Trump Economic Advisor, Stephen Miran, on Tariffs and Tax Cuts
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots Podcast. I'm Jill Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Such a cliche to say that there is a lot going on right now.
How did the latest CPI numbers affect the administration’s economic outlook?
But there's a lot going on. It is CPI Day today.
Yes, it was. And it came in softer than expected. Actually, it was a really unexpected figure. I think all the economists surveyed by Bloomberg uh had the number higher than what it came in as. And so kind of a surprise.
Kind of a surprise, of course, when the tariffs were announced in early April. Some people, you know, a lot of people reasonably thought they were gonna go up. So far, four straight months of cooling to the downside. But we obviously that means we have A, a lot of just sort of straight up macro uncertainty and B a lot of policy uncertainty still between both the ongoing trade discussions and of course, you know, the one big beautiful bill and what's gonna happen on uh taxes and spending.
In short, there is a lot to talk about.
We really do have the perfect guest, I think, to talk about all of this. We're gonna be speaking with uh Steven Myron. He is the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors at the White House. So we can ask him all these questions about the state of the economy and policy. Uh Steven, thank you so much for coming on Oddlots.
Look, thanks for having me. I've been a big fan for a long time and it's a real honor and a privilege to be here.
Amazing. We're going to clip that and uh send send that around. All right. If CPI had come in hot today, I would have started with a question on that, but I'm not going to start uh by giving you a softball on CPI. I'm curious about the other side. Right now, how do you perceive the momentum on labor in this economy or just the growth momentum on this economy? How robust is it?
What is the current momentum in the labor market and how robust is it?
Look, I think that the economic data have been coming in pretty good. And you mentioned CPI, you mentioned inflation. I I do think it's worth noting that In all four months since the president was inaugurated, inflation CPI is surprised to the downside. And I think that was very much in contrast to lots of people's expectations. And we also, you know, experienced the same on the upside, right? We had three, three beats in a row on Jobs Day for jobs numbers. I think that, you know, the underlying economy is has been pretty healthy. There has been whipping around of the sentiment data, but I think that the correlation. Between the sentiment data and the real economic activity has really declined in recent years.
The sentiment data are driven by stocks, right? And volatility in financial markets. They're driven by political sentiment and people's reactions to policy if they like it or if they don't like it. But there's been minimal connection between the two of them. And if you look at the real economic data, it's been pretty good. And yeah, okay, so the first quarter GDP print was, you know. A hair negative, but if you looked at underlying private, you know, final domestic demand, which strips out the really volatile components like inventories and imports, you know, that was high twos, almost three percent, right? You know, so like underlying growth in the first quarter was pretty good. Then, you know, the GDP trackers for the second quarter seem like they're 3% plus, almost 4%.
You know, I think it's really hard, you know. I think I think you really got to squint to find uh you know sort of bad news in the economic data.
Okay, Tracy, so the Fed doesn't need to cut is what I'm here.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–1:03
2
How did the latest CPI numbers affect the administration’s economic outlook?
1:03–2:27
3
What is the current momentum in the labor market and how robust is it?
2:27–8:06
4
How much tariff revenue is the administration expecting and why does it matter for the deficit?
8:06–12:00
5
Why is extending the 2017 tax cuts essential to the “Big, Beautiful Bill”?
12:00–16:36
6
How is the U.S. addressing rare‑earth dependence on China?
16:36–18:35
7
What impact do immigration policies have on employment and wage growth?
18:35–43:02
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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