How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further
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What is the overall impact of the Iran‑U.S. conflict on American farm margins?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
Joe, there's a running joke on this podcast. There's a few of them. But one of the running jokes is farmers are always complaining about something.
They are. They are always complaining about something. But you know what? It's okay. We need to eat to live. Food is pretty important for sort of human civilization flourishing, etcetera. So if the worst is that they complain a little bit about how much uh they're getting for their corn or whatever, I'm okay with that.
Well, to be fair, we also know that one of the defining news stories of the past few decades has been the hollowing out of America's small scale agricultural industry and farmers. So if you are an independent farmer, there is a lot to complain about, to be fair.
Totally. And again, with the caveat that it's always tough. Very recently, a couple of weeks ago, we did the episode about surging fertilizer prices. In that conversation, you know, we talked about the fertilizer to corn chart and it is not a good ratio, right? You know, there are many ways to represent an industry, but if you just wanted one, that's a very clean way. Fertilizer prices way up, obviously, given the situation in Iran. Corn prices not nearly anywhere close to their all-time highs or anything like that. So just by at least one measure, that is a clear squeeze.
Right. So we recorded our fertilizer episode, I guess a week or two ago at this point. I think at the time when we were discussing it. the the possibility that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could actually push up fertilizer pri prices. A lot of people weren't necessarily that aware of this dynamic. Since then it has gone very mainstream and you have officials in the US government talking about sourcing alternative Fertilizer from Morocco or Venezuela to try to offset some of the pain. There is some slightly good news if you are a farmer, which is that we are seeing grain prices start to go up. But to your point, again, it is not at all clear that it's going to be enough to offset higher input costs like fertilizer or oil.
Totally. Well anyway, you know, we did that episode several weeks ago about what it was like to do uh agribusiness in tough markets, like particularly Venezuela, Ukraine, and so forth. And I recall at the very end of that conversation, and this was obviously before the fertilizer spike. Yeah. Our guests who we were talking to said, we got a good history lesson about Venezuela and Ukraine. But they also said at some point we should talk about the pain that American farmers are in right now. And so then, so that was already the condition. There was sort of this tease, things weren't great. Then you get the fertilizer spike. So it's like it seems like a good time to have that conversation.
How have fertilizer prices spiked and what does that mean for planting decisions?
Yeah.
We were gonna wait a little bit to do that episode, but it turns out that now is actually the perfect time for the perfect guests once again. We are going to be speaking with Jeff Kazan and Mike Rolfson. They are the founders of Agris Academy. So, Jeff and Mike, thank you so much for coming back on Odlots. Really appreciate it. First question, you know, when we spoke to you last time, we were very focused on Venezuela and Ukraine and your experience working at Cargill earlier. earlier, but can you just tell us what Agris Academy actually does? Jeff, why don't we start with you?
Yeah, thanks uh for having us on again. So Agris Academy is not a broker and advisory business.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the overall impact of the Iran‑U.S. conflict on American farm margins?
0:01–3:31
2
How have fertilizer prices spiked and what does that mean for planting decisions?
3:31–9:07
3
Who are Jeff Kazin and Mike Rolfson and what does Agris Academy do for farmers?
9:07–14:19
4
What does the current U.S. planting calendar look like and how are farmers choosing crops?
14:19–21:08
5
Why are land values and rental rates a major cost driver for producers today?
21:08–28:18
6
How do storage capacity and cash‑flow considerations shape grain marketing choices?
28:18–35:14
7
What role do trade policies, tariffs and foreign competition play in the current squeeze?
35:14–42:19
8
What practical risk‑management advice are the guests giving farmers right now?
42:19–49:34
Speakers
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