More Art Than Science
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's at the Letters for Monday, June 29th, 2026. Arden Zwelling here with Ben Nicholson-Smith, and I'm a producer. Kristen Ryan, thanks so much for listening. Ben, the Blue Jays are six games under .500. They're riding their longest losing streak of the season. They were just swept in four games at home to a team that they are directly competing with.
in the wildcard race and the blue jays did not lead for a single inning in that series things are not going well how are you feeling about just the big picture state of the team right now not great not great at all um and i this is it's a really interesting time for this team because they are still in it and i don't want to lose sight of that and i don't want to portray this as being over by any stretch, because it's not. They're in it. They've got a chance. But yeah, you get swept at home by the Texas Rangers. It's not good. These are real missed opportunities. The offense isn't clicking. They have questions on the pitching side, and their just overall position, when you look at their roster, how players are doing, when you look at their record relative to other teams, it's not a good position, especially when you consider the
The fact that they're the defending American League champions who came into this season with so much hope and a lot of talent on the roster, it's not a good position. I think everyone watching sees that and feels that. And so, yeah, it's a really interesting time to talk about this team.
I thought there was a really telling moment in Sunday's game. It's the eighth inning and George Springer reaches first base.
How dire are the Blue Jays’ recent results and what’s the big-picture state of the team?
It's like the first time the Blue Jays have even had like a modicum of momentum or energy in the game. Nathan Lucas is coming up and Springer gets the first and he like looks into the dugout and he's like yelling at the dugout and like encouraging them like, and putting up the number two. And that to me said that George Springer was yelling into the dugout like, hey, let's wake up. We're only down by two. We're not down by 10. Why are we playing lifelessly? Like we're down by 10. Like this game is already over. We're only down by two. We can easily come back in this. And I thought that was like a microcosm for the season as a whole. Because to your point, I think right now with just the Blue Jays, with the way that they've played throughout this homestand so far in which they're one in six, it feels like they're out of it and it's over and it's a disaster.
And they're like 10 games back of a playoff spot. But they're not 10 games back with a playoff spot. They're two and a half games back of a playoff spot. The American League is so weak this year that the Blue Jays can lose six consecutively and just go through the most miserable stretch of their season and still be two and a half games back with 78 to play. So I felt like that moment with George Springer kind of summed up where the Blue Jays are at right now in the season and They're playing like they're down 10, but they were only down two. And it feels like they're out of this by 10, but they're really only out of it by two and a half.
Yeah, that's a great example of how things have been going for them and an interesting moment in that game. I think when you look at the odds, when you look at the numbers right now, their playoff odds, according to fan graphs, 27%, 27.5% to make the playoffs as we record this on June 29th. So, I mean, that's a chance. That's something that happens. If you were to play this season out 100 times, they would make the playoffs 27 or 28 times. So it's on the table. This is not some remote possibility. At the same time, it's dropped a lot in the course of even those four days. And we know these things swing quickly, but... Now, OK, if the Jays sweep the Mets, great. You sweep the Mets. Now maybe you're tied for the wildcard spot in the American League again.
You're not 2.5 games behind. You make some real gains. You're tied. On the other hand, you lose the series or you're swept by the Mets. Now you're really vulnerable because you go from 2.5 back to being 4.5 back.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:07–2:00
2
How dire are the Blue Jays’ recent results and what’s the big-picture state of the team?
2:00–19:50
3
How close are the Blue Jays to the playoffs and what do current odds (June 29) imply?
19:50–34:47
4
What decision paths exist for the Blue Jays over the next five weeks before the trade deadline?
34:47–1:03:46