What Matters About Market History, and the Worldwide Bull Market
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What insights can we gain from market history?
what we can learn from market history and the worldwide bull market. That and more on this Saturday personal finance edition of Motley Fool Money.
This week I speak with Ryan Dietrich, the chief market strategist at Carson Group, and a consistent source of data about the market's past and what it could say about the future. But first, some news from this week. According to Callum Thomas of TopDownCharts, 80% of the 70 companies he tracks have stock markets that are up at least 20% off their 52-week lows. He writes that this indicator has rarely been above 50% over the past couple of decades, and a surge like this is usually a good sign. Previous spikes have happened in 2003, 2009, and 2020, which were all good times to be an investor. Looking more locally, a recent graphic from Bloomberg illustrates that the year-to-date rally in US stocks is the broadest ever, as there's a record number of individual stocks in the S&P 500 that are outperforming the index.
Why are so many stocks outperforming the S&P 500?
That said, not every stock is doing well, including some of the biggest tech-oriented names, which has resulted in lower valuations for those stocks. In fact, according to Matt Cermonaro of Ritholtz Wealth Management, the forward P.E. of the MAG-7 minus Tesla is now below the forward P.E. of the consumer staples sector, which has returned almost 15% so far this year.
How are current mortgage rates impacting homeownership?
Next up, mortgage rates are dropping. The current 30-year fixed rate is 6%, down around 80 basis points from a year ago and the lowest level since 2022. Lower rates might make homeownership more affordable for some buyers, especially as price growth is slowing. This past week, Standard & Poor's announced that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose an annualized 1.3% in December, down from 1.4% in November. In other home loan news, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published on Tuesday says that the total amount in home equity lines of credit, otherwise known as HELOCs, rose in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was the 15th consecutive quarterly increase. The total amount in HELOCs is now $434 billion, up 36% over the past four years.
According to Bankrate, the current average interest rate on a HELOC is 7.3%. And now the number of the week, which is 12.
What does the historical data say about market declines?
That is the number of calendar years that the S&P 500 has lost more than 10% since 1928, according to a report from Barry Gilbert of Carson Group. In other words, the market has been profitable or lost less than 10% in almost 88% of calendar years. There are four decades that didn't see any years of 10% plus declines, those being the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, and the 2010s. How much does that history matter?
Well, that's the topic of my next conversation when Motley Fool Money continues. Tulevaisuutta on mahdotonta ennustaa, mutta siihen voi varautua. Tutustu Haaga-Heliaan laajaan koulutustarjontaan ja valmistu tulevaisuuteen.
We at The Motley Fool believe that the stock market is the best path to long-term wealth, and we have the historical data to back it up. But how much does history matter in our ever-changing world and what past trends are likely to persist? Here to talk about that and much more is Ryan Dietrich, the chief market strategist at Carson Group, the co-host of the Facts vs. Feelings podcast, and one of my favorite sources of insightful or just fun stats about the market.
How relevant is historical market data in today's economy?
Ryan, welcome to Motley Fool Money.
Robert, thank you so much for having me. Obviously a big fan of you and then The Motley Fool. I mean, geez, like a lot of people, I started reading Motley Fool a long time ago when I got into this industry. So it's a real honor. You quote me all the time. So thank you for that. But it's an honor to get to talk to each other about how we see the world. So thank you again for having me.
Thank you for those kind words, and it's great to have you here. In your podcasts, your articles, your social media posts, you provide just a regular stream of facts about historical trends. With much of that data going back to 1950s, sometimes as far back as the 1920s, what do you say to someone who says, things are different today?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What insights can we gain from market history?
0:05–1:09
2
Why are so many stocks outperforming the S&P 500?
1:09–1:31
3
How are current mortgage rates impacting homeownership?
1:31–2:27
4
What does the historical data say about market declines?
2:27–3:49
5
How relevant is historical market data in today's economy?
3:49–4:39
6
What are the main drivers of long-term stock market gains?
4:39–5:26
7
How should investors interpret current market volatility?
5:26–6:06
8
What strategies should long-term investors consider?
6:06–21:28