Lots More on Why Neil Dutta Is Sticking With His Recession Call
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How did President Trump's tariff pause and reversal spark market volatility?
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Radio, News. What do you think? Recession or no recession?
I mean You had a really good piece out this week in the newsletter where you made the point, and I had made a similar point the day earlier. So maybe I'm not being so nice, but like how much of all the market action, all the economic action, I guess, was actually dependent on just one guy, Donald Trump. And that, you know, if he came out and said something, he could end the chaos at any moment in time. And then on Wednesday he actually came out and did that. And then Kind of. Kind of.
Why does Neil Dutta believe a recession is still likely despite the tariff news?
Kind of. Well, so your point was Well now, so look.
Yeah.
If he does that, we can all go back to worrying about like a slowdown in the labor market or deep seek threatening AI, which so much capital investment in the US actually depends on.
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I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel.
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We do have the perfect guest. Welcome to Lots More, where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now.
Because even when oddlots is over, there's always lots more.
And we really do have the perfect guest. You know who had a really good contribution to the Outlaw's newsletter? February twenty twenty-fourth. Basically, the market top. Neil Dutta sees rising risks to the labor market, calling recession risks right then, essentially at the market top. We got him back on. Neil, yesterday after Trump walked it back, by the way, we're talking to Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, Trump walked back some of the tariffs.
What are the rising risks to the U.S. labor market that could trigger a downturn?
Goldman pulled its recession call. You sent out an email right away. You said, I'm sticking with my recession call. Why do you see recession in the cards? In 2025 still.
So remember that, you know, for me it's it's not really about An NBER defined recession. Like that to me is not the name of the game. The name of the game is trying to translate an economic view into a market call. And Even if it's not technically a recession. It might as well be because The underlying problem for the market. is not going away. And that's the issue. You know, all the things I mentioned in that newsletter you you uh highlighted in February, that's all here. That's still here, right? We still have a situation where labor incomes are slowing and the Fed's not budging. We still have a situation where mortgage rates are high and the housing market is weak. And we still have state and local governments cutting back.
And we still have a pretty high volume on trade. I mean, in terms of tensions, just because we Dialed it back a little bit yesterday doesn't mean that the tensions are not still high.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How did President Trump's tariff pause and reversal spark market volatility?
0:00–1:41
2
Why does Neil Dutta believe a recession is still likely despite the tariff news?
1:41–3:11
3
What are the rising risks to the U.S. labor market that could trigger a downturn?
3:11–4:46
4
How are tariffs and trade tensions affecting corporate investment and growth expectations?
4:46–6:29
5
In what ways could higher tariffs translate into inflation and consumer‑price pressure?
6:29–8:44
6
Why is the services sector, especially leisure and hospitality, a key vulnerability right now?
8:44–10:15
7
What does the stock market tell us about macro risk and the likelihood of a recession?
10:15–12:30
8
What are Neil Dutta’s outlook and recommendations for investors looking ahead to 2025?
12:30–14:17
Speakers
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