Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market
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Why is the lack of official jobs data a problem for the economy right now?
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Do you guys know what today is?
It's our ten year anniversary because everyone keeps sending us messages. I know we only
we knew we only knew the I didn't realize that today was the actual ten year anniversary until I started getting emails from random people this morning. It was like, Oh happy ten years. Random
Bloomberg people too. Oh I thought
I would be the first to remove. Oh yeah. Sorry, Dad.
It in our hearts you were the first, D.
Yes, ten years ago today, the first episode of Odlots. I do have uh I I forget who sent this to me. I I have a
mug. Uh yeah, so happy anniversary to us.
Happy birthday to us. Happy birthday. What did you get me? I guess it's
a little weird. Happy anniversary to us. Happy birthday to uh Odlots. Um and uh You know what I didn't get you anything. I
know you didn't. I I wait. I wait with bated breath for a gift from Joe, one of these days.
You know what? Um no, that's not true. I've gotten your gift.
Name one.
I always bring back sweets when I travel. Um everyone does that. I know, I guess that doesn't count.
What does the ten‑year anniversary of the podcast reveal about its hosts and tone?
You're right. You know what would be a really wonderful gift? What? Uh fresh jobs data.
Oh yes.
I did a deadlift. I
am both the most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel.
Feta's going viral.
Uh barges.
This is an after school special, except
I've decided I'm gonna base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US. Black gold! These are the the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world? No, I think No, I
think that like in a couple years the AI will do a really good job of making the Outlaws podcast. One day that person will have the mandate of heaven.
How do I get more popular and successful?
We do have the perfect gift.
You're listening to Lots More, where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now.
Because even when the odd lots is over, there's always lots more.
And we really do have the perfect guest. I don't know about you guys, but I did not expect to miss the NFP as much as I I am at the moment. I just thought, you know, we have all the alt data, things will be fine. It
doesn't hit the same, does it, Connor? It doesn't matter. I mean ADP,
like having to care about ADP is just the worst.
Yeah, like all these estimates or whatever, it's like it just doesn't even if you know it's coming out, it doesn't hit the same there's nothing like uh just
Chicago Fed estimate of unemployment, like all right, Austin Goolsby, I like you, but come on, not not the same.
Well wait,
we gotta get him on here and
Okay, so the one upside of not having the official data, the official jobs data, because of the government shutdown, is everyone gets to be really mean about the alt data, right? And say like really harsh things about why they don't like ADP. But could someone just remind me why we hate ADP? Oh
yeah. What's wrong with it, Conrad?
I mean, it's always they revise it to the BLS data. So it's like here's our estimate. And then six months later you revise it. So then the historical data looks fine, but in the moment it's actually not the same at all.
It's interesting because you know, people always say like ADP, oh it missed again. But it is a little weird and it gets to I think some philosophical things which aren't necessarily worth diving into for a conversation about what does it even mean to be right or wrong? I mean, NFP gets revised all the time, NFP is just a model for the real economy. You know, a little confusing the map and the territory stuff. Anyway, when people are listening to this, it should have been jobs day and so I don't really think
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
Why is the lack of official jobs data a problem for the economy right now?
0:00–1:33
2
What does the ten‑year anniversary of the podcast reveal about its hosts and tone?
1:33–8:59
3
Why do the hosts criticize ADP as a labor‑market indicator?
8:59–14:58
4
How are recent layoffs and the Challenger report reshaping the US labor market?
14:58–21:26
5
What role, if any, is AI playing in current hiring and job‑cut decisions?
21:26–23:23
Speakers
6 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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