Global power, rivalry, and A.I.; a preview of the U.S./China summit
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What is the overall context and purpose of the U.S./China summit?
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This is Fresh Air. I'm Terry Gross. Some combustible topics are likely to be addressed at tomorrow's summit between President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping, like controls on AI safety, the war in Iran, tariffs, the trade war, and China's export of rare earth metals and rare earth magnets. A subject sure to be on the minds of the Chinese and the Americans is the possibility of China invading Taiwan and whether the U.S. would arm and defend the island nation, possibly getting us into an armed conflict with China. Whether or not anything is resolved at the summit, what's said, how it's interpreted, and what's left unsaid will matter. Beijing is trying to take over the position the US has long held as the global leader, and they may be getting closer to achieving that goal.
To help us understand all this and set the stage for the summit, our guest is Rush Doshi, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the director of its China Strategy Initiative. He's the author of the book The Long Game, China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order. He's also an assistant professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. During the Biden administration, Doshi was the deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs at the National Security Council. In that capacity, he negotiated with his Chinese counterpart and helped arrange summits with China. We recorded our interview yesterday. Rush Doshi, welcome back to Fresh Air.
Thanks. It's great to be with you.
So Trump likes to say that President Xi likes him, that they get along. How do you think Xi would describe Trump?
Well, what's interesting is these two leaders have had dealings going back all the way to 2016, 2017, really, is when that starts. And I think President Xi has always seen President Trump as unpredictable and also solicitous at times. President Trump is quite prone to flattering President Xi just as he's prone to flattering Vladimir Putin. He has a tendency to flatter autocrats. So I think President Xi sees him as potentially dangerous in his unpredictability, but also manageable if President Xi is able to kind of appeal to his ego. And what we see between the two leaders now is a changed dynamic. You know, in the first term, President Trump felt very confident in pushing China. But at the same time, he always believed in stability in the relationship and wouldn't always push too far.
This time around, I think President Xi feels like he has the upper hand and President Trump feels like he has maybe a weaker hand than President Xi.
Why?
Well, the big reason why is because of what happened last year. President Trump took tariffs on China up above 140 percent, unprecedented, maybe even reckless. And in doing so, he actually pushed President Xi into a corner. And President Xi had to make a decision. Does he reach for the break glass tool that China has spent decades building? And that tool, of course, is its control over the rare earth minerals and magnets that go into every manufacturing supply chain in America. When President Xi reached for that tool and said, we make more than 90% of the world's supply and you're not going to get any of it, that was a gun to the head of U.S. manufacturing. Now, President Trump could have seen that coming.
Certainly, past presidents knew that that threat could always be deployed. But they didn't push China into a position of having to use the tool. And here's the thing. If President Xi thinks he has the advantage with that tool and President Trump thinks that President Xi has the advantage with that tool, then no matter what the reality is, perception becomes the reality.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the overall context and purpose of the U.S./China summit?
0:00–8:50
2
How does Rush Doshi describe the personal dynamic between President Trump and President Xi?
8:50–13:51
3
Why did Trump’s 140 % tariffs push China to use its rare‑earth “break‑glass” tool?
13:51–23:51
4
What U.S. economic and financial levers were left unused at the summit?
23:51–32:40
5
Can the United States and China reach a mutual AI‑safety agreement?
32:40–48:09
6
How does Taiwan’s semiconductor industry factor into the AI and security debate?
48:09–50:20
Speakers
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