JTP: Who’s Grabbing the 3rd AL Wild Card Spot?
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What are the Blue Jays’ current playoff odds and standing in the AL wild‑card race?
Not a perfect weekend for the Toronto Blue Jays, but a pretty productive one. They win a series against the Kansas City Royals. They dropped the Sunday game, but On Friday they moved to five hundred. On Saturday, they temporarily moved into a wildcard spot. And here on Monday morning, they are one game out of a playoff spot with playoff odds anywhere between 35 and 45%, depending on which projection system you like to use. The uh important thing here, one game back of the Guardians with no other teams to jump. That's been the biggest hurdle to thinking through the Blue Jays playoff odds over the last couple of weeks is that not only were you X number of games out, you had six teams to jump, the Blue Jays have jumped all of those teams.
Teams, except for the Cleveland Guardians. Also notable as we look at the standings here. The two teams closest, most close behind them are the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Texas Rangers, who they will not hold the tiebreaker against, but still have three games against, and the Baltimore Orioles, who they have six games left against. So nine of these final eighteen are against the two teams that are right on your tail. You have taken care of the Guardians as best you could and made sure you have that tiebreaker. Unfortunately, the Detroit Tigers will not see heaven after the weekend that they had. They were walked off three times by the Guardians on the weekend. So they played four games in three days because they had a makeup game doubleheader.
And get this, the Tigers lost that series three games to one. Without Trailing. That's it with you. Three of those games. They lost without trailing. They didn't trail until the final uh at bat of the game. Uh pretty crazy stuff. Uh timely stuff from the Guardian side. That was enough to keep them ahead of the Blue Jays by a game here. Elsewhere around baseball, the Orioles dropped. The entirety of a four-game set to Boston. So not mathematically out of it. And again, six games left between those two teams, but that gives a little bit of breathing room for Cleveland as far as Baltimore goes. Texas split a four-game set with Tampa Bay. So they're two games back of Cleveland and a game back of the Blue Jays here.
Uh the White Sox took two or three against the Twins. So the Twins kind of still on the periphery of that race, four and a half games out. Uh, but the White Sox doing a good job there to make sure that's one fewer team in the American League Central that can catch them. And then the Mariners and Tigers, if you still want to consider them, they are six and seven and a half games out. Uh clocks run out on the Tigers. I'm not giving any any potential for a seven and a half game comeback with eighteen games to go. The Mariners, for all we've talked about, their pitching have the worst ERA in baseball over the last forty games. Um so while mathematically they have a bit Better of a path and they could still technically catch uh Houston and their division as well.
Uh time's just about up for Seattle. So all that said, uh things out of town outside of Cleveland went somewhat the Jays way. Today we'll start a very big Cleveland at Baltimore series where you're in a weird spot where you actually you kind of want Baltimore to take care of business so you can catch Cleveland, but you maybe don't want to sweep because you don't want Baltimore too too much. on your tail ahead of those six games together. Uh Minnesota will be at Detroit and then Toronto, of course, will be at the athletics. It's a ten oh five start tonight, a nine forty start tomorrow, and then a three oh five Wednesday start. And not many questions for the Blue Jays in the first two. Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano will go.
They'll go opposite Jacob Lopez and Jack Perkins. Wednesday is a TBD both sides. The TBDs for the Blue Jays cast into even wider question mark yesterday after Spencer Araghetti was once again ineffective. Um, can you operate with two pseudo bullpen days? There are only 18 games left. You have three off days, four of those two.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the Blue Jays’ current playoff odds and standing in the AL wild‑card race?
0:18–12:47
2
How did Andy McCullough assess the Angels’ new ownership and its impact on the team?
12:47–27:39
3
What insights did Craig Goldstein share about the race for the third AL wild‑card spot?
27:39–41:51
4
How is Shohei Ohtani’s injury situation affecting the Dodgers and the wild‑card picture?
41:51–56:10
5
What does Chris Carey say about the Athletics’ strengths, weaknesses, and outlook for the final stretch?
56:10–1:08:48
6
Which minor‑league prospects (e.g., Zach Geloff, Denzel Clark) could influence the Blue Jays and A’s next season?
1:08:48–1:21:05
7
How are the Jays managing their bullpen and the roles of Spencer Arrighetti, Dylan Cease, and Jose Soriano?
1:21:05–1:35:29
8
What are the hosts’ final thoughts on the season’s playoff picture and upcoming fantasy decisions?
1:35:29–1:39:36
Speakers
5 identifiedMore from Blue Jays Talk
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