Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
2/28/26: IRAN WAR: Trump RISKS IT ALL For Israel
28 Feb 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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All right, guys, we're very lucky to be joined this morning for instant analysis from Dr. Trita Parsi, who, of course, is alongside a great friend of the show. He is with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. So great to see you, sir.
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Chapter 2: What are the implications of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran?
So I think what we can say is that clearly there is some missing factors that would explain how we got to this point. Could Epstein be one of them? Absolutely. You cannot rule it out. And you cannot also assertively or conclusively say that it was the factor.
But to completely dismiss the idea that this has something to do with it, I think would be problematic because there's no evidence to exclude it. There's also no smoking gun evidence at this point that says this is the reason why this is happening.
Let me ask you about a few conflicting reports that we're getting, understanding that as war unfolds, there's all sorts of misinformation and lies and propaganda and things to sort through. So the Israelis are claiming that they believe they successfully assassinated Ayatollah Khamenei. On the other hand, the Iranians are saying he's going to come out shortly and make a speech. So first...
Let's just talk about the possibility that he certainly was targeted, the possibility that he could have been assassinated. How significant do you believe that would be and what would be some of the fallout from that targeting?
undoubtedly would be tremendously significant if he were to be assassinated. What would follow, however, is actually a little bit more difficult to predict.
First of all, there's a significant risk that the administration is well aware of that this will actually put a fire throughout the region because there are Shia populations in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Saudi, in Bahrain, in the UAE, in Pakistan, who view Khamenei as a religious figure and as a religious leader, because he is a grand ayatollah or a marjah-e-tarnit.
So this is something that I know in the summer they were very concerned about, whether they have now completely dismissed that or not remains to be seen. The Israeli argument has been that it is necessary to kill him to essentially kill an era, an era of the Islamic Republic. It's symbolic in its value. Now, what would follow?
I would presume that the Iranians already have decided the secession at this point. In fact, they've declared that they decided the secession for several key posts about five lines down. And that would be very odd if they were to do that, but not having done that for the Supreme Leader.
Could it erupt into protests on the streets in the sense that some people would think that this is an opportunity that absolutely also could happen? What we have seen so far, and I think this is an important point to keep in mind, We've not seen any such protests. I spoke to someone in Tehran just before this show.
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Chapter 3: How does Trump's leadership influence U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East?
So I think that in itself has had and will have a psychological impact on what the fallout will be if you start seeing that key people within the state apparatus are killed. The other thing that I think is also very important to keep in mind here is that by all accounts that I've spoken to, the Supreme Leader is seen by many as an obstacle inside of Iran.
For those who actually want to strike back much harder, who believe that the Iranians committed a mistake by responding so politely to previous attacks, to Israeli attacks, waited for too long in this strategy called strategic patience, They view Khamenei as an obstacle for what they would want to have done, which is strike back harder or even go for a nuclear weapon.
And for those who wanted to have a much more aggressive diplomatic approach, which would have included direct negotiations with Trump himself, which I think could have made a difference in all of this if it had been done earlier, they also see him as an obstacle because he's been too adamant about not taking that step.
If he is taken out and there's a different leader taking power or if it's a council, etc., it also means that some of those questions will be revisited and Iran may go in a very different direction, one that perhaps is not at all to the liking of the United States.
I saw you engaging online with some potential reports that jailed dissidents, jailed dissident leaders in Iran had also been targeted. You know, what do you make of those potential reports? And what can we say, you know, based on, again, early reporting about what has been hit and what was ultimately targeted about what the goals of this war actually are from the U.S.
and Israeli perspective based on where they are attempting to strike?
I'm really trying to wrap my head around that. We do know, for instance, that they did try to target the house, the empty house of the former president Ahmadinejad. He was not there and they did not hit that house. They hit a house about two blocks or two houses down the street.
But they also appear to have tried to hit the house that the dissident politician Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was the person who won the elections in 2009 and would have been president, who was a reformist, had it not been for the election fraud in which Ahmadinejad took power again. He's been in house arrest now since 2009 for about 17 years. That house was also targeted.
It seems to be an effort to eliminate this. all elements of this system, whether they are dissidents, whether they're reformists, whether they're in power right now.
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Chapter 4: What are the potential consequences of regime change in Iran?
Instead, we're seeing that he's not even using the word international law. At the first instance in which his new little thesis would have been tested, he utterly, utterly failed.
And so did the vast majority of European leaders, save the exception of Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, and Spain, the same group who incidentally also stood firmly on the side of international law when it came to the genocide in Gaza. Now, when it comes to the regional states, This is part of the reason why they were so against this in the first place.
They knew that they would be victimized in this. They have to, of course, from their standpoint, come up with very, very strong condemnations. These are at the end of the day attacks on their soil. And the Iranian response is, this is not meant to attack you. This is meant to attack bases that are being used directly or indirectly to attack our soil.
end result of all of this may very well end up being that rather than having American bases on your soul providing you with security, it actually may end up becoming the opposite, that the very principle is negated, that you're actually at a greater risk of being attacked precisely because you have these bases on your soul.
And very importantly, in this case, as well as the case of the past summer, the United States vacated all of those bases. before it attacked. Both the personnel have been moved out and most of the equipment have been moved out, which then raises the question, what's the point of these bases?
If they were supposed to defend these regions, these states against Iran, and now when you're having a war, you're actually vacating them. What's in it for these states?
Yeah. Well, finally, you know, it's hard to see what the off ramp could be for the U.S. given that Trump just came out and said, hey, we're aiming for regime change here. And anything short of that, you know, based on his own metric of success would be would be a failure. However, there are, again, some reports out that. They reached out, the U.S.
reached out to Iran looking for already some sort of a negotiated ceasefire. There are also reports that the Iranians have reached out and offered some sort of concessions in exchange for a ceasefire. I have no idea whether either of those reports are accurate at this point.
But my question for you is, you know, do you see some potential near-term off-ramp that could, you know, keep this, it's already a regional war, but keep it from escalating into an even broader and lengthier disaster?
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Chapter 5: How might Iranian counterattacks affect regional stability?
Evidence has been made to fit. The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapsed.
What if the truth was disguised by a story we chose to believe? Oh my God, I think she might be innocent. Listen to Doubt, The Case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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