Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026
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What did the 2025 economy and equity markets look like and why is 2026 expected to be different?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.
Joe, we always start these the same with someone saying it's that time of year. And
then I say it's the most wonderful time of year. That's right.
Never changes.
Yeah, and it's a great time, you know, we make New Year's resolutions the time of year. We go back, we give we make our lists of top ten things that happened, predictions. That's what you're supposed to news gets a little quiet often around the holidays. So we make up for it by just looking back and looking forward.
And then a year later we completely forget what everyone said about the current year and we just move on and do the next year. That's right. Always forward looking. Although I do think, you know, 2026 shaping up to be an interesting year for a variety of reasons. We just had a CPI number that came out surprisingly softer than a lot of people expected. Some people say unrealistically softer with zero percent shelter cost increase. So that was interesting. We're gonna have a new Fed chairman.
Yeah.
There's still a question mark over the impact of tariffs, whether we're waiting to see those show up and what's gonna happen with unemployment as well. That's been ticking up.
And then it's been this really incredible year, obviously, in the stock market. The US stock market just continues year after year after year, with a few exceptions here and there, but not many, uh putting up massive numbers. And so the question is like, how long is this realistic? Especially given, you know, all the concerns about concentration and a handful of names, some of which haven't really been doing so well lately. And so uh so many questions on both the real economy. And the uh stock market.
Yeah, there's definitely been some dispersion creeping into some of the big AI names or the tech names. All right. Well, I'm happy to say we do, in fact, have the perfect guests plural. We've got two. So we're going to be speaking with Jan Hatsias. He's the chief economist and head of research at Goldman Sachs. He's been on the show a number of times before, and we like talking to him at least once a year. And Ben Snyder, he is the chief U.S. equity strategist replacing. David Coston. So thank you both for coming on All Thoughts.
Thanks so much for having us. Great to be here.
Is research outlook time is that actually a quiet time for you guys?
It's not a quiet time. Normally we actually do it about six weeks earlier. Yeah. Because actually November tends to be a little bit better than December, but because of the shutdown and the dearth of data, we decided to push it back. It's completely under our control when we do it and why do it at a time when you actually have much less information than normal. So we pushed out a number of reports yesterday, including the global economic and markets outlook.
Can you talk the two of you maybe again? So obviously different roles, but on the same team. And obviously the stock market, US equity market is different from the economy. And you can have years where the economy is fine, stocks are bad, and vice versa, all different permutations and combinations. But how do you think about being in alignment cross-team? And so that roughly you're sort of working under a similar set of assumptions.
Yeah, I can talk about that and not just with respect to the US or global economic outlook versus stock market outlook, but of course there's currencies, there's EM economies, there's commodities. Uh certainly on the macro side, I would say we're on the coordinated side of the spectrum.
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Chapters
3 chapters
1
What did the 2025 economy and equity markets look like and why is 2026 expected to be different?
0:00–12:48
2
How do Jan Hatzius and Ben Snider explain the role of AI and productivity in the 2025 GDP growth?
12:48–33:32
3
What were the biggest drivers of the monster equity rally in 2025 and how sustainable is it?
33:32–48:11
Speakers
6 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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