Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Episodes
In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of Therapy Culture
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Both the Atlantic's critique of polyamory and my defense of it shared the same villain - "therapy culture", the idea that you should prioritize "findi...
Verses On Five People Being Killed By A Falling Package Of Foreign Aid
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
(inspired by Aid Airdrop Kills Five People In Gaza After Parachute Fails) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/verses-on-five-people-being-killed
Mantic Monday 3/11/24
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Robots of prediction, predictions of robots https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-31124
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There are ACX meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the ...
How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The consensus says "biological race doesn't exist". But if race doesn't exist, how do we justify affirmative action, cultural appropriation, and all o...
ACX Grants Followup Impact Market
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. What's Going On We got 351 proposals for ACX Grants, but were only able to fund 34 of them. I'm not a professional grant evaluator and can't guaran...
Who Predicted 2023?
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a...
Book Review Contest Rules 2024
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
All right, let's do this again. Write a review of a book. There's no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often be...
Links For February 2024
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...
Less Utilitarian Than Thou
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/less-utilitarian-than-thou
Who Does Polygenic Selection Help?
10 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-does-polygenic-selection-help
Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[Original posts: Contra The Atlantic On Polyamory (subscriber only), You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books] 1: Comments I Can R...
Mantic Monday 2/19/24
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AI forecasters come of age / Prediction market reality TV dating show? / OpenAI's Sora https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-21924
X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?
01 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/x-fact-check-does-gender-integration
Love And Liberty
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Libertarians don't really have their own holiday. Communists have May Day. The woke have MLK's birthday. Nationalists have July 4th or their local equ...
Sam Altman Wants $7 Trillion
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Sam Altman wants $7 trillion. In one sense, this isn't news. Everyone wants $7 trillion. I want $7 trillion. I'm not going to get it, and Sam Altma...
ACX Grants Results 2024
16 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or a funder. The best part of ACX Grants is telling the w...
Evolution Explains Polygenic Structure
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We've been gradually working our way through the conversation around E. Fuller Torrey's concerns about schizophrenia genetics - last week we had It's ...
You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Yesterday I criticized The Atlantic's recent invective against polyamory (subscriber-only post, sorry). Today I want to zoom away from the specific...
It's Fair To Describe Schizophrenia As Probably Mostly Genetic
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Famous schizophrenia researcher E. Fuller Torrey recently wrote a paper trying to cast doubt on whether schizophrenia is really genetic. His exact arg...
Seems Like Targeting
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Recently Claudine Gay resigned as President of Harvard over plagiarism accusations and a fumbled Congressional testimony on anti-Semitism. The plag...
Mantic Monday 1/29/24
09 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Election problems // Trump odds // AI worlds https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12924
The Psychopolitics Of Trauma
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. Everyone knows politics makes people crazy. But what kind of crazy? Which page of the DSM is it on? I'm only half joking. Psychiatrists have spent ...
Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
E. Fuller Torrey recently published a journal article trying to cast doubt on the commonly-accepted claim that schizophrenia is mostly genetic. Most o...
Should The Future Be Human?
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 1/22/24 Business Insider: Larry Page Once Called Elon Musk A "Specieist": Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Google cofounder Larry Pag...
Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts
27 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50 if you can't afford the regular price) per month, and get: Extra articles (us...
Links For January 2024
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Against Learning From Dramatic Events
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Does it matter if COVID was a lab leak? Here's an argument against: not many people still argue that lab leaks are impossible. People were definitely ...
AI Sleeper Agents
20 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday 1/15/24 A sleeper agent is an AI that acts innocuous until it gets some trigger, then goes rogue. People might make these on ...
Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity
14 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Does Capitalism Beat Charity?] 1: Comments Where I Want To Reiterate That I'm In Near Mode 2: Comments Directly Arguing Against My Mai...
The Road To Honest AI
14 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms? AIs sometimes lie. They might lie because their creator told them to ...
Does Capitalism Beat Charity?
07 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
"You can't write a check to capitalism directly" This question comes up whenever I discuss philanthropy. It would seem that capitalism is better...
Singing The Blues
07 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
[epistemic status: speculative] I. Millgram et al (2015) find that depressed people prefer to listen to sad rather than happy music. This matches pers...
In The Long Run, We're All Dad
02 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
I. In February 2023 I found myself sitting in the waiting room of a San Francisco fertility clinic, holding a cup of my own semen. The Bible tells the...
Son Of Bride Of Bay Area House Party
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4] It has been three weeks since Sam Altman was fired, but the conversation won't move on. "What did Ilya see?" asks y...
