This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, we're recording this March twenty-fifth, twenty twenty sixth. It's nine, ten AM in the Are
you gonna do the seconds as well?
No But the reason I do mention the time where the cash trading and the stock market hasn't opened, the reason I mentioned the time is not just because things are moving fast, but to establish we've had market moving headlines already this morning. Oh, absolutely. So just in the last like 15, 20 minutes, we got some headlines attributed to the FARS News Agency out of Iran saying there is no interest in talks, there's no interest in ceasefire, the U.S. position about pre Pursuing a ceasefire is a logical, that mood futures down a little bit. We're, you know, it's a cliche, you know, a headline driven market. You hear that a lot. The last several weeks have felt like the headline driven market to drive all headline driven markets.
No, it really I know it's a cliche, but it really is a headline driven market. And I think part of the issue here is because no one's entirely sure what the goals are when it comes to Iran, it's really hard to judge progress of the conflict on any sort of fundamental basis, right? So all you can look at is basically what Trump and the other two sides are saying. And so you get these big reactions every time. they tweet something or post on Truth Social and then tend to contradict each other.
Absolutely. And you know, I do think look, there is this extreme level of skepticism from almost any headline you get out of the US White House. I think if you go back to the post-liberation day environment, particularly with these sort of modest rapprochement with China, you would get these headlines, we're talking, and then the Chinese would put out a headline, we're not talking. But then it turns out that there was a little bit more talk than what maybe the Chinese side had admitted to. So often I think as much as you dis is many people are inclined to disbelieve headlines and I don't think people disbelieve them entirely. When Trump said yesterday that the Iranians had sent him a prize that was extremely valuable, and it's like, who I mean, that's tough to take seriously.
But what is there some modest signal? I don't know. It's really tough. It's really tough. But I, you know, I just want to say two other things real quickly on this, which is that even with the headlines today about Iran rejecting ceasefire, futures are still up. So it's not like people have like Like completely, oh, nothing's happening. And for all the talk about, and we've had multiple guests, and I they're the smartest people in the world talk about oh, oil is gonna surge the longer this goes on, as of the time we're talking about this. Brent crude is still right around or just under a hundred dollars. We haven't had the mega surge yet. So I like to take markets seriously, even if sometimes I don't always understand what they're doing.
Well, the big question to me is whether or not markets are still in denial, right?
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:21
2
Why is the market described as “headline‑driven” during the Iran conflict?
5:21–8:08
3
How are traders interpreting conflicting tweets and Truth‑Social posts about Iran?
8:08–22:05
4
What does Ozan Tarman say about the potential equity squeeze and oil price outlook?
22:05–43:00
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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