Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Episodes
Nobody Can Make You Feel Genetically Inferior Without Your Consent
23 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Lately we've been discussing some of the ethics around genetics and embryo selection. One question that comes up in these debates is - are we claim...
Unsong Available In Paperback
23 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Seven years ago, I wrote an online serial novel, Unsong, about alternate history American kabbalists. You can read the online version here. The onl...
Contra Stone On EA
23 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Lyman Stone wrote an article Why Effective Altruism Is Bad. You know the story by now, let's start with the first argument: The only cities where ...
Links for May 2024
10 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...
A Theoretical "Case Against Education"
10 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There's been renewed debate around Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education recently, so I want to discuss one way I think about this question. Educa...
What Is Going On In IFS?
10 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
In my book review of The Others Within Us, I wrote: [An Internal Family Systems session] isn't supposed to be just the therapist walking you through ...
Book Review: The Others Within Us
10 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Internal Family Systems, the hot new psychotherapy, has a secret. "Hot new psychotherapy" might sound dismissive. It's not. There's always got to be o...
Choose Book Review Finalists 2024
02 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It's time to narrow the 150 entries in the Book Review Contest to about a dozen finalists. I can't read 150 reviews alone, so I need your help. You'll...
Profile: The Far Out Initiative
02 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Suffering is part of the human condition, except when it isn't. I met a man at an ACX meetup once who claimed he has never felt anxiety, not even the ...
Mantic Monday 5/13/24
30 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Manifold pivot || Lab leak hindcasting || CFTC extra-double-bans prediction markets https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-51324
Highlights From The Comments On Hanson And Health Care
30 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Most recent post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Comments From Robin 2: Comments About/From Goldin et al 3: Comments From The Rest Of You Yokels https...
The Emotional Support Animal Racket
28 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
If you're from a country that doesn't have emotional support animals, here's how it works. Sometimes places ban or restrict animals. For example, an a...
Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill
28 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
California's state senate is considering SB1047, a bill to regulate AI. Since OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta are all in California, this would...
Highlights From The Comments On "The Origin Of Woke"
24 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Response From The Author 2: Attempted Fact Checks 3: People With Personal Experience At Their Workplace 4: P...
Book Review: The Origins Of Woke
10 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Origins Of Woke, by Richard Hanania, has an ambitious thesis. And it argues for an ambitious thesis. But the thesis it has isn't the one it argues...
Response to Hanson On Health Care
10 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Robin Hanson replied here to my original post challenging him on health care here. On Straw-Manning Robin thinks I'm straw-manning him. He says: http...
Survey Results: PMS Symptoms
10 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
In November 2022, Aella posted this Twitter poll: 19% of women without pre-menstrual symptoms believed in the supernatural, compared to 39% of women w...
Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument
03 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
One of the most common arguments against AI safety is: Here's an example of a time someone was worried about something, but it didn't happen. Therefo...
Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness
03 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Robin Hanson of Overcoming Bias more or less believes medicine doesn't work [EDIT: see his response here, where he says this is an inaccurate summary ...
Ye Olde Bay Area House Party
03 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] When that April with his sunlight fierce The rainy winter of the coast doth pierce And filleth every spirit with...
Updates on Lumina Probiotic
03 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that I wrote about in December, is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 ...
Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate
26 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Original post here. Table of contents below. I want to especially highlight three things. First, Saar wrote a response to my post (and to zoonosis arg...
Links For April 2024
12 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
12 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than ...
Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
12 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he's been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias. His method - ...
In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
05 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It's every blogger's curse to return to the same arguments again and again. Matt Yglesias has to keep writing "maybe we should do popular things inste...
The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I have data from two big Internet surveys, Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023. Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reporte...
In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of Therapy Culture
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Both the Atlantic's critique of polyamory and my defense of it shared the same villain - "therapy culture", the idea that you should prioritize "findi...
Verses On Five People Being Killed By A Falling Package Of Foreign Aid
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
(inspired by Aid Airdrop Kills Five People In Gaza After Parachute Fails) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/verses-on-five-people-being-killed
Mantic Monday 3/11/24
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Robots of prediction, predictions of robots https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-31124
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There are ACX meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the ...
How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The consensus says "biological race doesn't exist". But if race doesn't exist, how do we justify affirmative action, cultural appropriation, and all o...
ACX Grants Followup Impact Market
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. What's Going On We got 351 proposals for ACX Grants, but were only able to fund 34 of them. I'm not a professional grant evaluator and can't guaran...
Who Predicted 2023?
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a...