Apply For An ACX Grant (2024)
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
I'm running another ACX Grants round. If you already know what this is and want to apply, use the form here to apply, deadline December 29. Otherwise ...
Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all th...
Beyond "Abolish The FDA"
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Abolish the FDA" has become a popular slogan in libertarian circles. I'm sympathetic to the spirit of the demand. But a slogan isn't a plan, and this...
Mantic Monday 12/4/23
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Sam Altman || Dating site strategy || Metaculus updates || Wars and rumors of wars https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12423
Links For November 2023
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Lots of alcoholics want to quit in principle, but only some join AA" Followup to: In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism Freddie deBoer says effe...
In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"All you do is cause boardroom drama, and maybe some other things I'm forgetting..." I. Search "effective altruism" on social media right now, and it'...
God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Inside every AI is a bigger AI, trying to get out You've probably heard AI is a "black box". No one knows how it works. Researchers simulate a weird t...
Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning
23 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The phrase "I see Satan fall like lightning" comes from Luke 10:18. I'd previously encountered it on insane right-wing conspiracy theory websites. You...
Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The psychiatric study everyone's talking about this month is "Randomized trial of ketamine masked by surgical anesthesia in patients with depression"....
Followup: Quests And Requests
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who commented on Quests And Requests. There was a predictable failure mode: lots of people said "I have relevant expertise and w...
Hardball Questions For The Next Debate
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 2016, 2020; expansion of this] MODERATOR: Hello, and welcome to the third Republican primary debate. To shore up declining vote...
Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation
16 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: My Left Kidney] 1: Comments From People Who Are Against This Sort Of Thing 2: …From Other People Who Have Donated Kidneys 3: …From...
Quests And Requests
14 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Projects that need incubating I'll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can't guarantee I'll fund all these projects - some of them ...
Dictator Book Club: Chavez
09 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Review of Rory Carroll's "Comandante" [previously in series: Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Xi, Putin] I. All dictators get their start by discovering some loo...
Mantic Monday 10/30/23
07 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Manifest || Manifold.Love || Eyeless in Gaza Last month, the Lighthaven convention center in Berkeley hosted Manifest, the first conference for predic...
My Left Kidney
28 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A person has two kidneys; one advises him to do good and one advises him to do evil. And it stands to reason that the one advising him to do good is ...
Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
18 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last March we (ACX and Manifold Markets) did a test run of an impact market, a novel way of running charitable grants. You can read the details at the...
Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last month, Ben West of the Center for Effective Altruism hosted a debate among long-termists, forecasters, and x-risk activists about pausing AI. ...
How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
In the 1990s, Blanchard and Bogaert proposed the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE). Men with more older brothers were more likely to be gay. "Th...
Links For September 2023
05 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Book Review: The Alexander Romance
28 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[if this looks familiar to you, see explanation here] Sometimes scholars go on a search for "the historical Jesus". They start with the Gospels, then ...
Highlights From The Comments On Elon Musk
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Book Review: Elon Musk] 1: Comments From People With Personal Experience 2: ...Debating Musk's Intelligence 3: ...Debating Musk's Ment...
Book Review Contest 2023 Winners
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are: 1st: The Educated Mind, reviewed by Brandon Hendrickson. Brando...
Book Review: Elon Musk
22 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Not the new one, sorry This isn't the new Musk biography everyone's talking about. This is the 2015 Musk biography by Ashlee Vance. I started reading ...
Highlights From The Comments On Last Week's Model Cities Post
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Comments On The Solano County City Ecorche writes: The Public's Radio article has a map in it that gives a better idea of the location. It looks like...
Vote In The 2023 Book Review Contest
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
If you've read the finalists of this year's book review contest, vote for your favorite here. Voting will stay open until Wednesday. Thanks to a help...
Contra Kirkegaard On Evolutionary Definitions Of Mental Illness
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Emil Kirkegaard proposes a semi-objective definition of "mental illness". He's partly responding to me, but I think he mangles my position; he seems t...
Model City Monday 9/4/23: California Dreamin'
09 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Tech moguls plan new city in Solano County Guardian: Silicon Valley Elites Revealed As Buyers Of $800 Million In Land To Build Utopian City. The speci...
My Presidential Platform
09 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The American people deserve a choice. They deserve a candidate who will reject the failed policies of the past and embrace the failed policies of the ...
Your Book Review: Zuozhuan
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest To tell the story of the fall of a realm, it's best to start with its rise. More than three thousand years ago...
