Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Links For January 2025

04 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Highlights From The Comments On Lynn And IQ

04 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Shaked Koplewitz writes: Doesn't Lynn's IQ measure also suffer from the IQ/g discrepancy that causes the Flynn effect? That is, my understanding of ...

How To Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Lynn's National IQ Estimates

04 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Richard Lynn was a scientist who infamously tried to estimate the average IQ of every country. Typical of his results is this paper, which ranged fro...

Bureaucracy Isn't Measured In Bureaucrats

27 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

I was surprised to see someone with such experience in the pharmaceutical industry say this, because it goes against how I understood the FDA to work....

On Priesthoods

27 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Some recent political discussion has focused on "the institutions" or "the priesthoods". I'm part of one of these (the medical establishment), so here...

It's Still Easier To Imagine The End Of The World Than The End Of Capitalism

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

I. No Set Gauge has a great essay on Capital, AGI, and Human Ambition, where he argues that if humankind survives the Singularity, the likely result i...

H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What is the H5N1 bird flu? Will it cause the next big pandemic? If so, how bad would that pandemic be? Wait, What Even Is Flu? Flu is a disease caused...

Why Worry About Incorrigible Claude?

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Last week I wrote about how Claude Fights Back. A common genre of response complained that the alignment community could start a panic about the exper...

Claude Fights Back

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Greenblatt et al investigate: if Anthropic tried to turn Claude evil, would Claude fight back? (if you're just joining us - Claude is an AI model sim...

Links For December 2024

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Highlights From The Comments On Prison

21 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

[Original post here - Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know] Table of Contents: 1: Comments On Criminal Psychology 2: Comments On Polic...

Indulge Your Internet Addiction By Reading About Internet Addiction

25 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Internet addiction may not be as bad as some other forms of addiction, but it's more common (and more personal). I have young children now and wanted ...

Friendly And Hostile Analogies For Taste

25 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Recently we've gotten into discussions about artistic taste (see comments on AI Art Turing Test and From Bauhaus To Our House). This is a bit mysterio...

Book Review: From Bauhaus To Our House

25 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Like most people, Tom Wolfe didn't like modern architecture. He wondered why we abandoned our patrimony of cathedrals and palaces for a million indist...

Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Do longer prison sentences reduce crime? It seems obvious that they should. Even if they don't deter anyone, they at least keep criminals locked up wh...

Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Suppose something important will happen at a certain unknown point. As someone approaches that point, you might be tempted to warn that the thing will...

How Did You Do On The AI Art Turing Test?

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last month, I challenged 11,000 people to classify fifty pictures as either human art or AI-generated images. I originally planned five human and five...

The Early Christian Strategy

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 1980, game theorist Robert Axelrod ran a famous Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma Tournament. He asked other game theorists to send in their best strateg...

Book Review: The Rise Of Christianity

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The rise of Christianity is a great puzzle. In 40 AD, there were maybe a thousand Christians. Their Messiah had just been executed, and they were on t...

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Polymarket (and prediction markets in general) had an amazing Election Night. They called states impressively early and accurately, kept the site s...

Links For November 2024

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A red sun dawns over San Francisco. Juxtaposed against clouds and sea, it forms a patriotic tableau: blood red, deathly white, and the blue of th...

ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Time to own the libs! ACX joins such based heterodox thinkers as Curtis Yarvin, Nick Fuentes, Richard Spencer, and David Duke in telling you wha...

The Case Against California Proposition 36

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is a guest post by Clara Collier. Clara is the editor of Asterisk Magazine.] Proposition 36 is a California ballot measure that increases mandat...

Notes From The Progress Studies Conference

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Tyler Cowen is an economics professor and blogger at Marginal Revolution. Patrick Collison is the billionaire founder of the online payments company S...

Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Median Voter Theorem says that, given some reasonable assumptions, the candidate closest to the beliefs of the median voter will win. So if ca...

ACX Local Voting Guides

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to our local meetup groups for doing this! Quick lookup version: AUSTIN: Guide here BOSTON: Guide here CHICAGO: Guide here LOS ANGELES: Guid...

Book Review: Deep Utopia

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What problem do we get after we've solved all other problems? I. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom got famous for asking "What if technology is really r...

AI Art Turing Test

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Okay, let's do this! Link is here, should take about twenty minutes. I'll close the form on Monday 10/21 and post results the following week. I'll...

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are: 1st: Two Arms And A Head, reviewed by AmandaFromBethlehem. Aman...

SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. My ex-girlfriend has a weird relationship to reality. Her actions ripple out into the world more heavily than other people's. She finds herself at ...

