Show notes
A year ago, Bob Thompson called commodities the trade of the decade. Since then, silver miners, energy stocks and commodity-focused funds have delivered massive gains. But with gold down sharply from its highs, oil rolling over and investors questioning whether the trade has become too crowded, is it time to take profits—or is this just a correction within a much bigger bull market?In this episode, Bob Thompson of Thompson Investment Partners explains why he still believes we're in the early innings of a long-term commodities supercycle despite the recent weakness. He walks through his famous "Mining Clock" framework, outlines where he believes we are in the commodity cycle, and explains why gold, silver, copper and oil all remain strong two years from now. He also shares why the real risk may be hiding in technology stocks, where he sees echoes of previous market bubbles and growing signs that the capex cycle is nearing a dangerous stage.In the Mailbag, Bob breaks down why he believes the recent collapse in oil prices is a short-term positioning event rather than the end of the energy bull market. He discusses physical gold and silver ETFs, explains how he identifies capitulation bottoms, and shares his outlook on several investor favourites including Lundin Gold (LUG) and Altius Minerals (ALS). He also discusses why management quality matters more than ever in the resource sector and where he sees the best opportunities emerging as sentiment deteriorates.Bob revisits last year's winning ideas, including the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR), the Dynamic Active Mining Opportunities ETF (DXMO), and the Ninepoint Energy Fund—all of which have delivered strong returns since his last appearance. He then unveils three new high-conviction ideas: the Fidelity Global Value Long Short ETF (FGLS), which he views as portfolio insurance against a potential tech unwind; Nutrien (NTR), a beaten-down agriculture leader he believes is positioned for the next commodity cycle; and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which offers exposure to one of the cheapest major commodity-producing markets in the world.Timestamps00:00 Trailer 02:10 Intro03:39 Bob Thompson returns to the podcast04:18 Did commodities move too fast?05:22 Why investors are still underallocated07:51 Gold’s pullback and what it means09:20 Why gold is falling now11:37 How to think about portfolio allocation13:24 What could signal a bottom in gold and silver16:33 What is the mining clock?18:43 Mining cycle stages: 4 o’clock to 6 o’clock21:03 Mining cycle stages: 7 o’clock to 8 o’clock22:57 Mining cycle stages: 11 o’clock to 12 o’clock24:33 The mining clock as a credit clock26:23 Time arbitrage and the two-year investing test28:11 Rapid fire: bullish or bearish in two years?28:50 Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF-MIX 30:53 ITM Mailbag: Oil prices, geopolitical premium, and the supply story37:26 Entry points for physical gold and silver39:11 Lundin Gold: why Bob likes it (LUG)43:06 Altius Minerals: royalty business strength (ALS)49:33 Bob’s Pro Picks: FGLS, NTR, EWZSponsorsFor over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more informationThe mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information on the Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF visit: https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/ Linkshttps://inthemoneypod.com/ https://instagram.com/inthemoneypodhttps://facebook.com/profile.php?id=61569721774740 https://twitter.com/inthemoneypod https://tiktok.com/@[email protected] The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. Hamilton ETFs Disclaimer This podcast is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. The information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice or considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell the mentioned securities.The index performance returns are for informational purposes only and are not indicative of the future returns of the ETF. The returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.Certain statements contained in this podcast may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking information may relate to a future outlook and anticipated distributions, events or results and may include statements regarding future financial performance. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend” or other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Actual results may vary from such forward-looking information. Hamilton ETFs undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or other such factors which affect this information, except as required by law.Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange traded funds (ETFs) managed by Hamilton ETFs. Please read the prospectus before investing. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.Source: S&P Global, Solactive AG, Hamilton ETFs. Data from November 18, 2004, to April 30, 2026.The Solactive Hamilton Mixed Asset Index (SOLHAMMA) vs. the S&P 500 Total Return Index with annual compounded total returns and the potential impact of 1.25x leveraged exposure to SOLHAMMA. This is discussed for informational purposes only and intended to demonstrate the historical impact of the indexes compound growth rate. It is not a projection of future index performance, nor does it reflect potential returns on investments in the ETF. Investors cannot directly invest in the index. All performance data assumes reinvestment of distributions and excludes management fees, transaction costs, and other expenses which would have impacted an investor’s returns. SOLHAMMA data prior to March 14, 2025, is hypothetical back-tested data using actual historical market data. Actual performance may have been different had the index been live during that period.The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) and associated data are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, its affiliates and/or their licensors and has been licensed for us...