Here's Why Automaticity Is Real Actually
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
"Literal Banana" on Carcinization writes Against Automaticity, which they describe as: An explanation of why tricks like priming, nudge, the placebo ...
Highlights From The Comments On Fetishes
05 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original post: What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI? Table Of Contents: 1: Alternative Theories Of Fetishes 2: Comments Including Testable Pre...
Mantic Monday 8/28/23
02 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Superconductor autopsy -- Prediction mutual funds -- Flight delays Sorry guys, LK-99 doesn't work. The prediction markets have dropped from highs in t...
Your Book Review: Why Nations Fail
02 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #15 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain ...
Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Volunteers have arranged meetups in 169 cities around the world, from Baghda...
Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Original post here. And I forgot to highlight a link to the directory of dating docs. Table Of Contents 1: Comments That Remain At Least Sort Of Again...
More Thoughts On Critical Windows
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On the fetish post, I discussed people who had some early sexual experience - like seeing a sexy cartoon character - and reacted in some profound way,...
Critical Periods For Language: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Scott Young writes about Seven Expert Opinions I Agree With That Most People Don't. I like most of them, but #6, Children don't learn languages faster...
What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI?
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Epistemic status: Ha ha, only serious... Arguing about gender is like taking OxyContin. There can be good reasons to do it. But most people don't...
Your Book Review: The Mind Of A Bee
24 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...
Bride Of Bay Area House Party
20 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[previously in series: 1, 2, 3] You spent the evening agonizing over which Bay Area House Party to attend. The YIMBY parties are always too crowded. V...
In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences
20 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The New York Times has an article on "dating docs". These are a local phenomenon - I think an ex of mine might have been Patient Zero. I don't begrudg...
Your Book Review: The Weirdest People in the World
20 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #13 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonym...
Highlights From The Comments On Putin
18 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Dictator Book Club: Putin] Table of Contents: 1. Comments Further Illuminating Putin's Rise To Power 2. Comments Questioning Masha Ges...
Links for August 2023
18 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links i...
Your Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich
12 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll ...
More Memorable Passages From "The Man Without A Face"
12 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Actual serious review here, Amazon link to the book here. These were just some extra parts that stuck out to me. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/...
Dictator Book Club: Putin
09 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Review of Masha Gessen's "The Man Without A Face" [previously in series: Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Xi] I. Vladimir Putin's Childhood As Metaphor For Life ...
Meetups Everywhere Fall 2023 - Call For Organizers
09 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
You can find the meetup organizer volunteer form here. If you want to know if anyone has signed up to run a meetup for your city, you can view that he...
Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
04 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Plus more CFTC, X, and UFOs https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-73123-room-temperature
Your Book Review: On the Marble Cliffs
04 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonym...
Bad Definitions Of "Democracy" And "Accountability" Shade Into Totalitarianism
04 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Suppose there's freedom of religion: everyone can choose what religion to practice. Is there some sense in which this is "undemocratic"? Would it be m...
Highlights From The Comments On Social Model Of Disability
01 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[original post: Contra The Social Model Of Disability] Table Of Contents 1: Comments Defending The Social Model 2: Comments About The Social Model Bei...
We're Not Platonists, We've Just Learned The Bitter Lesson
30 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday, 7/24/23 Intelligence explosion arguments don't require Platonism. They just require intelligence to exist in the normal fuzz...
Your Book Review: The Laws of Trading
30 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...
Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline
30 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
People are talking about British economic decline. Not just the decline from bestriding the world in the 19th century to today. A more recent, more pr...
The Extinction Tournament
25 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
This month's big news in forecasting: the Forecasting Research Institute has released the results of the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)...
Contra The xAI Alignment Plan
20 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Elon Musk has a new AI company, xAI. I appreciate that he seems very concerned about alignment. From his Twitter Spaces discussion: I think I have...
Your Book Review: The Educated Mind
20 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...
Contra The Social Model Of Disability
17 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
What is the Social Model Of Disability? I'll let its proponents describe it in their own words (emphases and line breaks mine) The Social Model Of Dis...
Why Match School And Student Rank?
14 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Matt Yglesias' five-year old son asks: why do we send the top students to the best colleges? Why not send the weakest students to the best colleges, s...
Your Book Review: Secret Government
13 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Finalist #8 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymo...
Links For July 2023
13 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...
Tales Of Takeover In CCF-World
13 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Machine Alignment Monday, 7/3/2023 Tom Davidson's Compute-Centric Framework report forecasts a continuous but fast AI takeoff, where people hand contr...