploding generational bomb

19 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Adam Mastroianni has a great review of Memories Of My Life, the autobiography of Francis Galton. Mastroianni centers his piece around the question: ho...

Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality

17 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Table of Contents 1. Summary Of Best Comments And Overall Updates 2. Comments Proposing Explanations Based On Response Patterns 3. Comments Proposing ...

Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices

14 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-housing Table Of Contents: 1. Comments About Whether Density Causes Desirabilit...

Constitutional AI: RLHF On Steroids

12 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/constitutional-ai-rlhf-on-steroids A Machine Alignment Monday post, 5/8/23 What Is Constitutional AI? AIs like ...

Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality

10 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/raise-your-threshold-for-accusing I. Many comments in yesterday's post about self-identified bisexuals getting ...

Replication Attempt: Bisexuality And Long COVID

10 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/replication-attempt-bisexuality-and I learned from Pirate Wires that CDC data show bisexuals were about 50% mor...

Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices

08 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/change-my-mind-density-increases Matt Yglesias tries to debunk the claim that building more houses raises local...

Highlights From The Comments On Nerds And Hipsters

04 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-nerds Table of contents: 1: Comments By The Author Of The Original Post 2: Comm...

Mantic Monday 4/24/23

29 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-42423 Can AIs Predict The Future? By Which We Mean The Past? If we asked GPT-4 to play a predictio...

Links For April 2023

29 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-april-2023   [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will e...

Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters

22 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Sam Kriss has a post on nerds and hipsters. I think he gets the hipsters right, but bungles the nerds. Hipsters, he says, are an information sorting a...

[CLASSIC POST] Book Review: The Hungry Brain

22 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Content note: food, dieting, obesity] I. The Hungry Brain gives off a bit of a Malcolm Gladwell vibe, with its cutesy name and pop-neuroscience styl...

Highlights From The Comments On IRBs

21 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Table of Contents 1: Comments From The Author Of The Book 2: Stories From People In The Trenches 3: Stories From People In Other Industries 4: Stories...

Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill

14 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-from-oversight-to-overkill I. Risks May Include AIDS, Smallpox, And Death Dr. Rob Knight studies ho...

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2023

14 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/spring-meetups-everywhere-2023 Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to ...

Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias

09 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-arctic-hysterias I. Strange things are done in the midnight sun, say the poets who wrote of old...

Most Technologies Aren't Races

09 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/most-technologies-arent-races [Disclaimer: I'm not an AI policy person, the people who are have thought about t...

Highlights From The Comments On Telemedicine Regulations

09 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-telemedicine [Original post: The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inc...

MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy

04 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mr-tries-the-safe-uncertainty-fallacy The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy goes: The situation is completely uncertai...

The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again

04 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-government-is-making-telemedicine [I'm writing this quickly to deal with an evolving situation and I'm not ...

Turing Test

30 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/turing-test The year is 2028, and this is Turing Test!, the game show that separates man from machine! Our star ...

Half An Hour Before Dawn In San Francisco

25 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/half-an-hour-before-dawn-in-san-francisco I try to avoid San Francisco. When I go, I surround myself with peopl...

Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?

25 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-transgender-people-report [Related: Why Are Transgender People Immune To Optical Illusions?] I. Ehlers-D...

Why I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)

25 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 3/13/23 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-i-am-not-as-much-of-a-doomer (see also Katja Grace and Will Eden's related...

Links For March 2023

25 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-march-2023 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up s...

Give Up Seventy Percent Of The Way Through The Hyperstitious Slur Cascade

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/give-up-seventy-percent-of-the-way I. Someone asks: why is "Jap" a slur? It's the natural shortening of "Japane...

Issue Two Of Asterisk

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/issue-two-of-asterisk …the new-ish rationalist / effective altruist magazine, is up here. It's the food issue....

Kelly Bets On Civilization

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/kelly-bets-on-civilization Scott Aaronson makes the case for being less than maximally hostile to AI development...

Impact Market Mini-Grants Update

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-market-mini-grants-update Impact markets are a charity analogy to private equity. Instead of prospective...

Against Ice Age Civilizations

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-ice-age-civilizations There's a good debate about this on the subreddit; see also Robin Hanson and Samo...

OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond"

06 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/openais-planning-for-agi-and-beyond Planning For AGI And Beyond Imagine ExxonMobil releases a statement on clim...

Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness

05 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Plus: A case for culture-bound mental disorder skepticism https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-geography [Original p...

Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants

05 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/announcing-forecasting-impact-mini I still dream of running an ACX Grants round using impact certificates, but ...

Book Review: The Geography Of Madness

04 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-geography-of-madness Around the wide world, all cultures share a few key features. Anthropologi...

Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

04 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023 To celebrate the fifth anniversary of my old blog, in 2018, I made some pr...

Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

18 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/declining-sperm-count-much-more-than  Is Sperm Count Declining? People say it is. Levine et al 2017 looks at 1...

Trying Again On Fideism

17 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trying-again-on-fideism [apologies for an issue encountered when sending out this post; some of you may have got...

