Jeffrey Gundlach Says Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued
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Why does Jeff Gundlach say almost all financial assets are now overvalued?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLots podcast. I'm Traci Alloway.
And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.
Joe, we're still in celebratory mode.
Yes.
10-year anniversary. It's 10-year anniversary month,
really. Yeah. And even next month, kind of 10-year anniversary month. So we can just extend this for a long
time. We could just make this, well, we should have made 2025 the OddLots 10-year anniversary year.
Yeah.
But we're almost at the end of the year. That's right. We failed in that respect. But- Obviously, we're sort of reflecting on the past decade or so at oddlots and things that have or haven't changed in markets. And one thing I've been thinking about a lot is what's been going on in the bond market.
Yeah. Well, I think, look, there is nothing that's more different in 2025 versus 2015 than what's going on in fixed income. So
you say that, and it is true. If you look at the benchmark 10-year yield, okay, sure, we're at 4% now, above 4%. And in 2015, we were at like 2%, right? That's changed. And we went through inflation, which is something we hadn't experienced for a pretty long time in previous years. But- I also feel like it's changed, but a lot of it hasn't. A lot of the discussions haven't changed. If I think about what we were discussing back in 2015, it was stuff like who's going to buy U.S. treasuries? Who's going to fund the U.S. deficit? Bond vigilantes.
I mean,
how many years have we been talking about bond vigilantes now? The credit market, it was whether or not investors are being adequately compensated
for the
risk they're taking on. And the funny thing is now, you know, if you look at spreads on junk rated bonds, if you didn't think they were being adequately compensated at like 7.2% in 2015, I wonder what you think when you look at spreads of 6.4% in 2025. Yeah.
This is a really good point, actually, because especially lately, obviously, we've had all of these. You know, we've had a number of credit events,
these
little blowups. Jamie Dimon used the term cockroaches, et cetera. But by and large, spreads, which were sort of infamously narrow last decade, remain quite narrow by historical terms.
I feel like we should just mention here, we are recording on November 10th. Things are changing fast in the credit market. There's a little bit of nervousness creeping in, but you're absolutely right. By and large, spreads are at pretty low levels and people have been complaining about it for a long time now. Well, speaking of credit, you also have the rise of private credit, which is something we were talking about even back in 2015. I wasn't.
You were.
Well, no. We both were. But we called it something different. We called it shadow banks and BBCs and all of that.
Yeah. But that is a space that's much bigger, much more interest, much more scrutiny. I mean, just a whole, you know, orders of magnitude bigger since 2015. I don't think people have any real handle on like what risk scenarios look like, the quality of the underwriting,
et
cetera. So this is definitely something. And it's, you know, we've been talking about it for years, but it continues to grow. And with some of these, quote, cockroaches, et cetera, more interest in what's really going on.
Right. So things have changed, but things have also kind of stayed the same in some respects. But I'm very happy to say we do, in fact, have the perfect guest to talk about all of this. Someone who has been writing and conversing and going on TV and talking about a lot of these things. And
making a great career directly
investing
in all of these
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Why does Jeff Gundlach say almost all financial assets are now overvalued?
0:01–6:05
2
How have Treasury yields and the long‑term bond market changed since 2015?
6:05–15:37
3
What is driving the current “powder‑keg” risk in private credit markets?
15:37–26:11
4
Why does Gundlach believe the secular decline in long‑term rates is over?
26:11–36:44
5
How should investors re‑balance equities, fixed income, and international exposure in today’s market?
36:44–49:32
6
Why is gold highlighted as a top‑performing asset and how much should investors allocate to it?
49:32–59:04
7
What are the potential scenarios for U.S. debt‑service pressures and Treasury interventions?
59:04–1:01:17
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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