Peak Trump? Bouncing back on hope of deals
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Why is today’s market behavior so different from yesterday’s?
Well it is a very different day today to yesterday. Why? Well there's more hope of trade deals crossing the line, but nothing concrete, just words from the US administration. And maybe we are getting close to a ceasefire for Ukraine as well, with Donald Trump and President Zelensky said to be meeting at the Pope's funeral this weekend to discuss it. Uh but maybe today is just a reaction to yesterday. Maybe it's just the bounce back and tomorrow Could be another badon. Let's see. Let's investigate. It's Wednesday. It's the 23rd of April 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar has bounced back up a little today. It's up naught point seven percent on the DXY, but the Aussie is down nort eight percent, the pound is down a third of one percent, the euro down naught point eight percent, so the Aussie now a little over sixty three point six US cents, and stocks in the US much higher.
At the close up two point seven percent for the Dow, two point seven percent for the Nasdaq as well, two and a half percent for the S P. Europe also rising, but not as much, half percent. for the Eurostocks fifty, not point four percent for the DAX, 0.6% for the close on the FTSE one hundred. And bond yields down today, but not a great deal. Just two basis points lower for ten year treasuries, down two basis points for ten year GILTs as well. Down three or four across much of Europe. Aussie ten years yesterday, they were down two basis points to four point two five percent, just one basis point lower than that now on futures. So no big bond moves anywhere really. And oil back up, two percent for WTI, one and a half percent for Brent, which is a little over sixty seven thirty a barrel, and gold well down, over one percent off spot gold.
So basically, uh no records today and largely a retreat from what happened yesterday.
How does Sally Auld’s presence calm market sentiment in the NAB morning call?
Things are much calmer, it seems. Maybe it's because Nab Sally Ald is on today and she brings calmness to proceedings wherever she goes. I didn't realise it had quite such a far-reaching effect. Effect though. Uh but uh today it is trade deals, sort of, isn't it? The the noises coming from the White House that we're getting close on some agreements, so Japan and India, for example, maybe moving in the right direction with China as well. So is that what it what it is today? It's just hope that we're gonna see some sorts of deals coming through?
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Yeah, I think that's right. So as you said, the White House said there are some high level agreements with Japan and India that are that are getting close. Um but I think and you know this has obviously given markets some some good news and and maybe you know this just reflects that we'd we'd sort of gone so far in one direction with a lot of bad news around uh around the trade situation and so we probably will as this ninety day pause continues, start to get incrementally better pieces of news uh that markets will respond to quite positively, even though there's not a lot of detail behind them. So, you know, yes, we know that there are high level agreements with Japan and India, but they're also saying, you know, the details uh are going to be worked out, you know, possibly over uh months and years.
So, you know, I guess what we take from all of this is that we don't have a deal, but what we do have is um a willingness to negotiate. So I guess that's a it's a positive first step. Uh and then there were also some comments from the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant who was speaking at an event where he he basically said to investors that the the tariff standoff between the US and China can't be sustained, you know, just simply because those effective tariff rates are so punitive. And you know, his expectation was that the two countries would find a way to de escalate. And, you know, sort of noting that that could take a couple of years to get to a trade agreement and that, you know, the negotiations had hadn't even started.
So, you know, yes, the headlines are are positive in the sense that they're not worse than what we already know, but I think when you when you get into the nuts and bolts or into the details, what they're really telling you is that um, you know, none of this is going to be resolved um, you know, in a in a sort of definite or or satisfactory fashion.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is today’s market behavior so different from yesterday’s?
0:01–1:41
2
How does Sally Auld’s presence calm market sentiment in the NAB morning call?
1:41–3:55
3
Why does the Treasury say the US‑China tariff standoff is unsustainable?
3:55–6:18
4
Could a Ukraine cease‑fire negotiated at the Pope’s funeral move markets?
6:18–8:47
5
What is driving the recent slump in the Magnificent Seven stocks and Tesla earnings?
8:47–11:02
6
What does the IMF forecast for US and global economic growth in 2025?
11:02–13:39
7
How will the upcoming PMI reports influence market expectations this month?
13:39–15:32
8
What are the key takeaways from today’s market call and the next earnings cycle?
15:32–17:12