Contra Kavanagh On Fideism

15 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-kavanaugh-on-fideism   I. I've been looking into the world of YouTube streamers; if you want to make...

Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23

15 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ro-mantic-monday-21323 In honor of Valentine's Day, this installment of Mantic Monday will focus on attempted cl...

Links For February 2023

13 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-february-2023 [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end u...

Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)

07 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/crowds-are-wise-and-ones-a-crowd The long road to Moscow The "wisdom of crowds" hypothesis claims that the ...

Mostly Skeptical Thoughts On The Chatbot Propaganda Apocalypse

07 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the People worry about chatbot propaganda. The simplest concern is that you could ...

Book Review Contest Rules 2023

03 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Basically the same as 2022 - this is just a reminder to start working on entries https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2023...

Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin

03 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/response-to-alexandros-contra-me I. In November 2021, I posted Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know, w...

Mantic Monday 1/30/2023

01 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-1302023 One million Metaculi, fake stocks, scandal markets again Happy One Millionth Prediction, M...

Janus' Simulators

29 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/janus-simulators This post isn't exactly about AI. But the first three parts will be kind of technical AI stuff,...

You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders

26 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/you-dont-want-a-purely-biological CONTENT NOTE: This essay contains sentences that would look bad taken out of ...

Who Predicted 2022?

26 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022 Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest Last year saw surging inflation, a ...

ACX Survey Results 2022

22 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-survey-results-2022 Thanks to the 7,341 people who took the 2022 Astral Codex Ten survey. See the questi...

Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?

22 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/which-political-victories-cause-backlash Four years ago I wrote Trump: A Setback For Trumpism, pointing out tha...

SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types

19 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ssc-survey-results-on-schooling-types Taken from the 2020 Slate Star Codex Survey. SSC/ACX readers are a heavil...

2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-subscription-drive-free-unlocked Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50...

Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/conspiracies-of-cognition-conspiracies I. Some conspiracy theories center on finding anomalies in a narrative. ...

Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying

17 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-061 Originally: The Media Very Rarely Lies and Sorry, I Still Think I Am Ri...

Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to the 3295 of you who participated in Stage 1 of the 2023 Prediction Contest ("Blind Mode"). This is now closed. You can keep submitting Bli...

Even More Bay Area House Party

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/even-more-bay-area-house-party [Previously: Every Bay Area House Party, Another Bay Area House Party] People ta...

How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Future Matrioshka brains will be pro-immigration Buddhist gun nuts. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-do-ais-political-opinions-change I. Tec...

Take The 2022 ACX Survey!

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Each year, I post a reader survey. This helps me learn who's reading this blog. But it also helps me try to replicate a bunch of psych findings, and...

Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Answers to your proposed counterexamples https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/sorry-i-still-think-i-am-right-about         Last w...

Links For December 2022

02 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...

Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys

02 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/selection-bias-is-a-fact-of-life Sometimes people do amateur research through online surveys. Then they find in...

[Classic] Abraham Lincoln, Ape-Man

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/02/12/abraham-lincoln-ape-man/ Posted on February 12, 2013 Away with LiveJournal, and in with a new, sleeker-looking b...

Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/fact-check-do-all-healthy-people I saw this on Twitter the other day… …and realized I had the data to...

The Media Very Rarely Lies

24 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

"With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies Rela...

Prediction Market FAQ

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq This is a FAQ about prediction markets. I am a big proponent of them but have tried my ...

2023 Prediction Contest

20 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has ...

Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/perhaps-it-is-a-bad-thing-that-the I. The Game Is Afoot   Last month I wrote about Redwood Research's fanf...

Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-bobos Table of contents: 1. Comments Doubting The Book's Thesis 2. Comments Fro...

Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency

11 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-im-less-than-infinitely-hostile Go anywhere in Silicon Valley these days and start saying the word "cryp - ...

Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits

11 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/know-your-gaba-a-receptor-subunits Many psychiatric drugs and supplements affect GABA, the brain's main inhibit...

Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-first-sixth-of-bobos I. David Brooks' Bobos In Paradise is an uneven book. The first sixth is a ...

Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-semaglutide Table of contents: 1. Top Comments 2. More Tips On Getting Cheap Se...

Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We're showcasing a hot new totally bopping, popping musical track called "bromancer era? bromancer era?? bromancer era???" His subtle sublime thoughts...

Semaglutidonomics

25 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

140 million obese Americans x $15,000/year for obesity drugs = . . . uh oh, that can't be right. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomi...

"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

I wrote an article on whether wine is fake. It's not here, it's at asteriskmag.com, the new rationalist / effective altruist magazine. Congratulations...

Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition

22 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Plus FTX charges, scandal markets - and oh yeah, wasn't there some kind of midterm recently? https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twit...

The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-psychopharmacology-of-the-ftx Must not blog about FTX . . . must not blog about . . . ah, $#@% it    ...

Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States

13 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-resident-contrarian-on-unfalsifiable I. Contra Resident Contrarian . . . Resident Contrarian writes On U...