Ben Cowen Says You Have Permission to be Bullish
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Why did Ben Cowen admit his Bitcoin Q4 call was wrong?
I gotta be honest, like I I'm very confused. And I this is the thing though, David. I mean, you you've you've probably gone through this before where like the market just doesn't make sense to sometimes. Like, you know, like it it like it's like why is you know, last cycle, why was Ethereum trading, you know, so low when Bitcoin was so high? Right? Like why there's so many different times in in you know markets where it doesn't make sense. Markets don't have to make sense, you know? I mean, maybe maybe crypto was pricing all this stuff in before it happened.
Bankless Nation, it is an interesting time in the market. There appears to be an inflection point with the sentiment, the bullishness around the market. And so we're bringing back on Ben Cowan from the Cryptoverse. Ben, welcome back to Bankless. Thanks for having me. Pleasure to be here as always. Ben, you recently had to put out a video uh boldly stating I was wrong. You were calling for a Q4 flush. I think that was pretty consensus for a while. Uh a Q4 flush around the time of the midterm. Which matched previous cycles. As I understand it, you were basically calling for a repeat of the standard four-year cycle, uh, which that's where like the Q4 bottoming happened. You're also pointing to the midterms rather than seemingly a Q2 bottom, which is what we are so far experiencing.
What gives you the conviction now that you were wrong then? Like why w what made you actually wave the flag and say, like, okay, I was actually wrong?
Well, I mean, the the post about me being wrong was not about sort of whatever happens in Q four, because who knows what happens in Q four, right? Like we don't know yet. Um, it was more so like I didn't think we would take out the May high, right? Because in in all prior bear markets, once we've crossed the 50 week moving average, once we put in a higher high, the bear market was always over. And so like I didn't really give the the idea. Of taking up the May high, a lot of weight. And so I, you know, the the 57K that Bitcoin hit on July 1st, I thought that was a local low because in 2018 we kind of bottomed at 5,700 right around the same time. It seemed like that would be the summer low. And then, you know, I expected a rally in July.
And that was kind of where I first felt like. I was kind of like getting off because we didn't really have a rally in July. We kind of just stayed at 60K. And then so by the time August came around, I was more so in the camp that we would go ahead and start kind of trending down into a low. But instead, we started, we got the rally I thought we would get in July. We got it in August, right? And so that was kind of how I first got on. The wrong side, I think, of of of that. From here, I mean, you know, I don't really know what's going to happen in Q4. A lot of it, I guess, depends on if we get this, you know, if if Bitcoin can continue to accept above the range highs. Um, if it does not, like if we fade back down, we could still see Q4 weakness, but I don't like I wouldn't necessarily be in the camp that it has to be like a lower low, right?
Like it could be a it could be a higher low. For all we know, especially given the fact that we've printed a higher high. So I I think that that's kind of where I am right now. And the the reason I admitted I was wrong was just because I think it's important to do that when when you are wrong. And you know, if I spend two months saying I don't think we're gonna take off the May high and then we take it out, right? I mean, like, where am I to hide? So uh yeah, I think that was important, and we'll see what we'll see what Q4 has in store.
Just to just to emphasize what um what you're saying, really it was about the middle of the year, the the time frame around now, about being bullish. Like you go onto crypto twitter, everyone's very, very bullish and excited. There's a lot of momentum, there's a lot of uh happiness in in the market. And that's that's the part where you weren't expecting where sure, even in bear markets we can go up thirty percent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Ben Cowen admit his Bitcoin Q4 call was wrong?
0:00–7:50
2
Does the current bear market differ from the 2022 downturn?
7:50–17:22
3
Is the four‑year Bitcoin cycle still intact?
17:22–25:20
4
What does the early low mean for the next bull market?
25:20–32:46
5
How do monetary policy and global liquidity differ for crypto?
32:46–40:29
6
Can Bitcoin catch up to equity market performance?
40:29–45:44
7
Will retail investors finally return to crypto?
45:44–51:41
8
Why is Bitcoin defying the expected macro‑driven downturn?
51:41–57:12
Speakers
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