AM 25 Sep 26: ASX set to fall, oil prices back in focus
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What’s the overall market outlook for Australia this morning?
A listener production.
Wall Streets steady while oil prices and bond yields climb. The ASX poised to open modestly lower. And why diamond prices have fallen to their lowest levels this century. Good morning, I'm James Gruber. And I'm Gillian Bowen. It's Friday, the 25th of September, and this is the morning edition of the Comsec Market Update.
Okay, let's get straight into it. But I will say it has been great to hear James Tau or JT, should I say, on the podcast with you this week. He will be here next week, too, of course, and beyond. Now, global oil prices have been volatile again overnight. And James, shortly you're gonna take us through that and a development in bond yields that we haven't seen in more than 20 years.
How did the latest job data and unemployment rate affect the ASX?
But first, let's focus on Australia. So the ASX 200 closed lower yesterday. Dropping 0.7%. Yesterday morning, we got an update on unemployment. And look, the result was mixed. Bureau of Statistics data shows the economy created 39,500 new jobs in August, but the unemployment rate also climbed to 4.6, slightly above forecast, because there was a higher proportion of people looking for a job over the reporting period.
Yeah, so the jobless rate is now at a five-year high. But look, inflation pressures remain, so markets are still factoring in a more than 90% chance of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank next Tuesday afternoon. The RBA has raised interest rates three times this year already to 4.35%. And you can get some more analysis on this topic from Stephen Daglian, who's done a short video for our social. There's a link in the episode description. This morning the Aussie share market appears to be heading for a lower open.
Why are investors betting on a Reserve Bank rate hike next week?
Index futures were down 0.3% shortly after six AM this morning.
So let's move on to commodities then because global oil prices remain above uh 100 US dollars a barrel and that's not helping inflation concerns as we know. So James, what's the latest?
So, Gil, global oil prices fell after a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia revived supply disruption fears. That was despite reports surfacing that the US and Iran are discussing reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brinkrete futures settled 3.4% lower at $106.60 US dollars a barrel. Base metal prices were mixed, copper futures rose. 0.6%, as supply worries at major Chilean mines offset a stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, aluminium futures slipped 0.2%. Gold futures hit a one-week low as a rise in oil prices and a hawkish shift in rhetoric by the U.S. Federal Reserve anchored expectations of higher interest rates. The futures were down 0.5% at 4,200.
What’s driving the recent moves in global oil and commodity prices?
Meantime, Ion or futures dropped 0.1% to settle at 97.14 US dollars a ton.
So let's have a look at currencies. They were lower against the US dollar. One Australian dollar is buying 70.13 US cents. The euro is worth 1.1376 US dollars, while one US dollar is buying 158.89 Japanese yen. Okay, let's get a wrap of what's happened overseas with markets. So the Dow Jones Index finished down 0.3%. The SP 500 and the Nasdaq were both flat. Now, one thing that has been unfolding, the US President has welcomed the Chinese president to the White House for a state summit. It's Xi Jinping's first visit to Washington in more than a decade, but analysts aren't expecting any major
So US share markets, turning to them, were muted as escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices and treasury yields, as we mentioned, while investors monitored that US-China summit. Yemen's Houtis said they attacked Saudi military bases in Jazan days after US and Iranian leaders exchanged barbs at the UN General Assembly.
How are US Treasury yields and the US‑China summit influencing markets?
The development stoked inflation fears, with the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2004. Seven of the 11 sectors on the benchmark SP 500 index traded lower, while communication services led the gains. Technology stocks fell, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft slipping between 0.4% and 1.3%. Oracle dropped 3.5% after a report said it sent a force majeure notice to protect itself from potential cost increases relating to a large data center project in New Mexico.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What’s the overall market outlook for Australia this morning?
0:02–0:50
2
How did the latest job data and unemployment rate affect the ASX?
0:50–1:52
3
Why are investors betting on a Reserve Bank rate hike next week?
1:52–3:01
4
What’s driving the recent moves in global oil and commodity prices?
3:01–4:14
5
How are US Treasury yields and the US‑China summit influencing markets?
4:14–5:54
6
What’s causing European markets to slip and which sectors are leading?
5:54–7:16
7
Why have natural diamond prices fallen to century‑low levels?
7:16–8:58
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from CommSec Market Update
PM 24 Sep 26: ASX reacts to higher unemployment
AM 24 Sep 26: Wall Street tumbles as bond yields surge
PM 23 Sep 26: Market holds breath ahead of jobs data
AM 23 Sep 26: Nasdaq hits fresh record as oil drops below $100
PM 22 Sep 26: Lithium surge steals market spotlight
AM 22 Sep 26: Wall Street rallies as oil prices plunge