Faith and Charity?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Thank you for downloading More or Less from the BBC. This is the version first broadcast on Radio 4. Here's Tim Harford. Hello and welcome to the last in this series of More or Less. You can insert your own statistical pun here. This week we put a famous probability puzzle, the birthday paradox, to the test on a World Cup stage. And we shine the spotlight on the business craze for big data.
There's this enormous mythology that somehow the larger the data, the closer it is to truth. And I think it's at that level of mythology that we need to be most careful and most critical.
But first, the BBC commissioned a poll recently and one set of figures got some humanists up in arms. Here are the numbers reported on Radio 4's Religious Affairs show Sunday.
Well, this Comres poll asked whether people had given to charity in the last month. And it actually found that 7 in 10 adults had done so. So overall, we are a generous nation. And then we asked whether people practiced a religion. And we defined that as whether you pray, read a holy book, attend a religious gathering once a month, and whether you'd given to charity in the last month. And we found that three quarters of people living in England who practice a religion have given to charity in the last month. And that compares to only two thirds who don't practice a religion.
The presenter, Edward Sturton, wanted to be clear about this.
Can you look at the differences thrown up in your poll and legitimately conclude on the negative side that if you're not religious you're less likely to give money to charity?
The pollsters tell us that it is a significant difference and it's entirely valid to say that you're less likely to give if you don't practice a religion.
Well, Pavan Dhaliwal from the British Humanist Association contacted more or less and asked us to take a look at the figures. Was the survey fair? Well, I've got Charlotte MacDonald here with me. Hello, Charlotte.
Hi. The poll was commissioned by the BBC English Regions Religion and Ethics Unit. Now, far be it from me to defend the BBC.
Oh, please don't defend the BBC, Charlotte. It's much more fun when we put the boots in.
Maybe, Tim, but it's fair to say that this was a large sample of over 2,600 people and the poll gave a lot of consideration to the way the questions were asked. In particular, instead of merely asking people to identify as religious, as we just heard, the question focused on regular religious practices.
But what about the way this was reported?
Well, first off, it must be noted that the poll was not reported in isolation. It was used as a starting point for various reports across BBC local radio about attitudes and opinions to charitable activity. The coverage of the poll findings was pretty carefully phrased. Others who reported the BBC poll were happier to jump to conclusions. Here's the Daily Telegraph's causal leap. Religion makes people more generous.
Well, correlation isn't causation, as we're always being told, but what's the alternative?
Does the BBC poll really show religious people give more often?
Generosity makes people more religious?
It's not unreasonable to suggest that religiosity is causing generosity, but it's speculation. There's another good explanation. Here's Kimberley Scharf, a professor of economics at Warwick University. She's an expert in charitable giving.
The evidence that you find is actually a correlation. It doesn't establish any kind of causal relationship between religion and charitable contributions. We know that social interactions are important, and we know that almost 60% of giving occurs in social situations. Could be the social situations that are actually driving these things. The social pressure, possibly, of being asked to give at the weekly collection might be the thing that's actually inducing these people to give to charity within the church.
So it's reasonable to say that the BBC has confirmed earlier research that religious people give more often. But it's more of a guess to say that religion is the cause of the generosity. In fact, the BBC survey also asked about social networks and those around you giving money.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:58
2
Does the BBC poll really show religious people give more often?
2:58–9:01
3
How did ComRes define 'practising a religion' and could question order bias responses?
9:01–16:37
4
Could social pressure or networks explain higher giving among religious people?
16:37–28:15