Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Some Practical Considerations Before Descending Into An Orgy Of Vengeance

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The "LibsOfTikTok" Twitter account found a random Home Depot employee who said she wished the Trump assassin hadn't missed. Her followers mass-called ...

Your Book Review: How Language Began

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #5 in the Book Review Contest https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-how-language-began  [This is one of the finalists in the 20...

Highlights From The Comments On Mentally Ill Homeless People

10 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[Original post here] Table Of Contents 1: Responses To Broad Categories Of Objections 2: Responses To Specific Comments 3: Comments By People Who Have...

Consciousness As Recursive Reflections

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A guest post by Daniel Böttger [Editor's note: I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Daniel Böttger...

Your Book Review: The Family That Couldn't Sleep

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Lifeboat Games And Backscratchers Clubs

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Ten people are stuck on a lifeboat after their ship sank. It will be weeks before anyone finds them, and they're out of food. They've heard this story...

Details That You Should Include In Your Article On How We Should Do Something About Mentally Ill Homeless People

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Suppose that you, an ordinary person, open your door and start choking on yellow smoke. You call up your representative and say "there should be le...

Your Book Review: Don Juan

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #3 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymo...

Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The last week hasn't been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Bide...

Your Book Review: Dominion

10 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

My 2024 Presidential Debate

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Alexander: Hello and welcome to the first Presidential debate of 2024. Based on the remarkable popularity of the previous debates I moderated (2016, 2...

Clarification On "Fake Tradition Is Traditional"

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I think I got the original post slightly off. I was critiquing Sam Kriss' claim that the best traditions come from "just doing stuff", without trying ...

Your Book Review: Autobiography Of Yukichi Fukuzawa

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I had been living in Japan for a year before I got the idea to look up whose portraits were on the banknotes I was handling every day. In the United S...

Fake Tradition Is Traditional

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. A: I like Indian food. B: Oh, so you like a few bites of flavorless rice daily? Because India is a very poor country, and that's a more realistic ...

Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Steve Kirsch is an inventor and businessman most famous for developing the optical mouse. More recently, he's become an anti-COVID-vaccine activist...

Nobody Can Make You Feel Genetically Inferior Without Your Consent

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Lately we've been discussing some of the ethics around genetics and embryo selection. One question that comes up in these debates is - are we claim...

Unsong Available In Paperback

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Seven years ago, I wrote an online serial novel, Unsong, about alternate history American kabbalists. You can read the online version here. The onl...

Contra Stone On EA

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Lyman Stone wrote an article Why Effective Altruism Is Bad. You know the story by now, let's start with the first argument: The only cities where ...

Links for May 2024

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

A Theoretical "Case Against Education"

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's been renewed debate around Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education recently, so I want to discuss one way I think about this question. Educa...

What Is Going On In IFS?

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In my book review of The Others Within Us, I wrote: [An Internal Family Systems session] isn't supposed to be just the therapist walking you through ...

Book Review: The Others Within Us

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Internal Family Systems, the hot new psychotherapy, has a secret. "Hot new psychotherapy" might sound dismissive. It's not. There's always got to be o...

Choose Book Review Finalists 2024

02 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's time to narrow the 150 entries in the Book Review Contest to about a dozen finalists. I can't read 150 reviews alone, so I need your help. You'll...

Profile: The Far Out Initiative

02 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Suffering is part of the human condition, except when it isn't. I met a man at an ACX meetup once who claimed he has never felt anxiety, not even the ...

Mantic Monday 5/13/24

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Manifold pivot || Lab leak hindcasting || CFTC extra-double-bans prediction markets  https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-51324

Highlights From The Comments On Hanson And Health Care

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Most recent post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Comments From Robin 2: Comments About/From Goldin et al 3: Comments From The Rest Of You Yokels https...

The Emotional Support Animal Racket

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

If you're from a country that doesn't have emotional support animals, here's how it works. Sometimes places ban or restrict animals. For example, an a...

Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

California's state senate is considering SB1047, a bill to regulate AI. Since OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta are all in California, this would...

Highlights From The Comments On "The Origin Of Woke"

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Response From The Author 2: Attempted Fact Checks 3: People With Personal Experience At Their Workplace 4: P...

Book Review: The Origins Of Woke

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Origins Of Woke, by Richard Hanania, has an ambitious thesis. And it argues for an ambitious thesis. But the thesis it has isn't the one it argues...

Response to Hanson On Health Care

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Robin Hanson replied here to my original post challenging him on health care here. On Straw-Manning Robin thinks I'm straw-manning him. He says: http...

