Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century
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Why does Michael Cembalest call AI the “bet of the century” for the stock market?
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Hello, Odlots listeners. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, we're doing another live show, and it's right here in New York City.
Yeah, this one should be our biggest yet. And we're gonna have a bunch of Odlots favorites and uh do something maybe a little different to some of our previous uh live podcast recordings.
When the guests are revealed, the show is gonna sell out right away. So you should really just go get your ticket right now. It's June twenty sixth. It's at Racket NYC, and you can find a ticket link at Bloomberg dot com slash oddlots or Bloomberg Events dot com slash oddlots live NY.
We hope to see you there.
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
Joe, does it feel to you like every day when you wake up in markets there is a new sort of dominant narrative? And often it is the exact opposite of the narrative that was dominant a day or two ago.
Go on. Say more what you mean. Where are you going with this? I mean I agree in some sense, but I think you have something specific in mind.
Well, no, I actually have a bunch of things in mind. So for instance, uh, you know, recently there was a lot of talk about the bond vigilantes coming back and people worried about the fiscal deficit. Yeah. And then this week that seems to have suddenly gone away, or at least it's not the only thing people are talking about. Tariffs, uh, you know, obviously we had the big market freakout in April, and then we had subsequent delays and extensions. Of the deadlines. I don't hear people talking about tariffs as much as they were in April. Yeah. So So
and then through it all is, you know, on days when we don't have to talk about tariffs or bomb vigilantes, then we immediately turn to AI. Well, this is what I was saying. So this is like you know, so this is the thing. There's like this default thing that's in the background, which is AI. And then that of course leads to things like power and electricity and so forth. So yes, I now see what you're saying, which is that on any given day, it's like you spin the roulette. Wheel or the Wheel of Fortune, and then it's like okay, it's the it's an AI day. Actually we're recording this May twenty eighth, by the time people are listening to this, and video earnings are gonna be out. Oh yeah. And so today is an AI day.
Tomorrow might be. What I was gonna say is one of our previous guests, Victor Schwetz over at Macquarie, he framed it really well, where he was basically saying, if you know, if you can't gauge what the dominant narrative is gonna be every day, or if everything that's happening is so volatile and so dramatic and we're talking about really big changes, then you kind of have to go back to doing the normal thing. And the normal thing before all of this kind of started in the new year was worrying about AI, right? Yeah. And thinking about AI and whether or not the, you know, all of that AI spending is gonna be backed by revenue. So on that note, that's what we're gonna do today. We're we're gonna go back to normality, although we are gonna talk about some of the uh current stuff as well.
And I am very pleased to say we have someone who I have wanted to get on the podcast for For a really long time. And he's finally sort of been let out into the wild. Me too. So we are very excited. We're going to be speaking with Michael Sembelest. He is, of course, the chairman of market and investment strategy for JP Morgan Asset Management.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why does Michael Cembalest call AI the “bet of the century” for the stock market?
0:00–7:42
2
How dominant is AI in today’s market valuations and earnings growth?
7:42–15:50
3
What evidence is there that corporate AI spending is translating into real profits?
15:50–22:36
4
Can smaller companies compete with the U.S. big‑tech giants in the AI race?
22:36–30:43
5
How is the surge in AI compute reshaping North‑American energy demand?
30:43–39:35
6
Why is Michael Cembalest skeptical about the future of small modular nuclear reactors?
39:35–47:08
7
Is NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem an impenetrable moat or are there viable chip challengers?
47:08–53:38
8
What are the key investment takeaways from the AI, tech‑moat and energy discussions?
53:38–1:01:22
Speakers
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