Future plans

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NAB Morning Call 16 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 20 days ago
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What are China’s new consumption‑boosting policies and why do they matter?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
Less tariff talk over the weekend, so must have been a good few days for golf. But the real enthusiasm on Friday came from China, where supposedly today plans are going to be unveiled to grow domestic consumption. Is it all bluster? Is it a way of saying, look, we're not worried about US tariffs because we're not so reliant on exports? Or is there a pot of money and a set of policies that really will change their growth potential? It's Monday, it's the seventeenth of March. twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. So the US dollar fell a little on Friday, but it was fairly flat last week, down just 0.1% on the DXY over the week. Over that time, the Euro was up 0.4%. Uh year to date, though, the US dollar is down 4.4%.
Phil Dobbie 0:45
The Aussie finished Friday up uh just above 63.2 US cents. That's a 0.6% rise on the day, the strongest of the uh the majors of the day. US stocks finished Friday. In a strong position, the Nasdaq climbed 2.6% on the day. The SP was up 2.1%. Over the week, though, less encouraging, the Nasdaq actually fell 2.4%, even with that rise on Friday. It is down over 8% year to date as well. The ASX 200, meanwhile, on the home front, up half a percent on Friday, but down two percent across the week. The DAX up in Germany up one point nine percent on Friday to finish pretty much where it was the week before. Bond yields pushed higher in the US on Friday, up three basis points for 10 year Treasuries, up at 4.31%.
Phil Dobbie 1:29
That's only one basis point higher than it was at the end of the week before though. Aussie ten years finished at 4.42%, same deal, really just that one basis point if we look at it week on week. And oil Brent pushed back over seventy a barrel on Friday up one per cent to seventy point six US dollars a barrel. Gold.

How did Friday’s market moves (US dollar, Aussie, equities) reflect the latest economic data?

Phil Dobbie 1:47
Well that was up naught point three percent on Friday. It peaked at three thousand and seventeen, which is a new high. In fact it was the first time over three thousand per troy ounce over the last twelve months. It's up forty per cent. So for all the fragility and uncertainty, Friday was a day that perhaps sought to correct some of the goings on of the week before. So oil did push it back up a little bit, not much admittedly. Stocks were climbing when they had been falling, uh, but not enough to counter those recent falls. Uh so who knows what this week's going to bring? Bond's obviously relatively quiet really given all of the shenanigans. So here's Nabs Tapas Strickland in Sydney. So first of all, Tapas, let's uh look at some of the events from Friday.
Phil Dobbie 2:28
Uh no government shutdown. All Republicans bar one voted for the spending bill. The Democrats let it through. Donald Trump has Nash signed it up. up as law so the government can continue to function in the United States.
Tapas Strickland 2:40
Good morning, Phil. Uh yes, it was um much more positive night on Friday and one of the factors there you mentioned was the um passing of that stopgap funding bill. And really that news started to emerge in early Asia on Friday. And I think that was part of the reason why uh US equity futures uh were in the green. Uh or although most people were expecting it. The confirmation I guess just added to that positive sentiment. But overwhelmingly the two other factors Uh causing sentiment to be incrementally more positive on Friday was really some chatter in China about um a boost to consumption policies and also a possible PBOC triple R cut. Now that was the uh rumour on Friday, and uh indeed that seemed to be uh get uh or had some real substance behind it.
Tapas Strickland 3:26
So if you read the uh press uh this morning, you'll see a few articles out there.

Why is gold hitting record highs and what does that signal for investors?

Tapas Strickland 3:30
One of them Is by the South China Morning Post saying China unveils 30-point toolbox to lift consumption. Indeed, uh the State Council, China's cabinet met and uh they made a few announcements on Sunday, and there's a press conference going to be held on Monday, which is which is today. So uh oh overall it looks like uh China is unveiling uh more support for for household wealth, particularly stocks and property market, AI funding, childcare is in the works, all is China trust.

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