Austan Goolsbee on How This Cycle Turned Out To Be So Different
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
Joe, how is your deep dish pizza?
It was so good. You know, I actually don't know if I had ever really had a proper Chicago deep dish pizza before. But I went to this place, I think it was called Pequad's Pizza. Yeah, Pequad's. And they sort of burned the crust a little bit, which I really like. Highly recommended. Seemed pretty legit as far as I could tell.
You definitely did the right thing 'cause I just went back to the airport to hop on a flight and I gotta say, O'Hare is kind of even worse than I remember it. But anyway, uh in case you haven't figured it out yet, we both just got back from Chicago where we interviewed the Chicago Fed president, Austin Goolsby.
That's right. First of all, Chicago's so nice this time of year. I l I love visiting Chicago. We you know, we we could have talked to Austin over Zoom or something, I guess. But it was great to actually go there, go to the Chicago Fed headquarters and talk to the president of the Chicago Fed. And what I have to say is an I think an extremely interesting sort of moment for Macro right now.
Oh, it is so interesting. I know people overuse the term turning points. Yeah. But I really feel like this is a very like specific moment in time where we thought the labor market was weakening, the Fed cut by fifty basis points, and then we had that blowout jobs report.
Yes.
And I have to say we recorded this interview with Austin on Wednesday, October ninth, which was the day before the latest CPI figure came out. Also, we recorded it right when the FOMC minutes came out. So not not the best planning in terms of timing on our part, but since then we've had CPI come in ever so slightly hotter. The next one. Than expected as well.
Yes, that's right. So as you mentioned, we recorded this Wednesday. You're listening to this presumably on a Friday. But even with the fact that like we couldn't talk about CPI, I think there's like really two things that make this moment interesting. And it's always interesting because we're never, you know, we live in a world of incomplete information on uncertainty. But the two things are really, and Austin talked about this in our interview, the Fed has changed focus, right? For a couple of years it was about inflation and getting it down, and now the risks are balanced. So that's a that's a key thing that happened, and I would say that Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall in August officially marked that moment of the pivot starting there.
And then the other thing is like, okay, maybe there's this pivot, but things right now are still really uncertain. And we really don't know what's gonna happen. And you mentioned the hot inflation number and the strong jobs report and all this stuff. So we're at a moment where pivot meets new uncertainty.
Yes. And who better to explain some of that uncertainty than Austin? So why don't we go ahead and take a listen? Here's Austin Goolsby from the Chicago Fed. Thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.
Welcome to Where the Magic Happens.
We are very excited to be in Chicago. I have to say, being in the Fed building, it's a gorgeous building, the architecture.
Yeah, it's a landmark. It's great. Yeah. It's uh it's over a hundred years old.
I heard you were celebrating the hundred year anniversary this year, right?
Uh last year
it was uh l yeah, last year.
Also we probably could have caught up with you via Zoom, but it's just such a great time to be in Chicago. Yeah.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:29
2
What prompted the Fed’s shift from focusing solely on inflation to also monitoring labor market risks?
5:29–8:05
3
What role did the strong September jobs report play in the Fed’s recent policy decisions?
8:05–9:07
4
How did the Fed’s monetary policy help bring down inflation without triggering a recession?
9:07–20:32
5
Why does Austan Goolsbee say the current business cycle is fundamentally different from past cycles?
20:32–48:52
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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