Business, consumer lull; biggest is not best in CEO pay; SpaceX share price tumbles
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use. Today, business and consumer sentiment improves, but not enough to spur the economy. The US continues to strike Iran, as experts say President Donald Trump's 20% toll for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is unworkable. And SpaceX's soaring start to life as a listed stock malfunctions, with its share price tumbling. Plus, the Australian Signals Directorate warns about state-sponsored hacking out of Russia. And when it comes to CEO pay on the ASX, being big or even better doesn't mean you will earn the most. It is Wednesday, the 15th of July, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Halema. Good morning, Michael. Sean, the main story this morning, business and consumer sentiment has improved over the past month, although both remain weak.
How has business and consumer sentiment changed in June and does it signal economic recovery?
The war in the Middle East and higher interest rates have hit sentiment across the economy. Business confidence has improved for the third consecutive month, but remains below long-term averages as trading conditions showed little change. National Australia Bank's monthly business survey showed confidence rose nine points during June. It is now almost back to pre-war levels. However, it is still below the long-run average.
Business conditions were unchanged at three index points with gains in profitability offset by a decline in employment and broadly flat trading conditions. Confidence improved across most industries. That's good news. Retail manufacturing did particularly well. although it remains negative across all sectors on a trend basis. And Michael, the trend is your friend. National Australia Bank said easing in business conditions over recent months pointed to a slowdown in economic activity through the first half of 2026 and an easing somewhat of inflationary pressures.
Australian consumer sentiment improved over the past four weeks as these concerns that we've all shared, Sean, about fuel prices and interest rates and jobs, well, those concerns eased somewhat. But households... We're not exactly a positive bunch yet, are we? We still remain deeply, deeply pessimistic about the economy and spending outlook. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4% to 84 points over the past month, although it does remain in the bottom 10% of results in this survey's 50-year history.
We're not exactly bouncing here.
It's not particularly great, is it?
No. Westpac said the improvement reflects relief that worst-case scenarios around energy prices, around interest rates, around unemployment haven't materialised, with lower petrol prices providing support for household confidence. But consumers remain cautious on major purchases and the economic outlook. Of course, the Strait of Hormuz is central to that. Now, these surveys were taken before the latest incursions by both Iran and the US. So, I dare say they won't get much better, at least during this week. We do care about all this because when businesses aren't happy, they don't invest as much. Consumers, when they're not happy, they don't buy as much. That slows the economy. Now, normally, you think that's a bad thing.
It ain't necessarily a bad thing at the moment, though, because we know the Reserve Bank is trying to get control of inflation. It's lifting interest rates to slow the economy to do that. What we're seeing and what I like about these surveys, they are real time. It's real time information is that is kind of working. So we are seeing a slowing of the economy. And in some ways, the NAB survey suggests a bit of a slowing of inflation pressures. That's kind of what we want.
And it's interesting though, isn't it? Because I know that on the week ahead with Stephen Koukoulis on Monday, we were talking about the fact that, yeah, sure, consumer sentiment's been pretty miserable, but it hasn't actually slowed that much of household spending, for instance. But someone who takes an interesting kind of dive into all of this stuff is your guest today on Fear and Greed Q&A, coming up after the show.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:06–0:58
2
How has business and consumer sentiment changed in June and does it signal economic recovery?
0:58–5:24
3
What do NAB and Westpac surveys reveal about business conditions and inflation pressures?
5:24–11:05
4
Why are households still pessimistic despite improvements in consumer sentiment?
11:05–17:53
Speakers
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