Triple Tragedy And Thankful Theory

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Earlier this year, I published Daniel Böttger's essay Conscio...

Against The Cultural Christianity Argument

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The "cultural Christianity" argument says that atheists might not like Christianity, but they like a culture which depends on Christianity. They like ...

Preliminary Milei Report Card

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

How is Javier Milei, the new-ish libertarian president of Argentina doing? According to right-wing sources, he's doing amazing, inflation is vanquishe...

How Often Do Men Think About Rome?

19 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Exegi monumentum aere perennius There's a Twitter meme on how men constantly think about the Roman Empire. Some feminist friends objected that women t...

Your Book Review: The Ballad of the White Horse

19 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #14 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain ...

Sakana, Strawberry, and Scary AI

16 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Sakana (website, paper) is supposed to be "an AI scientist". Since it can't access the physical world, it can only do computer science. Its human h...

Mantic Monday 9/16/24

16 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Probably No Superintelligent Forecaster Yet FiveThirtyNine (ha ha) is a new forecasting AI that purports to be "superintelligent", ie able to bea...

Your Book Review: Nine Lives

14 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #13 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonym...

Links For September 2024

01 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Contra DeBoer On Temporal Copernicanism

01 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Freddie deBoer has a post on what he calls "the temporal Copernican principle." He argues we shouldn't expect a singularity, apocalypse, or any other ...

Your Book Review: The Pale King

01 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Highlights From The Comments On "Sorry You Feel That Way"

22 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[Original post here.] Aeon writes: The main complaint about this expression is that it's "not a real apology," and that's true, it isn't. The error i...

Interview Day At Thiel Capital

22 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

You look up from your massive mahogany desk. "Tom, right? Thank you for coming…hmm…I see you're applying for the role of Vice-President Of Siniste...

Your Book Review: The History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe

22 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonym...

In Defense Of "I'm Sorry You Feel That Way"

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And its cousin, "I'm sorry if you're offended" People hate this phrase. They say it's a fake apology that only gets used to dismiss others' concerns. ...

Your Book Review: The Complete Rhyming Dictionary and Poet's Craft Book (1936 Edition)

17 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest  [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anon...

The Compounding Loophole

17 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Now that we've gone over the pharmacology of the GLP-1 agonists, let's get back to the economics. Last time, we asked - how will the economy handle...

Lukianoff And Defining Cancel Culture

17 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In a recent post, I said that part of opposing cancel culture is to rigorously define it. Greg Lukianoff, president of FIRE, took up the challenge. Hi...

Your Book Review: Silver Age Marvel Comics

09 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #9 in the Book Review Contest You are a serious person with serious interests. The last comic book you read was more likely by Bryan Caplan t...

Why Does Ozempic Cure All Diseases?

09 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Fine, the title is an exaggeration. But only a small one. GLP-1 receptor agonist medications like Ozempic are already FDA-approved to treat diabetes a...

Your Book Review: How the War Was Won

26 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll ...

Highlights From The Comments On Nietzsche

26 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[original post here] Table Of Contents I. Comments About Master And Slave Morality II. Comments By People Named In The Post III. Comments Making Speci...

Altruism And Vitalism As Fellow Travelers

26 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Some commenters on the recent post accused me of misunderstanding the Nietzschean objection to altruism. We hate altruism, they said, not because w...

Your Book Review: Two Arms and a Head

26 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Matt Yglesias Considered As The Nietzschean Superman

22 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Bentham's Bulldog Blogger "Bentham's Bulldog" recently wrote Shut Up About Slave Morality. Nietzsche's concept of "slave morality" (he writes) is j...

Your Book Review: Real Raw News

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Links for July 2024

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Some Practical Considerations Before Descending Into An Orgy Of Vengeance

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The "LibsOfTikTok" Twitter account found a random Home Depot employee who said she wished the Trump assassin hadn't missed. Her followers mass-called ...

Your Book Review: How Language Began

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #5 in the Book Review Contest https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-how-language-began  [This is one of the finalists in the 20...

Highlights From The Comments On Mentally Ill Homeless People

10 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[Original post here] Table Of Contents 1: Responses To Broad Categories Of Objections 2: Responses To Specific Comments 3: Comments By People Who Have...

Consciousness As Recursive Reflections

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A guest post by Daniel Böttger [Editor's note: I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Daniel Böttger...

Your Book Review: The Family That Couldn't Sleep

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

Lifeboat Games And Backscratchers Clubs

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Ten people are stuck on a lifeboat after their ship sank. It will be weeks before anyone finds them, and they're out of food. They've heard this story...

Details That You Should Include In Your Article On How We Should Do Something About Mentally Ill Homeless People

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Suppose that you, an ordinary person, open your door and start choking on yellow smoke. You call up your representative and say "there should be le...