Book Review Contest Rules 2024
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
All right, let's do this again. Write a review of a book. There's no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often be...
Links For February 2024
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...
Less Utilitarian Than Thou
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/less-utilitarian-than-thou
Who Does Polygenic Selection Help?
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-does-polygenic-selection-help
Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[Original posts: Contra The Atlantic On Polyamory (subscriber only), You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books] 1: Comments I Can R...
Mantic Monday 2/19/24
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AI forecasters come of age / Prediction market reality TV dating show? / OpenAI's Sora https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-21924
X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/x-fact-check-does-gender-integration
Love And Liberty
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Libertarians don't really have their own holiday. Communists have May Day. The woke have MLK's birthday. Nationalists have July 4th or their local equ...
Sam Altman Wants $7 Trillion
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Sam Altman wants $7 trillion. In one sense, this isn't news. Everyone wants $7 trillion. I want $7 trillion. I'm not going to get it, and Sam Altma...
ACX Grants Results 2024
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or a funder. The best part of ACX Grants is telling the w...
Evolution Explains Polygenic Structure
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We've been gradually working our way through the conversation around E. Fuller Torrey's concerns about schizophrenia genetics - last week we had It's ...
You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Yesterday I criticized The Atlantic's recent invective against polyamory (subscriber-only post, sorry). Today I want to zoom away from the specific...
It's Fair To Describe Schizophrenia As Probably Mostly Genetic
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Famous schizophrenia researcher E. Fuller Torrey recently wrote a paper trying to cast doubt on whether schizophrenia is really genetic. His exact arg...
Seems Like Targeting
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Recently Claudine Gay resigned as President of Harvard over plagiarism accusations and a fumbled Congressional testimony on anti-Semitism. The plag...
Mantic Monday 1/29/24
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Election problems // Trump odds // AI worlds https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12924
The Psychopolitics Of Trauma
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Everyone knows politics makes people crazy. But what kind of crazy? Which page of the DSM is it on? I'm only half joking. Psychiatrists have spent ...
Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
E. Fuller Torrey recently published a journal article trying to cast doubt on the commonly-accepted claim that schizophrenia is mostly genetic. Most o...
Should The Future Be Human?
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 1/22/24 Business Insider: Larry Page Once Called Elon Musk A "Specieist": Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Google cofounder Larry Pag...
Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50 if you can't afford the regular price) per month, and get: Extra articles (us...
Links For January 2024
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Against Learning From Dramatic Events
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Does it matter if COVID was a lab leak? Here's an argument against: not many people still argue that lab leaks are impossible. People were definitely ...
AI Sleeper Agents
20 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 1/15/24 A sleeper agent is an AI that acts innocuous until it gets some trigger, then goes rogue. People might make these on ...
Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity
14 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Does Capitalism Beat Charity?] 1: Comments Where I Want To Reiterate That I'm In Near Mode 2: Comments Directly Arguing Against My Mai...
The Road To Honest AI
14 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms? AIs sometimes lie. They might lie because their creator told them to ...
Does Capitalism Beat Charity?
07 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
"You can't write a check to capitalism directly" This question comes up whenever I discuss philanthropy. It would seem that capitalism is better...
Singing The Blues
07 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[epistemic status: speculative] I. Millgram et al (2015) find that depressed people prefer to listen to sad rather than happy music. This matches pers...
In The Long Run, We're All Dad
02 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. In February 2023 I found myself sitting in the waiting room of a San Francisco fertility clinic, holding a cup of my own semen. The Bible tells the...
Son Of Bride Of Bay Area House Party
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4] It has been three weeks since Sam Altman was fired, but the conversation won't move on. "What did Ilya see?" asks y...
Apply For An ACX Grant (2024)
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
I'm running another ACX Grants round. If you already know what this is and want to apply, use the form here to apply, deadline December 29. Otherwise ...
Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all th...
Beyond "Abolish The FDA"
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Abolish the FDA" has become a popular slogan in libertarian circles. I'm sympathetic to the spirit of the demand. But a slogan isn't a plan, and this...
Mantic Monday 12/4/23
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Sam Altman || Dating site strategy || Metaculus updates || Wars and rumors of wars https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12423
Links For November 2023
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Lots of alcoholics want to quit in principle, but only some join AA" Followup to: In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism Freddie deBoer says effe...
In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"All you do is cause boardroom drama, and maybe some other things I'm forgetting..." I. Search "effective altruism" on social media right now, and it'...
God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Inside every AI is a bigger AI, trying to get out You've probably heard AI is a "black box". No one knows how it works. Researchers simulate a weird t...
Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning
23 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The phrase "I see Satan fall like lightning" comes from Luke 10:18. I'd previously encountered it on insane right-wing conspiracy theory websites. You...
Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The psychiatric study everyone's talking about this month is "Randomized trial of ketamine masked by surgical anesthesia in patients with depression"....
Followup: Quests And Requests
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who commented on Quests And Requests. There was a predictable failure mode: lots of people said "I have relevant expertise and w...
Hardball Questions For The Next Debate
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 2016, 2020; expansion of this] MODERATOR: Hello, and welcome to the third Republican primary debate. To shore up declining vote...
Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: My Left Kidney] 1: Comments From People Who Are Against This Sort Of Thing 2: …From Other People Who Have Donated Kidneys 3: …From...
Quests And Requests
14 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Projects that need incubating I'll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can't guarantee I'll fund all these projects - some of them ...
Dictator Book Club: Chavez
09 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Review of Rory Carroll's "Comandante" [previously in series: Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Xi, Putin] I. All dictators get their start by discovering some loo...
Mantic Monday 10/30/23
07 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Manifest || Manifold.Love || Eyeless in Gaza Last month, the Lighthaven convention center in Berkeley hosted Manifest, the first conference for predic...
My Left Kidney
28 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A person has two kidneys; one advises him to do good and one advises him to do evil. And it stands to reason that the one advising him to do good is ...
Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
18 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last March we (ACX and Manifold Markets) did a test run of an impact market, a novel way of running charitable grants. You can read the details at the...
Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last month, Ben West of the Center for Effective Altruism hosted a debate among long-termists, forecasters, and x-risk activists about pausing AI. ...
How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
In the 1990s, Blanchard and Bogaert proposed the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE). Men with more older brothers were more likely to be gay. "Th...
Links For September 2023
05 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Book Review: The Alexander Romance
28 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[if this looks familiar to you, see explanation here] Sometimes scholars go on a search for "the historical Jesus". They start with the Gospels, then ...
Highlights From The Comments On Elon Musk
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Book Review: Elon Musk] 1: Comments From People With Personal Experience 2: ...Debating Musk's Intelligence 3: ...Debating Musk's Ment...
Book Review Contest 2023 Winners
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are: 1st: The Educated Mind, reviewed by Brandon Hendrickson. Brando...
Book Review: Elon Musk
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Not the new one, sorry This isn't the new Musk biography everyone's talking about. This is the 2015 Musk biography by Ashlee Vance. I started reading ...
Highlights From The Comments On Last Week's Model Cities Post
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Comments On The Solano County City Ecorche writes: The Public's Radio article has a map in it that gives a better idea of the location. It looks like...
Vote In The 2023 Book Review Contest
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you've read the finalists of this year's book review contest, vote for your favorite here. Voting will stay open until Wednesday. Thanks to a help...
Contra Kirkegaard On Evolutionary Definitions Of Mental Illness
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Emil Kirkegaard proposes a semi-objective definition of "mental illness". He's partly responding to me, but I think he mangles my position; he seems t...
Model City Monday 9/4/23: California Dreamin'
09 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Tech moguls plan new city in Solano County Guardian: Silicon Valley Elites Revealed As Buyers Of $800 Million In Land To Build Utopian City. The speci...
My Presidential Platform
09 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The American people deserve a choice. They deserve a candidate who will reject the failed policies of the past and embrace the failed policies of the ...
Your Book Review: Zuozhuan
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest To tell the story of the fall of a realm, it's best to start with its rise. More than three thousand years ago...
Here's Why Automaticity Is Real Actually
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Literal Banana" on Carcinization writes Against Automaticity, which they describe as: An explanation of why tricks like priming, nudge, the placebo ...
Highlights From The Comments On Fetishes
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original post: What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI? Table Of Contents: 1: Alternative Theories Of Fetishes 2: Comments Including Testable Pre...
Mantic Monday 8/28/23
02 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Superconductor autopsy -- Prediction mutual funds -- Flight delays Sorry guys, LK-99 doesn't work. The prediction markets have dropped from highs in t...
Your Book Review: Why Nations Fail
02 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #15 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain ...
Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Volunteers have arranged meetups in 169 cities around the world, from Baghda...
Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original post here. And I forgot to highlight a link to the directory of dating docs. Table Of Contents 1: Comments That Remain At Least Sort Of Again...
More Thoughts On Critical Windows
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On the fetish post, I discussed people who had some early sexual experience - like seeing a sexy cartoon character - and reacted in some profound way,...