Trump confirms deal with Tehran
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The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance. to the programme so Matt we've been told there's going to be a formal signing of this deal in Switzerland on Friday and both sides are going to want to claim this as a win do you have a sense of what compromises were reached to get us to this point?
Well, I think first of all, I'd like to quote a seasoned Iran observer, Ali Vaez, who said, this stops the bleeding, but it doesn't heal the wound. And I think it's very important to understand that this is a memorandum of understanding. It is not a full peace deal. It is the starter course for the main course, which is still to come. it only extends the ceasefire by 60 days although that might well trickle into longer time the iranians would have every interest in trying to spin this out and as perhaps the americans as well and then within the compromise agreement you have the iranians will not pursue a nuclear weapon uh they uh will open the strait of hormuz without charging ships at all in return they will get a gradual release of funds which have been frozen by the west
which they desperately need for their economy so there are incentives built in on both sides but the trust between both sides has been eroded by this war the iranians have realized that they have an enormous amount of leverage over the world trade uh through the strait of our moves they have tasted that and they've rather liked it and remember that inside iran even though the americans are saying that this is you know a massive concession from the iranians and that they've won this war inside iran the government the regime the rump regime is battling voices from the hard line as we're saying this is outright capitulation we should never agree to any of this we should carry on charging uh ships in the state of hormuz and holding the world economy in a stranglehold so it it it's better than it was
But ultimately, we're kind of back to where we were in 2015 with the Obama agreement. They have bombed an awful lot and killed quite a few people in order to get back to a status quo that we had before.
Lise, to bring you in there, I mean, there are some analysts this morning who say the deal, as they understand it, is actually going further than was expected. Do you see this agreement as a real genuine breakthrough or, as Matt is saying, primarily a ceasefire that is just postponing the hardest decisions?
Well, I'll pick up on the word that you use, see. We don't see the agreement yet. It's not been released. We don't know the details. And both sides are now announcing a version of the deal which suits their interests, which underlines how much they won in this deal. Matt mentions the issue of money. Iran has made it absolutely clear, it's been one of its red lines in these negotiations, that it wants money upfront. It wants some of the billions of dollars as part of what's said to be $100 billion in frozen assets held in banks and reserves around the world. That's Iran's money, the stock of $12 billion. Some of that is from oil sales made in years past. The United States is using this expression, no cash.
It won't be American cash. It would probably be a line of credit. But that has not been confirmed.
What compromises were made in the US-Iran peace deal?
And I agree with Matt. It would be wrong to call this a peace deal. This is not about peace. This is an effort to end a war. to end a hot war which has had wide-ranging repercussions right around the world. It's about opening the Strait of Hormuz. And although one of the details which has emerged is that Iran will not charge tolls in the strategic waterway for a certain period of time, for about a month, We already are hearing a report this morning that Iran and neighboring Oman, which controls the other side of that strait, are now discussing a new order, a new system. call it services, call it what you want. President Trump said there won't be tolls, but Iran is making it clear there will be no return to the status quo.
The Strait of Hormuz is a gift of geography to Iran, but now it is a gift of this war as well.
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