Your Book Review: Don Juan

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Finalist #3 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymo...

Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The last week hasn't been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Bide...

Your Book Review: Dominion

10 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be ...

My 2024 Presidential Debate

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Alexander: Hello and welcome to the first Presidential debate of 2024. Based on the remarkable popularity of the previous debates I moderated (2016, 2...

Clarification On "Fake Tradition Is Traditional"

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I think I got the original post slightly off. I was critiquing Sam Kriss' claim that the best traditions come from "just doing stuff", without trying ...

Your Book Review: Autobiography Of Yukichi Fukuzawa

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I had been living in Japan for a year before I got the idea to look up whose portraits were on the banknotes I was handling every day. In the United S...

Fake Tradition Is Traditional

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. A: I like Indian food. B: Oh, so you like a few bites of flavorless rice daily? Because India is a very poor country, and that's a more realistic ...

Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Steve Kirsch is an inventor and businessman most famous for developing the optical mouse. More recently, he's become an anti-COVID-vaccine activist...

Nobody Can Make You Feel Genetically Inferior Without Your Consent

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Lately we've been discussing some of the ethics around genetics and embryo selection. One question that comes up in these debates is - are we claim...

Unsong Available In Paperback

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Seven years ago, I wrote an online serial novel, Unsong, about alternate history American kabbalists. You can read the online version here. The onl...

Contra Stone On EA

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I. Lyman Stone wrote an article Why Effective Altruism Is Bad. You know the story by now, let's start with the first argument: The only cities where ...

Links for May 2024

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

A Theoretical "Case Against Education"

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's been renewed debate around Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education recently, so I want to discuss one way I think about this question. Educa...

What Is Going On In IFS?

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In my book review of The Others Within Us, I wrote: [An Internal Family Systems session] isn't supposed to be just the therapist walking you through ...

Book Review: The Others Within Us

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Internal Family Systems, the hot new psychotherapy, has a secret. "Hot new psychotherapy" might sound dismissive. It's not. There's always got to be o...

Choose Book Review Finalists 2024

02 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's time to narrow the 150 entries in the Book Review Contest to about a dozen finalists. I can't read 150 reviews alone, so I need your help. You'll...

Profile: The Far Out Initiative

02 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Suffering is part of the human condition, except when it isn't. I met a man at an ACX meetup once who claimed he has never felt anxiety, not even the ...

Mantic Monday 5/13/24

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Manifold pivot || Lab leak hindcasting || CFTC extra-double-bans prediction markets  https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-51324

Highlights From The Comments On Hanson And Health Care

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Most recent post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Comments From Robin 2: Comments About/From Goldin et al 3: Comments From The Rest Of You Yokels https...

The Emotional Support Animal Racket

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

If you're from a country that doesn't have emotional support animals, here's how it works. Sometimes places ban or restrict animals. For example, an a...

Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

California's state senate is considering SB1047, a bill to regulate AI. Since OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta are all in California, this would...

Highlights From The Comments On "The Origin Of Woke"

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original post here. Table Of Contents: 1: Response From The Author 2: Attempted Fact Checks 3: People With Personal Experience At Their Workplace 4: P...

Book Review: The Origins Of Woke

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Origins Of Woke, by Richard Hanania, has an ambitious thesis. And it argues for an ambitious thesis. But the thesis it has isn't the one it argues...

Response to Hanson On Health Care

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Robin Hanson replied here to my original post challenging him on health care here. On Straw-Manning Robin thinks I'm straw-manning him. He says: http...

Survey Results: PMS Symptoms

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In November 2022, Aella posted this Twitter poll: 19% of women without pre-menstrual symptoms believed in the supernatural, compared to 39% of women w...

Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the most common arguments against AI safety is: Here's an example of a time someone was worried about something, but it didn't happen. Therefo...

Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Robin Hanson of Overcoming Bias more or less believes medicine doesn't work [EDIT: see his response here, where he says this is an inaccurate summary ...

Ye Olde Bay Area House Party

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] When that April with his sunlight fierce The rainy winter of the coast doth pierce And filleth every spirit with...

Updates on Lumina Probiotic

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that I wrote about in December, is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 ...

Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Original post here. Table of contents below. I want to especially highlight three things. First, Saar wrote a response to my post (and to zoonosis arg...

Links For April 2024

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links ...

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than ...

Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he's been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias. His method - ...

In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

05 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's every blogger's curse to return to the same arguments again and again. Matt Yglesias has to keep writing "maybe we should do popular things inste...

The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I have data from two big Internet surveys, Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023. Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reporte...