‘No preset course’ says Powell, as Fed waits longer
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Why is the Fed waiting and not guaranteeing a September rate cut?
The Fed is waiting, and even a September cut can't be guaranteed. Why? Well, obviously the inflation risk from tariffs is the big question mark. The Bank of Canada also holding and waiting. But will the RBA cut next time after yesterday's inflation numbers in Australia? And big moves in copper prices today will explain why. And before we all get focused on jobs data, there's some big earnings results today as well. I'll tell you when it rains it pours. And tomorrow is August. August the first tariff deadline day. It's Thursday, it's the thirty first of july twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar's climbed further today. It's at one percent at just above ninety-nine point eight on the DXY, gained half of that raise uh since the Fed and during the Jerome Powell press conference just now.
Uh the Aussie is paying the price, it's down one point one percent to about sixty four and a half US cents. The euro is down one point one percent, the pound naught point eight percent lower. Equities though, which were up have since fallen. Then they climbed slightly out of the red in some cases. So Not point two percent higher for the Nasdaq, but not point one percent lower for the S P and not point four percent lower for the Dow. Europe closed higher though, not point two percent up for the DAX, a bit more than that for the Eurostocks fifty, but flat for the FTSE one hundred. Ten year treasury yields are up five basis points today, but yields falling uh mostly in Europe down three basis points for ten year guilt yields, for example.
Aussie ten years finished down seven basis points yesterday. Day at four point two five percent. Now on futures back up five basis points to four point three, and oil still rising up one point seven percent for WTI and one percent for Brent, which is almost at seventy-three point five a barrel. And look at this copper down over nineteen percent today. We'll look at why that is.
Why did copper prices plunge over 19% after the new tariff announcement?
Here's Nab's tapas strickland. The Fed, first of all, though, they are on hold. Not a unanimous decision though. Uh Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted for cuts, didn't they? But uh the surprising thing is, I mean, not only are they not moving now, uh the expectation is they're not gonna move in September either.
Good morning Phil. Yes, I think that's the key takeaway there. And really the way the market took it at least, it certainly wasn't dovish and maybe even lent a little bit hawkish there. And actually, when you look at the market reaction, we'll get to the details of it in in a second. Markets have paired pricing uh for for rate cuts. So a September rate cut uh is now only forty eight percent priced, uh, from seventy percent priced on Tuesday. And when you look at N twenty twenty five, so Where cumulative rate cut pricing now sits, it's at thirty seven basis points from forty six basis points on Tuesday. So there has been a little bit of um pushing out in terms of uh r rate cut expectations and that really came on the back of uh Powell's press conference there.
And the press conference you'd have to say was probably a little bit more hawkish than you'd probably expect given that there were two dissenters to the on hold meeting. Um but the two key Yeah. Uh re uh the two key reasons is he uh made it quite clear that the committee had not made any decision about September, so it was keeping guidance pretty neutral there. Um then as well as that continue to say uh you don't see any weakening in the labour market, although they do see a bit of downside risk there. And importantly, and I think this is probably really what got the market's attention there, is uh what we've seen now is the very beginnings of whatever the effects turn out. To be on goods inflation.
So, some sense that we're maybe a little bit early in terms of trying to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation. And indeed, uh the company reporting season that has just uh been through, uh there's some reports from uh Procter and Gamble and from uh Adidas as well, really suggesting that uh they're waiting for the finalization of tariffs and trade deals before they started adjusting prices.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the Fed waiting and not guaranteeing a September rate cut?
0:01–1:45
2
Why did copper prices plunge over 19% after the new tariff announcement?
1:45–4:00
3
What new tariff rates are being announced for India and how might they impact markets?
4:00–6:13
4
Will the US economy's slowdown worsen after the recent drop in imports?
6:13–8:42
5
Why are there large stockpiles of copper causing price declines?
8:42–10:33
6
Why are the Bank of Canada and RBA considering rate cuts amid tariff uncertainty?
10:33–13:23
7
When is the Bank of Canada likely to consider its next rate hike?
13:23–15:37
8
Will the Bank of Japan maintain its policy hold despite global rate pressures?
15:37–17:46