Low inflation means rates on hold; CGT debate heats up; NASA’s plans for the moon
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use today.
What impact do lower inflation figures have on interest rates?
Lower than expected inflation figures means no interest rate hikes until August at the earliest, according to market economists. Banks, miners and tech companies argue against changes to the capital gains tax. And NASA outlines details of what it's going to do on the moon. Plus, Endeavour Group to offload most of its wineries. And Westpac fined $26 million for not adequately looking after its customers. It is Thursday, the 28th of May, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
What a show, Michael. What a show. Now, apologies first for yesterday. One of us, and it wasn't you, kind of forgot to press the schedule button when the show was going up. So people yesterday morning may have missed... Michael and I in totally our fault.
So we do apologize. We will make up for it today with a very good story about NASA and the moon. It makes it up for me.
Why are banks and tech companies opposing capital gains tax changes?
I'll enjoy that one. It's coming up a little bit later on, but a fair bit to get through first, Sean, the main story this morning. The consumer price index in April was lower than expected, with headline inflation falling thanks to the cut in fuel excise and the all-important underlying figure rising only slightly. The good news reduces the chances of a rate rise when the Reserve Bank meets next month. The six-month annualised measure of inflation is sitting around 3.25%, which is still, of course, above the RBA's preferred target band, which is 2% to 3%.
What are NASA's plans for its upcoming moon missions?
But it's not as high as the RBA had forecast.
It was a pretty good number. With the impact of fuel prices, still to feed through the economy, inflation is expected to rise. But the starting point, the amount of price pressure in the economy before the Middle East war sent oil prices skyrocketing,
What strategic moves is Endeavour Group making with its wineries?
appears to be lower than some expected. And that is good news. It gives the central bank time to consider the impact of higher fuel prices, the budget, how that's going to impact the economy, and just the general slowdown cost of living crisis that's going on before it has to make a call on rates.
What was Westpac fined for regarding customer hardship requests?
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday said that inflation would have risen to 4.7% rather than the 4.2% reading that we did see without the cut to the fuel excise. He said that the decision would take the sting out of inflation, but cautioned that inflation would continue to spread. Take us through it. Where are the main inflationary pressures that we're seeing at the moment?
Well, in April at least, they were in housing and transport.
How is the capital gains tax debate affecting innovation in Australia?
Housing in part reflects the end of federal and state government rebates. Transport would have been much higher, but for Victoria's free public transport during the month.
What challenges is KMD Brands facing in the current market?
The point is all these government rebates and discounts, it's pretty hard to get a run on exactly what's happening, particularly since this is a new series, the monthly inflation series. The ABS said that higher oil prices are beginning to hit the economy beyond the bowser. It noted significant increases in prices for postal services and for new dwelling construction. The last couple of big pieces of economic data, Michael, so yesterday's inflation figure and last week's jump in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. is likely to stop the Reserve Bank from lifting rates next month. Money markets are now ascribing less than a 10% chance of a rate rise. All the four major bank economists are forecasting that rates are on hold.
The meeting after that isn't until the 10th and 11th of August. So no rate hikes for a little while. I think we can be reasonably confident on that. Okay.
Yesterday, what happened with the local market? How did the ASX react to the inflation figures?
It bounced. I know you did the afternoon report yesterday, Michael. It wasn't quite incredible to see the S&P ASX 200. It fell on opening. The CPI figure comes in and then it just bang. Yeah, up it goes.
So you went for bang, I went for boing. I just think mine was more animated in my head, whereas yours is very kind of firm and powerful.
So I reckon from about, you know, 10.30 before the data came out through till the end of the day, the close of 8,718 points, it was probably up a percent in that period.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:06–0:09
2
What impact do lower inflation figures have on interest rates?
0:09–1:08
3
Why are banks and tech companies opposing capital gains tax changes?
1:08–1:46
4
What are NASA's plans for its upcoming moon missions?
1:46–2:12
5
What strategic moves is Endeavour Group making with its wineries?
2:12–2:32
6
What was Westpac fined for regarding customer hardship requests?
2:32–2:59
7
How is the capital gains tax debate affecting innovation in Australia?
2:59–3:08
8
What challenges is KMD Brands facing in the current market?
3:08–17:29
Speakers
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