Iran Says US Deal Not Imminent But Consensus Reached, More
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Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made.
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On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Iran says it has reached a consensus with America on many issues, but no deal is imminent. That comes after US officials had said they were closing in on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking before Iran had commented, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was optimistic.
We've made some progress over the last 48 hours working with our partners in the Gulf region on an outline that could ultimately, if it succeeds, leave us not just with a completely open straits, and I mean open straits without tolls, and with addressing some of the key things that underpin what has been Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions in the past.
Rubio added that a deal is President Trump's preference, but only if it were a good deal. Despite the optimism from US sources, Iran's Tasnim news agency says an agreement is far from reality. Bloomberg's Kevin Whitelaw says there's concern over how the US and Iran seem to be describing this deal differently.
What we're really talking about isn't a deal deal, it is a path to a deal. And so it would be some sort of an extended ceasefire or pause where the Strait of Hormuz would be opened up in some fashion. I think that's probably realistically the best thing that anyone can expect at this point with most of the actual negotiations over the highly enriched uranium, et cetera, to come later. But, you know, Iran has basically said they want sanctions relief. They want some of their assets unfrozen. And if Trump agrees to do some of that just to get this interim deal, he's really giving up a fair amount of his leverage.
Kevin Whitelaw there. Oil prices dropped on the news, with Brent set for the lowest close in more than a month. The price of the global benchmark fell more than 5%, taking it to under $100 a barrel. President Trump's chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, says any deal will open up the path to an interest rate cut.
Again, we expect energy prices as soon as there's a deal to plummet. And when that happens, then there'll be a lot of room for the Fed to do the right thing at lower rates.
Kevin Hassett speaking over the weekend to Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures. However, Forbis Mazar's chief economist, George Lagarias, thinks that outcome is unlikely.
I would hate to rain on anybody's parade right now, but the reality is that breakeven markets were not really pricing in very high inflation, maybe 3%, 3.5% until the end of the year. So we were seeing an upside in bonds, and especially long term, but they were not really pricing in a significant continuation of Hormuz. So where markets were is roughly where we are right now.
Lagaria has added he thinks central banks around the world are increasingly eyeing hikes. The European Central Bank is set to lift its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month. That's according to the central bank's president, Christine Lagarde, who told an Italian talk show an earlier prediction of 2.6% will probably be revised. Economists and investors now predict a quarter point rate hike at the ECB's next June meeting.
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