The Greatest Ever Panel on the World's Most Important Market
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Hello and welcome to a very special episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
So, what you are about to hear has the very, very modest title of the best ever panel on the world's most important market, that is the US Treasury market, of course. This was recorded live at our New York event on June 26th.
That's right. We had our recent odd lots live event in New York. And there's so much going on in the treasury markets. There's questions about rates. There's questions about foreign demand. There's questions about liquidity and the capacity of existing treasury market infrastructure to handle all of the volume of debt out there. So we wanted to gather some of our favorite people to actually understand what's going on.
Yep, who's gonna buy all the bonds? And we did indeed have an absolutely amazing panel. So we had Nellie Lang. She is a senior fellow over at the Brookings Institution. She is also the former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance. We had Ira Jersey, who you might remember from a previous episode. He is the chief U.S. interest rate strategist over at Bloomberg Intelligence. And finally, we had an odd lot. favorite, Josh Younger. He is a lecturer at Columbia University, among many other things. So we hope you enjoy. Take a listen.
So uh is anyone worried about who's gonna buy the debt?
Who goes first for that one? Well I'll I I mean I guess I'll start. Um I I'm not worried about who's going to buy the debt. Um, you know, when when we think about markets generally, and especially markets for sovereign debt of large countries that are relatively liquid, there will be a buyer. Now, the price might change. And I think that's one of the things we have seen somewhat in recent weeks when you have somewhat of a slowing economy in the US. certainly see like two-year yields have actually gone down, you know, better part of 50 basis points over the near term. Basis. But the long end hasn't done very much at all. And I think that that is at least in part an indication that there are some people who are a little bit scared to buy that debt without having some type of premium put onto it.
So it it'll get bought. The question is at what price? And that's different, right? Like I'm an investment strategist. I'm not a policymaker, right? And and I think that there's some people who kind of mess that up with what like our job is. When Nelly was at the Treasury Department, she had a much different you know view of the world that she had to do as opposed to what we do as investors.
Well, I mean, on that note, it is true that we have more, I would say, price sensitive buyers in the market than we used to, right? So we used to have a lot of central banks, a lot of sovereign wealth funds. They're still there. But compared to domestic buyers, um, retail, like that has grown a lot more. Nellie, does that change the way you think about debt versus, you know, some years ago? Absolutely.
So Said prices will adjust, there will be a buyer, but it used to be decades ago, we just had a much more stable investor base, central banks, foreign funds.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–4:49
2
What is the purpose of this special Treasury market panel and who are the guests?
4:49–7:22
3
Why are investors worried about who will buy all the U.S. Treasury debt?
7:22–13:54
4
How has the composition of Treasury buyers changed from central banks to domestic investors?
13:54–31:09
Speakers
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