How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins
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Is the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Outlaws Podcast. I'm Jill Wiesenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, we can't go too long without talking about the role of the dollar in the United States, the pillar of the global financial system, whether there is some threat to it or not. We are recording this July seventeenth. It has been a fresh week of headlines about, say, independence of the Federal Reserve and all of the things that we talk about all of the time. So we sort of need to return to this central question.
Yeah. The interesting thing about the Fed chair drama is when the initial headlines came out about Trump possibly firing Powell, the big reaction wasn't the dollar, right? It wasn't in markets. It wasn't even bonds. It was the currency.
Totally. And I think this is one of those things where I don't know. We don't know what's gonna happen, whether Trump will actually try to find cause to fire Powell. Who knows what will even happen by the time people are listening to this episode. But, you know, I think people get the sense that with the Fed share, with many other things, there is this sort of like erosion of an existing set of norms or expectations, et cetera. And so, you know, I think arguably some damage, for better or worse, has already been done to the existing institutional arrangement. Everyone around the world is paying attention, not to mention the sort of arbitrariness or volatility. of uh tariff policy. ongoing wars and so forth.
Much isn't change. We live in interesting times.
Here's what I think.
Go on.
So it's a cliche in financial market commentary to talk about a major turning point. Right. Because we've seen people talk about the death of the dollar for for decades. Yeah. Exactly. But that said, I think what's different about now is the number of like long term secular trends that appear to be reversing.
On the move.
Yeah. So, you know, there's globalization going from deglobalization, there's population growth going to shrinking populations. There's higher inflation instead of years and years of deflation. And the interesting thing about that is of course, how are people going to react to that? How are markets gonna react to that, especially when they've grown very, very used to the previous situation through, you know, back testing and all of that stuff.
Totally. And I'll just say one thing, which makes this very interesting timing-wise from the perspective of investors, because there is a lot, there are a lot of trends that seem to be, if not going in reverse, at least a new direction, et cetera. One trend that hasn't got really gone in reverse, however, is you are still getting paid a lot to own US Tech. And, you know, US markets, they're up solidly on the year. They are underperforming. Which is that is new. Global equities have outperformed US equities in large part this year. But this basic idea that where all the money to be made is as an investor is still in like a handful of US companies, like that in a way, surprisingly, is still kind of intact.
And the question is, will that be like the last sort of the shoe to drop or the end of US exceptionalism from just the process? perspective of a globally oriented portfolio manager.
I think that's a good thing to watch. I'm gonna pull a page out of Bob Brackett's Commodities Energy Transition book and say that these types of transitions often take longer than people expect. You shouldn't expect everything to happen all at once. It's gonna happen in stages. So there's a lot to look out for, a lot to discuss.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Is the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency?
0:00–4:56
2
What long‑term secular trends are reversing and why do they matter for investors?
4:56–11:16
3
How will global demographics and shrinking workforces reshape growth prospects?
11:16–17:48
4
Can the world’s record‑high sovereign debt levels become a tipping point for markets?
17:48–24:31
5
Will AI boost productivity enough to offset slower growth and higher inflation?
24:31–30:32
6
How should investors rethink risk – volatility versus purchasing‑power preservation?
30:32–38:17
7
What role can real assets like gold, real estate, and private debt play in a post‑dollar world?
38:17–44:21
8
What practical portfolio changes can investors make today to prepare for multiple regime shifts?
44:21–48:41
Speakers
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