It was turnaround Tuesday
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How did the cease‑fire news in Jeddah spark a market turnaround on Tuesday?
Well, there's been a lot of market movement today, in fact in the last hour or so, and we can pin it all on the hope of a ceasefire for Ukraine. Zelensky has agreed to a US proposal. All they need to do is sell it to Russia, that's all. And market visitors have assumed that that's all gonna be good news. And the trade war with Canada. Well, it seemed like that was getting a little out of hand, but even that has wound back quite a bit today after ratcheting up quite a bit earlier. So a Day of hope and a big turnaround day on Tuesday. Right now it's Wednesday in Australia. Good morning. Well, maybe that turnaround has turned back down again, actually, because uh in the last hour or so things have changed again.
So another big fall in the US dollar. At least that's been consistent, down naught point six percent to one hundred three point three on the DXY. So equities in the United States, well they were down quite a bit of the session. The S P was down as much as one and a half percent not so long ago, really close to correction territory. That was the conversation. Then the ceasefire news. Broke and it re-entered the green. The Nasdaq moved up as much as 0.9% higher, having been down as much as 0.7%. That was all an hour from the close. Now, at the close, they are back down again. So 0.2% lower for the Nasdaq, 0.8% down for the SP, 1.1% lower for the Dow. So we were saying it was a turnaround because an hour ago it was quite the turnaround.
Around on that ceasefire news, but second thoughts perhaps. European shares didn't really get that rally.
What impact did the US‑Canada trade‑tariff dispute have on equities and currencies?
Uh markets had closed before the news, so a one point four percent drop in the Euro stocks fifty, one point three percent down for the DAX and one point two percent low for the FTSE one hundred. And on currencies, the euro is up naught point eight percent, the pound up naught point six percent, the Aussie well maybe it's been boosted a little bit in the last hour, it's up naught point four percent to sixty. three US cents. Bond yields generally pushed higher. Ten year Treasury is now up six basis points, up uh six in Germany, four in France, up three in the UK. But Canadian ten year yields, well they were down two basis points, but now up four basis points because there's been news there too. Yep, there's a lot going on.
Uh Aussie ten year yields yesterday they lost six basis points falling to four point three seven percent. It looks like on futures Uh it's regained those uh those that that lost yield. And oil is quite a bit higher as well this morning, not point eight percent higher for WTI and Brent. Brent, which is now edging towards seventy dollars a barrel. And Taylor Nugent joins me today from NAB in Melbourne. So this turnaround that we saw momentarily anyway in in equities, it's because there is hope of a peace deal, well at least a uh a month ceasefire uh that's been a agreed by the US and Ukraine uh and uh a joint statement has come out from US and uh you the Ukraine delegation that's in Jeddah. It's got to be agreed by the Russians, of course, and uh they uh have also agreed the US is going to return to providing intelligence sharing in the Ukraine Ukraine as in the interim as well.
So that's all good news and markets have responded to it.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. Uh yeah, interesting day in in US equity started a little bit higher after that sell off that we saw uh the prior day. Um and then, you know, some some news on on Trump continuing to be uh fairly assertive on on tariff policy and and trade against Canada, talking about doubling the the steel and annu aluminium tariffs that come in tonight on um on for for Canada, saw you know, risk sentiments. Sour, we had um stocks down almost one point five percent at at one point, but as you say, that has kind of turned around a bit on on the back of these headlines around uh the US uh agreeing to resume the intelligence uh sharing and the security aid for Ukraine that they'd paused and um Ukraine ready to accept the the US proposal for a a thirty day truce if it's simultaneously observed by by Russia and so
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How did the cease‑fire news in Jeddah spark a market turnaround on Tuesday?
0:02–1:33
2
What impact did the US‑Canada trade‑tariff dispute have on equities and currencies?
1:33–4:18
3
Why did US equity indices swing from red to green and back again before the close?
4:18–6:48
4
How did European shares and bond yields react to the late‑day US market moves?
6:48–8:53
5
What do the latest JOLTS and NFIB small‑business surveys reveal about the US labour market?
8:53–11:09
6
Why is the Australian dollar expected to stay weak amid Euro strength and tariff uncertainty?
11:09–13:33
7
How are US CPI expectations and the upcoming Bank of Canada rate cut influencing market sentiment?
13:33–15:43
8
What are the key take‑aways for investors from the mixed data and geopolitical developments discussed?
15:43–17:39