Survey Results: PMS Symptoms

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In November 2022, Aella posted this Twitter poll: 19% of women without pre-menstrual symptoms believed in the supernatural, compared to 39% of women w...

Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the most common arguments against AI safety is: Here's an example of a time someone was worried about something, but it didn't happen. Therefo...

Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Robin Hanson of Overcoming Bias more or less believes medicine doesn't work [EDIT: see his response here, where he says this is an inaccurate summary ...

Ye Olde Bay Area House Party

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] When that April with his sunlight fierce The rainy winter of the coast doth pierce And filleth every spirit with...

Updates on Lumina Probiotic

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that I wrote about in December, is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 ...

Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original post here. Table of contents below. I want to especially highlight three things. First, Saar wrote a response to my post (and to zoonosis arg...

Links For April 2024

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than ...

Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he's been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias. His method - ...

In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

05 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's every blogger's curse to return to the same arguments again and again. Matt Yglesias has to keep writing "maybe we should do popular things inste...

The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I have data from two big Internet surveys, Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023. Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reporte...

In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of Therapy Culture

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Both the Atlantic's critique of polyamory and my defense of it shared the same villain - "therapy culture", the idea that you should prioritize "findi...

Verses On Five People Being Killed By A Falling Package Of Foreign Aid

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

(inspired by Aid Airdrop Kills Five People In Gaza After Parachute Fails) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/verses-on-five-people-being-killed 

Mantic Monday 3/11/24

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Robots of prediction, predictions of robots https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-31124 

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There are ACX meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the ...

How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?

15 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The consensus says "biological race doesn't exist". But if race doesn't exist, how do we justify affirmative action, cultural appropriation, and all o...

ACX Grants Followup Impact Market

15 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. What's Going On We got 351 proposals for ACX Grants, but were only able to fund 34 of them. I'm not a professional grant evaluator and can't guaran...

Who Predicted 2023?

15 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a...

Book Review Contest Rules 2024

15 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

All right, let's do this again. Write a review of a book. There's no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often be...

Links For February 2024

10 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Less Utilitarian Than Thou

10 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/less-utilitarian-than-thou 

Who Does Polygenic Selection Help?

10 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-does-polygenic-selection-help 

Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory

01 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[Original posts: Contra The Atlantic On Polyamory (subscriber only), You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books] 1: Comments I Can R...

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

01 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

AI forecasters come of age / Prediction market reality TV dating show? / OpenAI's Sora https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-21924   

X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?

01 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/x-fact-check-does-gender-integration 

Love And Liberty

16 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Libertarians don't really have their own holiday. Communists have May Day. The woke have MLK's birthday. Nationalists have July 4th or their local equ...

Sam Altman Wants $7 Trillion

16 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Sam Altman wants $7 trillion. In one sense, this isn't news. Everyone wants $7 trillion. I want $7 trillion. I'm not going to get it, and Sam Altma...

ACX Grants Results 2024

16 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or a funder. The best part of ACX Grants is telling the w...

Evolution Explains Polygenic Structure

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We've been gradually working our way through the conversation around E. Fuller Torrey's concerns about schizophrenia genetics - last week we had It's ...

You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Yesterday I criticized The Atlantic's recent invective against polyamory (subscriber-only post, sorry). Today I want to zoom away from the specific...

It's Fair To Describe Schizophrenia As Probably Mostly Genetic

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Famous schizophrenia researcher E. Fuller Torrey recently wrote a paper trying to cast doubt on whether schizophrenia is really genetic. His exact arg...

Seems Like Targeting

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Recently Claudine Gay resigned as President of Harvard over plagiarism accusations and a fumbled Congressional testimony on anti-Semitism. The plag...

Mantic Monday 1/29/24

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Election problems // Trump odds // AI worlds https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12924 

The Psychopolitics Of Trauma

27 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Everyone knows politics makes people crazy. But what kind of crazy? Which page of the DSM is it on? I'm only half joking. Psychiatrists have spent ...

Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders

27 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

E. Fuller Torrey recently published a journal article trying to cast doubt on the commonly-accepted claim that schizophrenia is mostly genetic. Most o...

Should The Future Be Human?

27 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 1/22/24 Business Insider: Larry Page Once Called Elon Musk A "Specieist": Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Google cofounder Larry Pag...

Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts

27 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50 if you can't afford the regular price) per month, and get: Extra articles (us...

Links For January 2024

22 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...

Against Learning From Dramatic Events

22 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Does it matter if COVID was a lab leak? Here's an argument against: not many people still argue that lab leaks are impossible. People were definitely ...

AI Sleeper Agents

20 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Machine Alignment Monday 1/15/24 A sleeper agent is an AI that acts innocuous until it gets some trigger, then goes rogue. People might make these on ...

Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity

14 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[original post: Does Capitalism Beat Charity?] 1: Comments Where I Want To Reiterate That I'm In Near Mode 2: Comments Directly Arguing Against My Mai...

The Road To Honest AI

14 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms? AIs sometimes lie. They might lie because their creator told them to ...

Does Capitalism Beat Charity?

07 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

"You can't write a check to capitalism directly" This question comes up whenever I discuss philanthropy. It would seem that capitalism is better...

Singing The Blues

07 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[epistemic status: speculative] I. Millgram et al (2015) find that depressed people prefer to listen to sad rather than happy music. This matches pers...

In The Long Run, We're All Dad

02 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. In February 2023 I found myself sitting in the waiting room of a San Francisco fertility clinic, holding a cup of my own semen. The Bible tells the...

Son Of Bride Of Bay Area House Party

18 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4] It has been three weeks since Sam Altman was fired, but the conversation won't move on. "What did Ilya see?" asks y...

Apply For An ACX Grant (2024)

18 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

I'm running another ACX Grants round. If you already know what this is and want to apply, use the form here to apply, deadline December 29. Otherwise ...

Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ

18 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all th...

Beyond "Abolish The FDA"

13 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

"Abolish the FDA" has become a popular slogan in libertarian circles. I'm sympathetic to the spirit of the demand. But a slogan isn't a plan, and this...

Mantic Monday 12/4/23

13 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Sam Altman || Dating site strategy || Metaculus updates || Wars and rumors of wars https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-12423 

Links For November 2023

04 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...

Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games

04 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

"Lots of alcoholics want to quit in principle, but only some join AA" Followup to: In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism Freddie deBoer says effe...

In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism

01 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

"All you do is cause boardroom drama, and maybe some other things I'm forgetting..." I. Search "effective altruism" on social media right now, and it'...

God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity

01 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Inside every AI is a bigger AI, trying to get out You've probably heard AI is a "black box". No one knows how it works. Researchers simulate a weird t...

Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning

23 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The phrase "I see Satan fall like lightning" comes from Luke 10:18. I'd previously encountered it on insane right-wing conspiracy theory websites. You...

Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?

20 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The psychiatric study everyone's talking about this month is "Randomized trial of ketamine masked by surgical anesthesia in patients with depression"....

Followup: Quests And Requests

20 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to everyone who commented on Quests And Requests. There was a predictable failure mode: lots of people said "I have relevant expertise and w...

Hardball Questions For The Next Debate

16 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in series: 2016, 2020; expansion of this] MODERATOR: Hello, and welcome to the third Republican primary debate. To shore up declining vote...

Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation

16 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[original post: My Left Kidney] 1: Comments From People Who Are Against This Sort Of Thing 2: …From Other People Who Have Donated Kidneys 3: …From...

Quests And Requests

14 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Projects that need incubating I'll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can't guarantee I'll fund all these projects - some of them ...

Dictator Book Club: Chavez

09 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Review of Rory Carroll's "Comandante" [previously in series: Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Xi, Putin] I. All dictators get their start by discovering some loo...

Mantic Monday 10/30/23

07 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Manifest || Manifold.Love || Eyeless in Gaza Last month, the Lighthaven convention center in Berkeley hosted Manifest, the first conference for predic...

My Left Kidney

28 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A person has two kidneys; one advises him to do good and one advises him to do evil. And it stands to reason that the one advising him to do good is ...

Impact Market Mini-Grants Results

18 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Last March we (ACX and Manifold Markets) did a test run of an impact market, a novel way of running charitable grants. You can read the details at the...

Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate

09 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Last month, Ben West of the Center for Effective Altruism hosted a debate among long-termists, forecasters, and x-risk activists about pausing AI. ...

How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?

09 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In the 1990s, Blanchard and Bogaert proposed the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE). Men with more older brothers were more likely to be gay. "Th...

Links For September 2023

05 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in e...

Book Review: The Alexander Romance

28 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[if this looks familiar to you, see explanation here] Sometimes scholars go on a search for "the historical Jesus". They start with the Gospels, then ...

Highlights From The Comments On Elon Musk

22 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

[original post: Book Review: Elon Musk] 1: Comments From People With Personal Experience 2: ...Debating Musk's Intelligence 3: ...Debating Musk's Ment...